theweatheroutlook

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The Beast from the East
03 December 2022 18:50:00
Not bad ECM tonight. Messy but the hurricane is undercutting rather than blasting through
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0 
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
03 December 2022 18:53:02
Cold air stays in place and deep cold over Scandi at last

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=0&map=1&type=0&archive=0 
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
03 December 2022 18:57:06
A happy ending to ECM
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
03 December 2022 19:00:50
Probably a colder option in the ens, but if it comes off it will be a massive shock to people. I hear people complaining about how "cold" it is now. Just wait! Council warm banks and wetherspoons will be filling up 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Ally Pally Snowman
03 December 2022 19:02:27
Yes Much better ECM tonight.  But overall output remains volatile.  
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Tom Oxon
03 December 2022 19:21:34
I'm never on board until the ECM is on board, and the ECM is still on board tonight 👍
S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
squish
03 December 2022 19:29:34
Presumably you were onboard then 👍
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Taylor1740
03 December 2022 19:54:13
Increasing signs that this will be quite a short lived cold spell maybe 5-7 days at most. Long cold spells lasting more than 7 days are rare so we shouldn't be surprised if this one breaks down after a week or so.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Jiries
03 December 2022 19:58:38

Probably a colder option in the ens, but if it comes off it will be a massive shock to people. I hear people complaining about how "cold" it is now. Just wait! Council warm banks and wetherspoons will be filling up 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Something have to be done regarding the enery bills if the serious cold coming next week now is 4 days left before the cold strike 
Otherwise very interesting and being in the Midlands are in good spot for snowfall.
doctormog
03 December 2022 20:04:32

Increasing signs that this will be quite a short lived cold spell maybe 5-7 days at most. Long cold spells lasting more than 7 days are rare so we shouldn't be surprised if this one breaks down after a week or so.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



I'd possibly be a bit more circumspect if I had repeatedly highlighted that mild SWlies looked likely for the period we are in at the moment. Best to take it a day at a time as a week is a long time in weatherland. The ensemble data indicate below average temperatures to one extent or another for the duration. Yes, of course we could say things may change but that's guesswork.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
nsrobins
03 December 2022 20:05:04

Increasing signs that this will be quite a short lived cold spell maybe 5-7 days at most. Long cold spells lasting more than 7 days are rare so we shouldn't be surprised if this one breaks down after a week or so.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



Looking for the breakdown before the cold spell has even (properly) arrived is definitely not good for your health and something I can never understand.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Tom Oxon
03 December 2022 20:15:53

Presumably you were onboard then 👍

Originally Posted by: squish 



Still on board over here!
S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
Tom Oxon
03 December 2022 20:31:30
Still some milder members but the ECM op is still with the pack
UserPostedImage
S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
Rob K
03 December 2022 21:04:07

Still some milder members but the ECM op is still with the pack
UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Tom Oxon 


That red one looks fun. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
03 December 2022 21:05:54

GEFS control
is stunning !! 

Originally Posted by: squish 


It keeps the hurricane way out to the SW and kills it west of the Azores, that makes all the difference. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Downpour
03 December 2022 21:06:53

Increasing signs that this will be quite a short lived cold spell maybe 5-7 days at most. Long cold spells lasting more than 7 days are rare so we shouldn't be surprised if this one breaks down after a week or so.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



It's a tricky one to forecast to be honest. I've not been on board since the start but the signs are there that we might get something interesting this time. I wouldn't bother looking at the 5-7 day timeframe as things will shift and shake umpteen times before then.

On balance: chilly but no cigar for most.

But it's a rapidly moving picture. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Taylor1740
03 December 2022 21:36:02

It's a tricky one to forecast to be honest. I've not been on board since the start but the signs are there that we might get something interesting this time. I wouldn't bother looking at the 5-7 day timeframe as things will shift and shake umpteen times before then.

On balance: chilly but no cigar for most.

But it's a rapidly moving picture. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 


yes all to play for still of course, and a colder spell looks almost certain at least for a time now, but it does take something exceptional to deliver widespread snow and a prolonged period of subzero temperatures to lowland areas of the UK.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
+1
LeedsLad123
03 December 2022 21:50:42
We tend to do well here in marginal setups so I'm not too concerned either way. We've had good spells of snow for the past couple of winters whereas areas further east closer to sea level like York have had nothing. 
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
03 December 2022 21:54:53

Still some milder members but the ECM op is still with the pack
UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Tom Oxon 



It was 00z when you posted but is now 12z. I'll leave you and others to decide upgrade or downgrade. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
squish
03 December 2022 22:09:15
This period reminds me of Feb 2009. Obviously earlier in the season is better for long term prospects as a whole, but less favourable for any deep cold to draw on just yet. But it's a very interesting start to the season nonetheless
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Rob K
03 December 2022 22:15:49
Looks like slightly weaker heights over Greenland on the 18Z GFS but at the same time the cold has made it a bit further south. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
nsrobins
03 December 2022 22:16:25
That pseudo-sub tropical 'Atlanticane' really is something. Whatever happens with regard the cold spell, that feature is interesting in itself. 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
squish
03 December 2022 22:21:21
The scandi high looks more dominant at +180 on the 18z
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Rob K
03 December 2022 22:22:19

That pseudo-sub tropical 'Atlanticane' really is something. Whatever happens with regard the cold spell, that feature is interesting in itself. 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


The weather gods will come up with anything to try and derail a promising bit of northern blocking for the UK 😀
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
fairweather
03 December 2022 22:24:38
It's a tricky one this. I remember buying new plastic sledges for my grandsons back in about 2013. They are 16 and 20 now and the sledges never used. The 16 year old has just said he heard it's going to snow next week. I told him it would be cold but the chances of any snow settling in Essex were very slim. The third generation of snow lovers in my family(why is it genetic?) but he has a tougher road ahead I fear. 😒
S.Essex, 42m ASL

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