GFS 06z shows quite a lengthy cold period with a breakdown starting around 16/12. I still think that's the period which needs watching closely.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

The all time UK record of -27.2C has happened 3 times in Scotland (all shown above). Notice the synoptics are near identical, and that there will be synoptics like the above appearing on multiple occasions. All we need is some decent snow cover (and this is N scotland so that shouldn't be hard). Imagine if 2022 saw both the hottest temperature and coldest temperature ever recorded?
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

1995 did that from 35C in August to -27.2C within 5 months that a range of 62.2C so this year 40.3C to ? If anywhere get below -23C then it will be record 63C plus range in a year.  
Snow still be full on Thursday due to -4 to -5C in the morning as I know.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

I think -23C is pretty much guaranteed, days on end of slack conditions under a cold airmass with snow cover in Scotland should make hitting that fairly easy. England will be less cold, mostly because I don't think there will be the snow cover there to get extreme temperatures by night.


 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

The media have named this cold weather the "Troll from Trondheim"

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

06 op and control are cold outliers after the weekend. 
Is that hairdryer getting unboxed in time for next week? 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

They are not outliers, just colder than the ensemble mean. There are other runs which are colder at that time point.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Where can the 06Z Ensembles (longer form ) be viewed at this time ? I normally wait for Meteoceil to update, which isn't yet - only short ones. 
 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=2&bw=1&geoid=49217  

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Still a split in ENS with a decent cluster still cold post 16th Dec. 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

I have only been in Trondhiem once. It rained heavily the entire time I was there. 😂

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Old fashioned east coast snow showers will do me just fine...however, the GFS snow rows have changed with each run: The pub run showed the whole country under a blanket. - a la Joe whats-his-names's prediction, someone posted a week ago, so we'll need to get nearer for snow: Best snow falls are often the unexpected ones: In 2010 we had one creep up from Essex into Suffolk, where I lived then, and wow - 4 inches of dusty piste special - delivered to my door. Totally unexpected. We'll see about snow - but the set up is also very unusual and it has taken something special to deliver the cold spell that has potential for snow. The Scandi high delivered rain showers and temperatures of 6- 8 degrees: I cannot believe that back in the 1980s that this set-up would not have already brought showers of snow.
Yes plenty of very interesting twists and turns and tales of the unexpected to come for a good long period: and so well timed for advent.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 

I was a bit luckier. Had a day off on my cruise job and it was July and 28C. Took a picture of me looking at my watch in the sun at 11 pm ! DID you go to that village called "Hell" near the airport? It was quite nice actually.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Not much change in the 6z update. Perhaps more spread towards the end.



ECM ENS also showing a big spread from 13/12 onwards. 



Still feel that on balance the probability is we'll see this cold spell break between 12/12 and 17/12. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze