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Saint Snow
05 December 2022 17:00:27

Rain to the south of London.

UserPostedImage[/



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 




Lovely run for the Midlands, S & W Yorks, Cheshire/Merseyside/Gtr Manc/Lancs, northern half of Wales - initially.

The front stalls over NW England, then pivots and slides away eastwards, allowing cooler air to remain (and snow showers to follow). A few cm's of snow for a wide band swathe of the country.

Sadly, that opens the door for milder air to return on the next Atlantic push.





 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Russwirral
05 December 2022 17:04:12
Best runs of the year for MBY.  

succession of snow events.

Icon, GFS, GEM

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Quantum
05 December 2022 17:04:56
UserPostedImage
GEM has a feature appearing in E parts on Saturday.

Incidentally people seem to swear by the GEM's ability to pick up patches of vorticity corresponding to showers or frontal precip so its something to think about.

EDIT: You can also use the ICON to see if there are any features, ICON has terrible model code for advecting moisture which means lake effect snow never gets inland, so any inland precip is from some kind of feature.

 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Tim A
05 December 2022 17:51:15
Many models not interested in Wed Night but NMM is. 
UserPostedImageUserPostedImage

A warm sector down the west there.  But ok in the East.  Just one option mind.  UKMO takes it way west down Wales. 

 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Brian Gaze
05 December 2022 17:55:16
Quite a big spread on MOGREPS 06z with a number of milder solutions.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
fairweather
05 December 2022 18:10:57

Rain to the south of London.

As ever ☹

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
05 December 2022 18:14:09
Noticed there is currently 3 cm of lying snow in central Belgium and central Germany. Just saying. 😉
S.Essex, 42m ASL
shepherd
05 December 2022 18:30:31
Wow, GFS has the Atlantic blast the easterly to kingdom come.
Rob K
05 December 2022 18:33:47
ECM looks like being the grinch this evening, I'll stick with GEM 😀
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
05 December 2022 18:40:17
Rain to the South of London? Surely not the M4 boundry again as I am on the wrong side of it.
Kingston Upon Thames
+1
doctormog
05 December 2022 18:42:18

ECM looks like being the grinch this evening, I'll stick with GEM 😀

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



It looks pretty cold so far?
 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Hippydave
05 December 2022 18:43:58
ECM T192 chart looks intriguing with a little daughter low/spit of energy divircing from the main parent low and seemingly heading east trhough France or the Channel.
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Ally Pally Snowman
05 December 2022 18:44:39

ECM looks like being the grinch this evening, I'll stick with GEM 😀

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Ecm looks great at 192h. Slider incoming 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
moomin75
05 December 2022 18:46:05

Ecm looks great at 192h. Slider incoming 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Yep, ECM lining up a classic blizzard. Wow.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
ballamar
05 December 2022 18:47:34

Ecm looks great at 192h. Slider incoming 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



absolutely
Ally Pally Snowman
05 December 2022 18:49:28
Snowfest at 216h lol. ECM is all over the place atm.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
05 December 2022 18:50:56

Snowfest at 216h lol. ECM is all over the place atm.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


High risk, high reward, but could easily end up like UKMO if the energy doesnt sufficiently undercut
Could go either way. Incredible to watch each run though
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
doctormog
05 December 2022 18:52:22
The only detail that remains the same between each run is that there is a cold spell coming up imminently. Some areas will have snow but all areas will be cold. For how long and any wintry specifics remain very much in the TBC category. Perhaps things will be milder from day 10 or so but that is a lifetime in the weather forecasting world.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Brian Gaze
05 December 2022 18:55:11

High risk, high reward, but could easily end up like UKMO if the energy doesnt sufficiently undercut
Could go either way. Incredible to watch each run though
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Difficult to say where the Met Office run would go next.

UserPostedImage
 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
05 December 2022 18:56:57

The only detail that remains the same between each run is that there is a cold spell coming up imminently. Some areas will have snow but all areas will be cold. For how long and any wintry specifics remain very much in the TBC category. Perhaps things will be milder from day 10 or so but that is a lifetime in the weather forecasting world.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



People spend ages chasing cold, when it comes they look for the end. Could be a long lasting cold spell but one thing is it will be very cold for December. 
+1
Whether Idle
05 December 2022 18:57:23
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=192&mode=1&nh=0 

JMA getting in on the action in FI for a while, certainly a run that keeps it cold.
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
scarborough whiteout
05 December 2022 18:59:40
Well the ECM is a great run. Cold continues.
Ally Pally Snowman
05 December 2022 19:00:00
Probably the best ECM of the winter so far. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
05 December 2022 19:05:32

People spend ages chasing cold, when it comes they look for the end. Could be a long lasting cold spell but one thing is it will be very cold for December. 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Not interested in FI stuff more interested with snow events in the early part from Thursday onward, won't be dry under LP so there some frontal bands or slow moving heavy snow showers.  
Gusty
05 December 2022 19:05:45
ECM is fantastic.

I love the way the cold air stagnates for a couple of days ahead of an attack from the SW 80's style.
The icing on the cake for me would be to get an early dusting, say Thurs/Friday out of it. That's maybe asking a bit too much though.
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



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