theweatheroutlook

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Russwirral
07 December 2022 00:41:52

its literally like we order our winters from Wish.... nothing like we wanted, and about 6 months too later than expected.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Zubzero
07 December 2022 01:01:43
Going by the 18z imby its 
4-5 days of 2-3C and -2 to 4 C at night, with the outside chance of a wintery shower then back to square one. So just a average at best cold snap-spell. 🥱 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=311&y=100&run=18&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1 

 
fairweather
07 December 2022 01:07:16
The hopecasters continue but based on tonight's ensembles the reality looks like a standard but welcome  very cold one week winter cold snap then remaining chilly. Looking at the overall pattern further cold snaps are possibly more likely than last few winters but that would be really be damned by faint praise. 
S.Essex, 42m ASL
croydon courier
07 December 2022 01:11:29
A cold snap implies 2-3 days....this wintry occasion is going to be about a week (at least for us Southerners, and probably longer for those further north), so would that be called an interlude? Or something else? An incursion perhaps?
ballamar
07 December 2022 04:12:04
Early days but GFS looks to be an improvement on the cold lasting

the high almost drops into Scandi by 216 
Ally Pally Snowman
07 December 2022 05:13:59
UKMO is a snowfest this morning. 🥶
Nice GEM out to day 10.
GFS ok but goes pear shaped day 8.
Clear as mud basically.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Zubzero
07 December 2022 05:19:01
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
07 December 2022 05:26:12

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmohd.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=10 
This mornings 👁 candy ❄️ 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 



Excellent for our part of the world.👍
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
07 December 2022 06:24:48
I expect many people in the south will want to bag this one.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
CreweCold
07 December 2022 06:41:44
UKMO, ICON, GEM, ECM and GEFS swinging towards sustained cold this morning. EC at D7 is a beauty, along with the UKMO.

Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
doctormog
07 December 2022 06:44:05
It looks like the picture for the middle of next week is not really much clearer this morning. Before then, cold.

The 00z ECM op run is as good for wintry weather fans as the previous op run was poor.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
07 December 2022 06:48:19
There's always one isn't there? UKMO and now ECM going cold so of course GFS throws out a stinker.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
moomin75
07 December 2022 06:51:57

There's always one isn't there? UKMO and now ECM going cold so of course GFS throws out a stinker.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

😂😂 I was thinking exactly that. Certainly keeps us on our toes. 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Whether Idle
07 December 2022 06:52:45
In these situtions you do need cross model agreement at 120 and sometimes 96 hours.  Cold in the short term, uncertain in the medium term. A fascinating period of model watching coming up and by the end of the weekend things will be clearer for next week,.
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
BJBlake
07 December 2022 07:00:02
The GFS Op, Control, and mean are all bringing the cold spell to a close in 7 days, via a damp squib - roll-over-and-die ending, via a mini high pressure that limply succeeds to the normal west to east flow, with a polar maritime end. This is at total odds to the other models. I am pinning my faith in the UKMO, but I fear the GFS is too often the storm-crow and latches on to pattern changes earlier than the others, but may be this time will be different. The next 7 days will be interesting, and I am sure the collective output is far from resolved.UserPostedImage
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Arbroath 1320
07 December 2022 07:04:54
GFS 0z ENS all over the place for next week. The model hasn't got a clue how to handle approaching LP from the SW.

Consistency across the other models this morning on maintaining the cold. 

​​​​​​Medium term outlook still likely to continue to flip flop run to run I expect. 
GGTTH
doctormog
07 December 2022 07:09:56
Here's a quick overview of the GEFS options at day 10: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSSPAGEU00_240_1.png 

😁
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Ally Pally Snowman
07 December 2022 07:10:13
ECM is ridiculous from hero to zero to hero again. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
07 December 2022 07:21:13
High risk comes high reward. Exciting models
this morning it it's snow your after. GFS a mess, but good to see ECM, GEM and METO delivering some excitement.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Gandalf The White
07 December 2022 07:22:14

Here's a quick overview of the GEFS options at day 10: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSSPAGEU00_240_1.png 

😁

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



LOL, for a moment I was transported to a primary school art display.

But it makes the point quite well.  Consistency notable for its absence.

Of course GFS could be resolving the pattern correctly but with ECM and UKMO showing similar evolutions I'm inclined to give it a lower likelihood of being right.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Rob K
07 December 2022 07:23:40
IBM model showing no breakdown, max 1C right out to next Friday here with snow symbols on Tuesday and Wednesday. (After a wobble yesterday when it switched to rain on Wednesday). 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Heavy Weather 2013
07 December 2022 07:30:10
Btw - Is Darren (Retron) OK. He would normally be all over this excitement - but barely seen him for weeks?
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
+1
CreweCold
07 December 2022 07:30:57
EC ensembles are pretty solidly cold with a majority cluster that the op and control sit in the middle of.

Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
moomin75
07 December 2022 07:32:51
The latest MOGREPS run shows far fewer mild runs than last night's 18z and yesterday's 12z.

Just a few stragglers go mild now.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

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