Model Output thread: 27th November 18:40· Page 40

Rob K
Advanced Member

06 December 2022 18:36:20

Yup, ECM is horrible with southerlies by Tuesday. Hope it's just going off on one.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

moomin75
Advanced Member

06 December 2022 18:36:46

#977

A very progressive ECM 12Z which rushes the mild air in with virtually no chance even of a transitory snowfall.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

Jiries
Advanced Member

06 December 2022 18:38:10

#978

But remain bone dry for most.
Honestly, such a waste of synoptics.
I can't understand why we are covered with low pressure and yet it remains completely dry.
Totally baffled by that.

Originally Posted by: moomin75

With large LP over us at other time of the year get flooded with rain all the time so why not happening this time? Excuses and stupidity of the UK climate want to avoid snow as possible when it cold enough. Lost interest now with this UK standard frosty spell which is nothing new as it the same in early Spring time.

Heavy Weather 2013
Advanced Member

06 December 2022 18:40:30

#979

That ECM looks far to progressive.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

fairweather
Advanced Member

06 December 2022 18:47:33

#980

You're obviously not a photographer (or anyone else who enjoys nature)

Gin clear skies, myriad star fields at night, deep frosts coating the trees - my favourite weather and I'd happily have that every day of the year and never see a snowflake again (especially since, here at least, 99 times out of 100 if we get a a covering of slushy snow, the skies remain dull and grey until it's all melted).

Also looks like a chance of some freezing fog to really coat the trees in rime 👍

Originally Posted by: Essan

👍 and of course a layer of snow gives us some decent reflected light. First blue crisp sunny day of the late autumn/winter here today and I was out with my camera.

S.Essex, 42m ASL

nsrobins
Advanced Member

06 December 2022 18:48:32

#981

That ECM looks far to progressive.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013

It is, but those options are in its suite.
This will run for a while yet.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

06 December 2022 18:48:46

#982

Wow the ECM really has been dogtuliprecently. All over the place.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

Arbroath 1320
Advanced Member

06 December 2022 18:49:59

#983

That ECM looks far to progressive.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013

Yes, the models are all over the place as regards next mid-week. ECM 12z OP offers another variation of the theme.

Far too early to sort this out. More chopping and changing to come.

GGTTH

fairweather
Advanced Member

06 December 2022 18:50:28

#984

there have been plenty of flips in the past, the ENS are just as fallible as a single chart. If there is a new pulse in the jet then all the runs have to react. The extension of any cold is going to be fallible beyond 12th Dec, but still a chance it can continue

Originally Posted by: ballamar

Well they're not, on the whole. That's the point of them.

S.Essex, 42m ASL

Rob K
Advanced Member

06 December 2022 18:56:13

#985

As is often the case UKMO seems to be the middle ground between GFS and ECM.

I wouldn't br surprised if it's closest with rain for the south and a decent snow event for the Midlands.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Brian Gaze
Administration Topic Starter

06 December 2022 18:57:28

#986

As I said a couple of days ago I expect the cold spell to break between 12/12 and 17/12. The ensembles (ECM and GEFS which are generally similar to each other) have been consistent in suggesting this. However, the cold conditions could hold on longer in the north and east of the UK.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Hippydave
Advanced Member

06 December 2022 18:59:27

#987

It is, but those options are in its suite.
This will run for a while yet.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins

Indeed. It'll be interesting to see what the ens suite says later. Not surprised one of the ops has reverted to this scenario, hopefully it's not well supported.

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge

Brian Gaze
Administration Topic Starter

06 December 2022 19:03:55

#988

MOGREPS-G 12z is just appearing.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/mogreps.aspx

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Taylor1740
Advanced Member

06 December 2022 19:08:53

#989

As I said a couple of days ago I expect the cold spell to break between 12/12 and 17/12. The ensembles (ECM and GEFS which are generally similar to each other) have been consistent in suggesting this. However, the cold conditions could hold on longer in the north and east of the UK.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

I would politely disagree with that I don't think there has been a strong signal for the cold spell to break during this time frame, if anything the cold continuing has been favoured. Appreciate that the recent runs have a quicker return to mild and as expected a few more ensembles supporting this, however I would say it's still in the balance.

NW Leeds - 150m amsl

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member

06 December 2022 19:11:36

#990

Well they're not, on the whole. That's the point of them.

Originally Posted by: fairweather

Well, you're both right in different ways. The ensemble suite is useful for gauging the stability of the evolution in the short- to medium-term, ie perhaps out to 4 or 5 days. It is beyond that the ensembles can't detect something unexpected that happens in the atmosphere: clearly things do change otherwise the forecast charts would be rock solid for a much longer period of time. We have all seen the ensemble suite flip unexpectedly; it's happened in the last couple of days, as Brian commented.

As Rumsfeld said, in a different context, there are known unknowns but there are also the unknown unknowns. It's the latter that brings the uncertainty.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member

06 December 2022 19:13:32

#991

I would politely disagree with that I don't think there has been a strong signal for the cold spell to break during this time frame, if anything the cold continuing has been favoured. Appreciate that the recent runs have a quicker return to mild and as expected a few more ensembles supporting this, however I would say it's still in the balance.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740

I think that maybe Brian might have suggested that the signals were emerging that the pattern could break, rather than would.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E

LeedsLad123
Advanced Member

06 December 2022 19:26:34

#992

Met Office now showing light snow & snow showers on Thursday evening here, reflecting some of the high-res output.

Edited by user 06 December 2022 19:27:45 | Reason: Not specified

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.

Russwirral
Advanced Member

06 December 2022 19:45:30

#993

ECM has a very 7th Feb 1996 look about it synoptically

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history

shepherd
Member

06 December 2022 19:47:39

#994

Neither ECM or GFS going for extended cold tonight, albeit with different scenarios.

+1

marting
Advanced Member

06 December 2022 19:56:53

#995

Well ECM was at the top end of its ensembles this evening, but some support, all about how far the low pushes North and then where it wanders off to if we are lucky. Hopefully not stay in situ. Interesting watch.
Martin

Martin
Greasby, Wirral.

Rob K
Advanced Member

06 December 2022 20:10:50

#996

IBM model clearly not going for a quick breakdown, latest iPhone update has a max of 0 next Thursday here, with snow on Tue and Wed.

@Brian Gaze that 12Z MOGREPS update has just about everything. Huge scatter st the end with some diving to -10 at 850.

Edited by user 06 December 2022 20:13:02 | Reason: Not specified

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Hippydave
Advanced Member

06 December 2022 20:52:07

#997

Well ECM was at the top end of its ensembles this evening, but some support, all about how far the low pushes North and then where it wanders off to if we are lucky. Hopefully not stay in situ. Interesting watch.
Martin

Originally Posted by: marting

At 850 level the Op is well supported IMBY and in the majority. Less clear at T2M, suggesting at least some of the members bringing milder 850s in are dragging cold air in ahead of them and it stays coldish at the surface.

Plenty of scatter thereafter in terms of whether the colder 850s returns or not, presumably reflecting whether the LP heads East, fills over the UK or heads further North. Given your comments I assume it's less likely the LP spins up milder air over the whole of the UK.

Be interesting seeing what tomorrows runs bring as we're starting to creep towards the point where the models should be getting a better handle on that LP development and track although it's the kind of setup where changes seem to happen right up to 3-4 days out. (Stereotypically the LP ends up much further south than shown, something I could live with although means no big snow event for those better positioned).

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge