theweatheroutlook

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Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
07 December 2022 19:16:40

I can't remember the year, but there was a period where no snow was in the forecast. And then with 48hrs the models picked up on a low spinning up. Central southern England got buried. 

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 



I remember these channel lows changing direction last minute and the French get a damping. I suspect this will miss us again and clear to the south of theUK with perhaps jersey getting some decent snow.
Kingston Upon Thames
Saint Snow
07 December 2022 19:18:53

Lightyears away in forecasting terms, so not worth consideration other than for the sheer fact it's there at the moment. If it's still there in FAX chart range then it gets interesting. I bet it won't be though, or not as shown, given the sheer length of time until then

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Same applies the opposite way, too. Just because a snowy feature isn't showing at +168 doesn't mean there won't be one. 

😋

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Quantum
07 December 2022 19:29:42
GEM still picking up some snow for E areas on Saturday.
UserPostedImage
Alot of people really swear by this model and how it so accurately predicts patches of vorticity asociated with features or enhanced shower activity.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Brian Gaze
07 December 2022 19:34:48
Arpege showing snow on Friday in parts of southern and central England. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
07 December 2022 20:07:53
So, tonight is the first chance to put the hi-res U.K. Met Office model to the test. Will it reach -15°C in parts of Scotland tonight? 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ukguk/12_16_2m_min_temp.png  
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Downpour
07 December 2022 20:17:53

You keep repeating the same line. As you know features will not be picked up at this range.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 



Kieron is just saying what he sees.

Dry / bone dry for the foreseeable. 

 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Downpour
07 December 2022 20:20:01

Lightyears away in forecasting terms, so not worth consideration other than for the sheer fact it's there at the moment. If it's still there in FAX chart range then it gets interesting. I bet it won't be though, or not as shown, given the sheer length of time until then

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



I like this forum for its realism. 

Absolutely right.

 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Tim A
07 December 2022 20:23:31
We have a mix of light rain and sleet forecast tomorrow evening by Met Office app  Precipitation cropping up at short notice but look at those dew points.
UserPostedImage
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Heavy Weather 2013
07 December 2022 20:27:34

Kieron is just saying what he sees.

Dry / bone dry for the foreseeable. 

 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



And the Aperge showing a feature tomorrowZ we just discount? That's not bone dry for the foreseable.

Arome showing precipitation pontential
as well.
 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Joe Bloggs
07 December 2022 20:29:29

And the Aperge showing a feature tomorrowZ we just discount? That's not bone dry for the foreseeable

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 



I really wouldn’t waste your breath to be honest. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Viking3
07 December 2022 20:31:36

So, tonight is the first chance to put the hi-res U.K. Met Office model to the test. Will it reach -15°C in parts of Scotland tonight? 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ukguk/12_16_2m_min_temp.png  

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



That model seems very prone to have very low temperatures! The same chart on the UKV model for 0400 tomorrow morning has typically -2 to -5 in the area where that chart shows -15. It has a long way to go!
Keith
Aboyne, Aberdeenshire
135m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
07 December 2022 20:34:49
ECM London ensembles now pretty much rock solid -6c for 10 days in a row.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
07 December 2022 20:35:56

So, tonight is the first chance to put the hi-res U.K. Met Office model to the test. Will it reach -15°C in parts of Scotland tonight? 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ukguk/12_16_2m_min_temp.png  

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Ares those areas in glens which are known frost pockets?
My bones are chilled just thinking about those temperatures.
Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Tim A
07 December 2022 20:41:11
Test - is the model thread broken?
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Joe Bloggs
07 December 2022 20:47:02
Test - I can only read the latest posts by pressing reply.

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
UncleAlbert
07 December 2022 20:54:33

I remember these channel lows changing direction last minute and the French get a damping. I suspect this will miss us again and clear to the south of theUK with perhaps jersey getting some decent snow.

Originally Posted by: Sasa 


Happened a few times in the famous February 86!
LeedsLad123
07 December 2022 20:54:40

We have a mix of light rain and sleet forecast tomorrow evening by Met Office app  Precipitation cropping up at short notice but look at those dew points.
UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Tim A 


Absolutely ridiculous that we could end up getting rain tomorrow evening.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
07 December 2022 20:59:02
Stunning output this evening. First time we have had the full set
UKMO seems out on its own with the low, now seems it will get nowhere near us, and we look east for streamers

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Jim-55
07 December 2022 21:16:48
I can remember that one quite well Saint, I was chopping up a tree for firewood at the time, here in from there was a fair bit more than 20cm though more like 45cm and maybe more towards the Mendips. Living here from 1970 most of our best snow events happened with this kind set up.
Previously JimC. joined back then in 2009. Frome, N/E Somerset, 125mtrs asl.
moomin75
07 December 2022 21:18:18
Anyone else having issues with this forum? ​​​​​​​The last post I can see is a broken one from Heavy Weather.  
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Brian Gaze
07 December 2022 21:26:43
Should be ok now.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Saint Snow
07 December 2022 21:27:55

Anyone else having issues with this forum? The last post I can see is a broken one from Heavy Weather.  

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



​​​​​​​I had that. Tried refreshing and going back to the main menu, but neither worked. Ended up going yo a different site then back to this one, which removed the gremlin. 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Joe Bloggs
07 December 2022 21:30:50

ECM London ensembles now pretty much rock solid -6c for 10 days in a row.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



A pretty incredible outlook really given the weather we’ve had this year to date. 

An impressive run of cold.

UserPostedImage

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Saint Snow
07 December 2022 21:31:23

I can remember that one quite well Saint, I was chopping up a tree for firewood at the time, here in from there was a fair bit more than 20cm though more like 45cm and maybe more towards the Mendips. Living here from 1970 most of our best snow events happened with this kind set up.

Originally Posted by: Jim-55 



Sounds great! I was only 10 y/o at the time so have had to check Wetter's Karten Archive for the synoptics. 

A rare feast, though, as most of the time the front drags in mild air then blasts through with rain (NYE 2000/01 still stings, man!) 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Brian Gaze
07 December 2022 21:56:33
GFS 18z shows 17cm of snow to the south of London by Sunday.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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