theweatheroutlook

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Hippydave
07 December 2022 22:00:46
Talking of little features cropping up GFS has a little area of precip run in to Hampshire/IOW and along the coast earlyish Sunday morning. Suspect it will disappear on the next run but shows the potential is there for enhanced areas of precip.

Before then there's (as per the MetO forecasts) a little feature that runs down the North Sea coastline from Southern Scotland, fizzling before it gets to Norfolk.

Bigger picture and if I had to guess I'd say the 18z Op is going to stall the LP in the Atlantic and decay it.

Edit: Brian beat me to it on the Sunday thing!
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
ballamar
07 December 2022 22:22:27
Now there’s a shock some features cropping up in this set up which is why any bone dry comments need to be put into context
Joe Bloggs
07 December 2022 22:48:11
18z is a shocker, I’d imagine top of the ens. Fine until the extended range.

An observation - it is currently -4C here, notably colder than any of the forecasts for this time frame. Similar last night. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Brian Gaze
07 December 2022 22:52:30
I doubt many people would see this chart and think "an all time classic snow event". 😂😂

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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+3
Brian Gaze
07 December 2022 22:53:58
Here is the corresponding precipitation type forecast chart. 

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
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Karl Guille
07 December 2022 23:23:36
More runs extending the cold IMBY on the short ensembles, albeit little likelihood of any snow this far south!
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/runs/2022120718/graphe3_00000_220_247___.gif 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Arbroath 1320
07 December 2022 23:30:12
GFS 12z & 18z runs beginning to come on board in prolonging the cold.

Met long range forecast today has clear signals for the cold to last, at least in the North, until January. One of the most bullish, cold outlooks I've seen from the Met over the years. 

Most cold lovers of course are craving snow, but this is shaping up to be a very prolonged period of Winter cold temperatures across the UK regardless. 
GGTTH
fairweather
07 December 2022 23:50:27
BBC tonight forecasting widespread freezing fog for the weekend. 🙄
S.Essex, 42m ASL
CreweCold
08 December 2022 00:08:35

BBC tonight forecasting widespread freezing fog for the weekend. 🙄

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Freezing fog is great at this time of year, When it lifts you're left with a landscape painted white.

Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
+1
Jiries
08 December 2022 01:40:30

Freezing fog is great at this time of year, When it lifts you're left with a landscape painted white.

Originally Posted by: CreweCold 



Only once I seen it in Dec 1991 but rest sent temps flying high as over 10C rise once fog descend and wreck havac on my low temps data.  If they are forecasting freezing then temps should carry  on dropping.   I rather have snow than fog.  Weird models lately for showing LP over us but no snow.
Rob K
08 December 2022 01:49:14

That model seems very prone to have very low temperatures! The same chart on the UKV model for 0400 tomorrow morning has typically -2 to -5 in the area where that chart shows -15. It has a long way to go!

Originally Posted by: Viking3 


Well at 1am it was already -6C in southern England (eg Benson) 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
doctormog
08 December 2022 05:08:21

Well at 1am it was already -6C in southern England (eg Benson) 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



So, not only did it show overnight mínima in the NW Highlands far too low for the localised coldest spots, it also showed them far too high for the coldest places in England. Although to be fair many of the models had the latter issue.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
nsrobins
08 December 2022 06:40:16
High risk, high gain is the buzz phrase again, with EC especially playing with a snowstorm but a small change and its rain into the south. All good fun.
PS: GFS again out of kilter with its suite. The mean is much colder longer term than the OP.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Ally Pally Snowman
08 December 2022 06:44:29
ECM pushes the low pressure quite far north which is a good thing if you want snow. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
08 December 2022 06:48:02

ECM pushes the low pressure quite far north which is a good thing if you want snow.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

A long way off, and largely all charts point to continued bone dry weather ahead. 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
08 December 2022 06:56:15

A long way off, and largely all charts point to continued bone dry weather ahead. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



ECM this morning is what we want though certainly for the southern third of the UK.  
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
08 December 2022 06:58:10

A long way off, and largely all charts point to continued bone dry weather ahead. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



yawn change the record - you have your phrase you want to impose and I will say now it’s wrong
+1
moomin75
08 December 2022 06:59:27

yawn change the record - you have your phrase you want to impose and I will say now it’s wrong

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Time will tell.​​​​​​​A virtual pint says I will be right. 😂  
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
moomin75
08 December 2022 07:03:42
However *if* the ECM 0Z verified, I will be buried in snow late next week with around 25cm showing on the precipitation charts.
 ​​​​​​​Marcus, best get your snow shoes ready.​​​​​​​I will take a punt and say it's not going to happen though.   
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
ballamar
08 December 2022 07:09:02

Time will tell.A virtual pint says I will be right. 😂  

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



​​​​​​​just remember your summer prediction- pretty sure you said you would be right then we all know what happened
moomin75
08 December 2022 07:11:13

just remember your summer prediction- pretty sure you said you would be right then we all know what happened

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Yep, I was wrong (initially), but as the models came to a full agreement, I was happy to admit I was wrong and 40c was recorded.​​​​​​​We shall see, but as pretty much every model is staying dry, I think that's virtually entire Cross model support for a long dry spell (ECM 0Z aside).  
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
08 December 2022 07:19:09

However *if* the ECM 0Z verified, I will be buried in snow late next week with around 25cm showing on the precipitation charts.
 Marcus, best get your snow shoes ready.I will take a punt and say it's not going to happen though.   

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Only 22cm for me lol. ECM is pretty much perfect for me. All of England covered in snow by the end.
​​​​​​​


 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
08 December 2022 07:22:39
Fantastic charts again this morning. Cold weather to get us through the next few days - ground will get harder and residual heat will dissapear. 

Next week is starting to look high risk / high reward - this is what we need. We have to accept that risk to get the sort of heavy snow a lot of us want. The cross over day was the 14th - that’s now becoming the 18th. 

Right now, I’d like everything to hold until the 24th and then a breakdown from the SW Christmas Eve evening with a titled low and very heavy snow.

tbh if that happened the weather can do what it wanted for the rest of the season and I would care one iota.

Also, if the angle of attack is right, we should panic too much about 850s. I’ve seen heavy snow when 850s are around 0c
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
marco 79
08 December 2022 07:22:55
Clear cold sunny days, frost lingering, hard frost at nights.. old-school winters days...I for one will enjoy even if a flake doesn't fall
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
+3
moomin75
08 December 2022 07:25:11

Clear cold sunny days, frost lingering, hard frost at nights.. old-school winters days...I for one will enjoy even if a flake doesn't fall

Originally Posted by: marco 79 


Crystal clear blue skies are far more preferable than dank, overcast, drizzly skies, I must agree.

Was a sparkling day yesterday.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

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