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ballamar
18 December 2022 16:10:36

They cannot persist all the time in winter season, there need to be winter rain in Spain and other western Med countries.  This should be only occuring in summer months that last longer for HP to sit longer.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



if only it were that simple, northern areas look likely for winter to continue on GFS. Low pressure keeping an east north east feed
Rob K
18 December 2022 16:11:29
Cold air that bit further south on the 12z GFS. Snow into northern England on Xmas Eve. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Jiries
18 December 2022 16:20:01

Cold air that bit further south on the 12z GFS. Snow into northern England on Xmas Eve. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Good trend to slowly push further south so hope for areas not seeing snow this year 2022 like here to see at some point over Xmas.   
squish
18 December 2022 16:20:16
and pushing back in from  the SW xmas day!
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Brian Gaze
18 December 2022 16:22:10
GFS and ICON 12z updates both suggest a technical white Christmas is still possible anywhere in the UK.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Karl Guille
18 December 2022 16:31:52
A nice evolution from the 12z GFS with an easterly of sorts on 27 December.
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022121812/gfs-0-210.png?12 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
ballamar
18 December 2022 16:39:04
Quite a different GFS op run, perhaps beginning of a new trend. 
Gandalf The White
18 December 2022 17:00:02

The impression I got from watching the bbc forecasters many (many) years ago was that cold air would (I don't know a better ways for me to put this.) beat, displace, undercut warm air. I've probably got this all wrong but that has stuck in my memory for many years. and yet warm air is displacing cold air at this moment. I'more confused than ever. (Which doesn't take a lot.)

Originally Posted by: Osprey 



No, you’ve recalled correctly.  Cold air is denser than warm air: cold air sinks, warm air rises.  So in the boundary between air masses, with a warm front the warm air will tend to ride up over the cold air.  With a cold front the cold air undercuts the warm air.  An occlusion occurs because you have both processes at work, so eventually the area of warm air is lifted clear of the surface.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Joe Bloggs
18 December 2022 17:04:52
The Christmas Day cold boundary is a smidgeon further south on the 12z GEFS (mean) compared to last night.

UserPostedImage 

 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Brian Gaze
18 December 2022 17:11:59
UK Met going the opposite way this evening.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
18 December 2022 17:17:11
GFS control brings snow risk to the south on Christmas Eve. UKMO needs a glass of mulled wine or two. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Jacee
18 December 2022 17:22:03
It looks like there is still just as much uncertainty around the Christmas period and beyond, but the GFS does bring some Christmas cheer with a better push south of colder air and then attempts at an easterly well into FI. I understand the early analysis of the GEFS supports the former at least ❄

Given recent verification stats though, we still need to apply a lot of caution given the GEM and UKMO are less keen on the idea. I suppose it shows how we could still swing either way. When was the last time forecasters had an easy time of it over the Christmas period? 😄

ECM predictions? I sense another Scrooge operational, but only because the last few have gone that way despite encouraging ensembles.
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
fairweather
18 December 2022 17:26:41
Yes, the latter part of '63 was very much like that. It became grey and frequent snizzle in a damp atmosphere. If you relook a the uppers they weren't that low by then but the cold lower layer hung on and on.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
moomin75
18 December 2022 17:28:04

UK Met going the opposite way this evening.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I would think that the UKMO is closest to getting this right.
Why?
Because all forecasts I've seen upto Christmas have said mild. You only need to look at the BBC weather website to see how mild it is going to be.
I think, therefore, GFS and ICON have gone off on one.  I fully expect ECM to follow UKMO today.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
18 December 2022 17:32:10
Another encouraging GEFS ensemble set so far in terms of cold (the mean t850 now dips to -9.4°C here). The UKMO op run can’t be discounted of course.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Jacee
18 December 2022 17:33:31

You only need to look at the BBC weather website to see how mild it is going to be.
I think, therefore, GFS and ICON have gone off on one.  I fully expect ECM to follow UKMO today.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Do the BBC not use the ECM operational model to generate their forecasts? It would explain why their own forecasts have often been mild for the period in question, despite more encouraging ensembles.

Despite its obvious flaws, I have been relatively impressed with the GEFS in recent days which have gradually increased the cooling trend for the 25-27th period. Whether it verifies remains to be seen for the reasons described earlier 😊
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
+1
David M Porter
18 December 2022 17:35:29

I would think that the UKMO is closest to getting this right.
Why?
Because all forecasts I've seen upto Christmas have said mild. You only need to look at the BBC weather website to see how mild it is going to be.
I think, therefore, GFS and ICON have gone off on one.  I fully expect ECM to follow UKMO today.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



I think it depends on whereabouts in the country one is talking about. BBC shows the temperatures for Glasgow starting with a high of 13c tomorrow and then gradually coming down through the rest of the week and finishing it between 3c and 5c. I know that it is forecast to be somewhat milder further south throughout, though.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
doctormog
18 December 2022 17:45:34
If the GEM 12z op run were to verify it would be a very snowy Christmas period across many parts of Scotland. It will be interesting to see where it fits in the ensemble data.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
18 December 2022 17:50:29

If the GEM 12z op run were to verify it would be a very snowy Christmas period across many parts of Scotland. It will be interesting to see where it fits in the ensemble data.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I would say it’s already heavy odds on for a very snowy Christmas across Scotland. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
moomin75
18 December 2022 18:01:05

I would say it’s already heavy odds on for a very snowy Christmas across Scotland.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Yes, it's hardly ever been in doubt that Scotland will cop a lot of wintry weather.Well, it's Scotland, so not really a surprise.For the great majority of the UK though, another fail.46 years and counting and I've never seen a white Christmas. And by that, I mean one with snow falling on the day.​​​​​​​  
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
ballamar
18 December 2022 18:03:54

Yes, it's hardly ever been in doubt that Scotland will cop a lot of wintry weather.Well, it's Scotland, so not really a surprise.For the great majority of the UK though, another fail.46 years and counting and I've never seen a white Christmas. And by that, I mean one with snow falling on the day.  

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



​​​​​​​it’s not failed yet! Unlikely but you cannot call it 
doctormog
18 December 2022 18:06:21

it’s not failed yet! Unlikely but you cannot call it 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



This is what the snow risk probability data from the GFS 12z suite say for Christmas Day:

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/run/gensprobuk-26-180.png?12

UserPostedImage 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Weathermac
18 December 2022 18:07:10

Yes, it's hardly ever been in doubt that Scotland will cop a lot of wintry weather.Well, it's Scotland, so not really a surprise.For the great majority of the UK though, another fail.46 years and counting and I've never seen a white Christmas. And by that, I mean one with snow falling on the day.  

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



How many Black cats have you run over with all your bad luck 🤣🤣

Personally I think we will see cold air pushing south over the Xmas period 👍
+1
The Beast from the East
18 December 2022 18:08:25

Another encouraging GEFS ensemble set so far in terms of cold (the mean t850 now dips to -9.4°C here). The UKMO op run can’t be discounted of course.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



The models have never been keen on a southern delight, unable to get enough energy south. Im giving this up now, its too much stress, just hope we can avoid a soaking
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Brian Gaze
18 December 2022 18:33:33

Yes, it's hardly ever been in doubt that Scotland will cop a lot of wintry weather.Well, it's Scotland, so not really a surprise.For the great majority of the UK though, another fail.46 years and counting and I've never seen a white Christmas. And by that, I mean one with snow falling on the day.  

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



As a cricketer you do seem surprisingly definitive in your medium range predictions. I thought you'd be familiar with the corridor of uncertainty. 😂
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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