This is what the snow risk probability data from the GFS 12z suite say for Christmas Day:

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/run/gensprobuk-26-180.png?12

 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

exactly this - to call it now is wrong. I would be happier the further north I was of the chances !

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

What a horrible ECM det run. 

The 12z EPS will be interesting. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

I think the word you are looking for is “erroneous” Joe.  🤡

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Based on what looks to be a highly erroneous GFS.The other main models are not remotely interested in what GFS is showing, and the forecasts back this up.​​​​​​​There is no dressing it up, what lies ahead looks pretty dire for most (away from jolly old Scotland).   

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

What a horrible ECM det run. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Or faulty! 😂😂😂

It does seem a tad out of kilter. 

Or it could be spot on and the GEFS could be going off on one. We’ll have a better idea this time tomorrow. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Based on what looks to be a highly erroneous GFS.The other main models are not remotely interested in what GFS is showing, and the forecasts back this up.​​​​​​​There is no dressing it up, what lies ahead looks pretty dire for most (away from jolly old Scotland).   

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

I would think that the UKMO is closest to getting this right.
Why?
Because all forecasts I've seen upto Christmas have said mild. You only need to look at the BBC weather website to see how mild it is going to be.
I think, therefore, GFS and ICON have gone off on one.  I fully expect ECM to follow UKMO today.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Based on what looks to be a highly erroneous GFS.The other main models are not remotely interested in what GFS is showing, and the forecasts back this up.There is no dressing it up, what lies ahead looks pretty dire for most (away from jolly old Scotland).   

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

I think the 12z EPS are slightly less cold than this morning. But yet again we have a det run that is completely out of kilter with the ensemble runs, most notably on Christmas Day itself. This has happened a lot very recently. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

the high res op is picking this spoilier low and the ens are not at this stage. GEM has now gone pete tong as well
Only GFS left and that will also go later this evening.
Its time to give up on this one, could well end up a winter of one cold spell and then back to normal very wet and mild pattern. but at least we got to see lying snow in southern england again, which I was concerned may never happen again due to warming
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Based on what looks to be a highly erroneous GFS.The other main models are not remotely interested in what GFS is showing, and the forecasts back this up.​​​​​​​There is no dressing it up, what lies ahead looks pretty dire for most (away from jolly old Scotland).   

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

that's a shame as I looked at the GEFS 12z and it looked like there was very solid support now for a decent cold snap, but if none of the other models are backing this up you would have to say the chance of cold again is next to nil now.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

No, I’m pretty sure that one day it will be cold again 😀

Originally Posted by: Lothian Snowman 

12z MOGREPS

No clarity here I’m afraid. Some chilly runs nonetheless. 

the snow depth postage stamps for midnight Boxing Day aren’t very exciting for most parts @Brian Gaze - any idea how accurate these are? 



max temp postage stamps also for reference 



 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs