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warrenb
20 December 2022 17:13:02
GFS is now a mild outlier in the ENS at the moment.
Tonbridge 45m 
moomin75
20 December 2022 17:14:28

GFS is now a mild outlier in the ENS at the moment.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


I very much doubt it will be an outlier. 
This is what has been on the Euros for days.
GFS was barking up the wrong tree, as usual.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
20 December 2022 17:17:12

Another GFS op run showing significant snowfall for fairly large parts of Scotland - might be a bit of a sleet/rain fest at times for lower ground but even here there looks a decent chance of at least some snow depending on LP track etc. 

Not IMBY but a cracking setup for some, with snow falling over a 2-3 day period and generally from organised fronts. I'd imagine there could be some really impressive totals over the Highlands etc.

I won't comment too much on the weather IMBY as it just looks damp and rather tedious🤣 (Upto T123 at least anyway!).

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 



Seemingly the mountaintops in Scotland have have now expanded to cover much of the mainland away from the coasts. Those 3-4000ft hills are quite Ab sight to behold just outside Aberdeen and in Inverness. 😇

In all seriousness it is unusual to see so much uncertainty at such a relatively short timescale. I’m not sure we will be able to “call Christmas” for at least another couple of days based on the range of options. 

For a cherry picked laugh the GFS 12z op run shows 20cm of snow here from midday to 3pm on the 27th of December . Almost certain to be gone 8n 6hrs but quite amusing.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
doctormog
20 December 2022 17:18:19

GFS is now a mild outlier in the ENS at the moment.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 



Yes it is warmer than all the other ensemble members at midday on the 26th (on the London ensemble set).

Edit: Albeit briefly at that warmest part of the run. It is milder than the mean after that though (or at least so far).
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
ballamar
20 December 2022 17:22:21

I very much doubt it will be an outlier. 
This is what has been on the Euros for days.
GFS was barking up the wrong tree, as usual.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



look at the GEFS it is an outlier you can’t doubt it! You can believe it’s correct and eventually the others will follow. But it is an outlier!
warrenb
20 December 2022 17:28:07

Yes it is warmer than all the other ensemble members at midday on the 26th (on the London ensemble set).

Edit: Albeit briefly at that warmest part of the run. It is milder than the mean after that though (or at least so far).

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


To be honest it would be much better if they plotted the median. Beautifully demonstrated by the mean being that high due to some outrageously mild runs (which are in the vast minority)
Tonbridge 45m 
+2
Ally Pally Snowman
20 December 2022 17:49:27

look at the GEFS it is an outlier you can’t doubt it! You can believe it’s correct and eventually the others will follow. But it is an outlier!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



GEFS definitely nudging colder this evening.  The festive period could still be festive .
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Taylor1740
20 December 2022 17:54:31
Definitely now looks like the models are converging on an average or slightly above average spell of temperatures and unsettled. Therefore it may now be time for me to switch off from the models for the festive break and come back in January to see if it can finally deliver.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Jacee
20 December 2022 18:01:50
I remain surprised to see some ready to call the festive weekend and beyond given the fine margins at play. We're due another day or so in my opinion before having any sort of confidence in the weekend and post-Christmas weather. Never say definite when looking ahead past 96hrs.
You can be more confident further north I suppose in your snow chances, but in terms of confidence that's about it!

Given the state of the Northern Hemispheric pattern currently, I'd liken it to having a chosen card in a deck face down and trying to pick it out once it has been placed back. Only that deck keeps on getting shuffled. How confident would you be in picking your card?

I think this has another few days to play out yet.
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
+1
Brian Gaze
20 December 2022 18:04:36

Definitely now looks like the models are converging on an average or slightly above average spell of temperatures and unsettled. Therefore it may now be time for me to switch off from the models for the festive break and come back in January to see if it can finally deliver.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



Everyone can of course set their own expectations. However, it would be difficult to argue that the Troll from Trondheim didn't deliver in the south east. In fact it will be recorded as one of the most significant cold spells of recent years.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Ally Pally Snowman
20 December 2022 18:18:02

Definitely now looks like the models are converging on an average or slightly above average spell of temperatures and unsettled. Therefore it may now be time for me to switch off from the models for the festive break and come back in January to see if it can finally deliver.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



Some weird comments in here tonight.  Have a look at the Leeds GEFS. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49217&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
20 December 2022 18:22:31

Some weird comments in here tonight. Have a look at the Leeds GEFS.  https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49217&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

That just shows it wasnt a mild outlier Ally.Close (but admittedly not quite) to a Zonal sine wave pattern with ups and downs.I don't think that  particular GEFS will reassure anyone.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Gandalf The White
20 December 2022 18:24:45

Definitely now looks like the models are converging on an average or slightly above average spell of temperatures and unsettled. Therefore it may now be time for me to switch off from the models for the festive break and come back in January to see if it can finally deliver.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



A somewhat odd comment given the 12z UKMO run and the Met Office update.

For the Home Counties these are the approx maxima and minima over the Xmas period, using the UKMO run:

Xmas Eve:  Max 11, Min 8
Xmas Day:  Max 9, Min 8
Boxing Day: Max 6, Min 4
Tues 27:  Max 5, Min 1

Quite a clear trend, which is in line with the range of outcomes we have been discussing for several days.
 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Ally Pally Snowman
20 December 2022 18:25:07

That just shows it wasnt a mild outlier Ally.Close (but admittedly not quite) to a Zonal sine wave pattern with ups and downs.I don't think that  particular GEFS will reassure anyone.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



It shows a below average mean with many ensembles way below average.  
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
20 December 2022 18:26:04

Some weird comments in here tonight.  Have a look at the Leeds GEFS. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49217&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Yes, it seems very strange that is described as “average or slightly above average”. Perhaps their browser was cached?

The below average mean is even more apparent further north. Further south things look close to average.

There is still a massive amount of uncertainty for this Sunday and the ECM 12z just adds another option to the mix.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Brian Gaze
20 December 2022 18:36:16
ECM 12z going for a rather cold and seasonal Christmas period in most of the UK courtesy of a toppler.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
nsrobins
20 December 2022 18:53:53
The phrase ‘toppler’ starting to appear is all I need to know.
There isn’t a quick return to cold for most in the next week although there is still a chance the upstream hasn’t been resolved properly. 
Those with experience must see that once the GEFS start wandering back to near mean or show that sinusoidal look we’ve all got to know and dread, the chance of anything significantly wintry is low.
Could change, and (another one of those phrases) still plenty of winter left, etc.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1
moomin75
20 December 2022 19:05:04

The phrase ‘toppler’ starting to appear is all I need to know.There isn’t a quick return to cold for most in the next week although there is still a chance the upstream hasn’t been resolved properly. Those with experience must see that once the GEFS start wandering back to near mean or show that sinusoidal look we’ve all got to know and dread, the chance of anything significantly wintry is low.Could change, and (another one of those phrases) still plenty of winter left, etc.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

 Amen to this. Good to see that there are some people on this forum that can still see the wood for the trees.​​​​​​​Maybe something next month, although I would be dubious about that, but I'm glad it's not just me going completely doo-lally over the charts I've been seeing.  
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Jacee
20 December 2022 19:09:03
UserPostedImage

The ensembles for my closest city. I note a couple of things after the 23rd. Firstly the clear trend of colder air to gradually head southwards providing a seasonal, sunny and frosty Boxing Day - 28th as it hopefully times with higher pressure from the south (ECM, GEM, UKMO). The second is the operational and control of the GFS 12z lending us a sine wave pattern indicating something more zonal (perhaps cold zonal, however?). There continues to be a large amount of scatter in the suite post Day 6, so confidence remains low.
 
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
doctormog
20 December 2022 19:10:07
The messy and chilly picture in the north shows how finely balanced things are (see 12z GEFS ensemble below). Hopefully a few more days will give a bit more clarity. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.25

UserPostedImage 

I wonder if the ECM ensembles will again show the below average theme that was evident 8n the 00z suite (in the short term up here and medium term in the south)? 

I guess it’s the time of year for all things Messy/i 

(P.S. Apologies for posting the link to a chart rather than just claiming something is going to be the case for days or weeks because I feel like it).
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+3
Taylor1740
20 December 2022 19:19:34

Everyone can of course set their own expectations. However, it would be difficult to argue that the Troll from Trondheim didn't deliver in the south east. In fact it will be recorded as one of the most significant cold spells of recent years.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I agree, the temperatures and frosts in the recent cold spell were very significant despite the fact we had basically no snow here. I was referring to January - the fact we have not had a properly cold January since 2010.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Downpour
20 December 2022 19:44:36
Looks mild and fairly wet for the vast majority of the UK population in the reliable. That’s really the long and short of it. 

Thereafter, something to play for. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
fullybhoy
20 December 2022 20:00:40

Definitely now looks like the models are converging on an average or slightly above average spell of temperatures and unsettled. Therefore it may now be time for me to switch off from the models for the festive break and come back in January to see if it can finally deliver.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



Can you take your narcissistic friend with you…………
Aldo
Glasgow 165m/asl
 
+9
Saint Snow
20 December 2022 20:32:08

Can you take your narcissistic friend with you…………

Originally Posted by: fullybhoy 



😆 👍

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
HFC1875
20 December 2022 20:40:08

Can you take your narcissistic friend with you…………

Originally Posted by: fullybhoy 



👏👏👏
+4

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