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Gandalf The White
20 December 2022 21:11:45

Looks mild and fairly wet for the vast majority of the UK population in the reliable. That’s really the long and short of it. 

Thereafter, something to play for. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



Clearly you are wasted on an Internet forum, since you can see clarity where the professionals can't.
 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Karl Guille
20 December 2022 21:20:39
ICON 18z has the cold a little further south on the 18z for Christmas Day but no immediate sign of a nationwide cold spell!
 https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/archives/2022122018/icon-1-120.png?18 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
ballamar
20 December 2022 21:25:56
Time for a good old fashioned pub run 
+2
Lionel Hutz
20 December 2022 21:28:53

UserPostedImage

The ensembles for my closest city. I note a couple of things after the 23rd. Firstly the clear trend of colder air to gradually head southwards providing a seasonal, sunny and frosty Boxing Day - 28th as it hopefully times with higher pressure from the south (ECM, GEM, UKMO). The second is the operational and control of the GFS 12z lending us a sine wave pattern indicating something more zonal (perhaps cold zonal, however?). There continues to be a large amount of scatter in the suite post Day 6, so confidence remains low.
 

Originally Posted by: Jacee 



A fair summary, I would say. One clear issue for the past few days has been the question as to how far South the cold air will get during the cooler/colder spell post Christmas. That's still not entirely clear. Thereafter, there seems to be little of note but that's a good distance away yet.
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Brian Gaze
20 December 2022 21:37:48
Still  a colder dip on the ECM ENS. However, I'll be very interested to see the Met update tomorrow because today's gave me the impression of swimming against the tide to an extent.

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Brian Gaze
20 December 2022 21:40:45
MOGREPS is firming up on Xmas day. However, it's worth remembering the Met recommend considering the suite as 2x36 rather than 4x18. Therefore, I suspect a call on Xmas day may be possible after tomorrow's 06z runs IF they are consistent with the 00z ones.

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Downpour
20 December 2022 22:07:39

Clearly you are wasted on an Internet forum, since you can see clarity where the professionals can't.
 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



You and Mog seem to react to anything anyone posts unless they are forecasting cold.

I am simply summarising the totality of the modelling as I see it: mild for most in the reliable.

That’s it. Hardly controversial (nor outwith the professionals’ predictions for that matter). 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Karl Guille
20 December 2022 22:09:57
GFS 18z at T120 very close to the ICON chart I posted earlier for Christmas Day with colder uppers crossing Ireland and N/W of UK!
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022122018/gfs-1-120.png?18 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
doctormog
20 December 2022 22:12:24
It’s not really very surprising there is so much uncertainty for the coming weekend given the prevalence of synoptics like this for Friday:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_84_1.png

UserPostedImage 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Zubzero
20 December 2022 22:13:32

You and Mog seem to react to anything anyone posts unless they are forecasting cold.

I am simply summarising the totality of the modelling as I see it: mild for most in the reliable.

That’s it. Hardly controversial (nor outwith the professionals’ predictions for that matter). 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



The MOGREPS postage stamps Brian just posted. Show then even in the shortish range mild is far from nailed on.
Brian Gaze
20 December 2022 22:14:15
Big Boxing Day snow event for parts of the north on the 18z.

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Downpour
20 December 2022 22:20:54

The MOGREPS postage stamps Brian just posted. Show then even in the shortish range mild is far from nailed on.

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 



It’s not ‘nailed on’ - what is in this country at that range? - but the totality of the output signals a mild outcome for the majority of the UK population in the reliable. That is not to say it’s certain, just that it’s the form horse at the moment and I would suggest betting accordingly. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Zubzero
20 December 2022 22:22:35

It’s not really very surprising there is so much uncertainty for the coming weekend given the prevalence of synoptics like this for Friday:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_84_1.png

UserPostedImage 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



It's a pity the heights to the South are to high. Could of been a classic Christmas cold snap if the low was futher south and east a bit. 
Downpour
20 December 2022 22:26:27

It's a pity the heights to the South are to high. Could of been a classic Christmas cold snap if the low was futher south and east a bit. 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 



indeed. It’s fine margins but we are on the wrong side of those margins up to and including Christmas Day I would say.

thereafter, however, all to play for. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Zubzero
20 December 2022 22:28:43

It’s not ‘nailed on’ - what is in this country at that range? - but the totality of the output signals a mild outcome for the majority of the UK population in the reliable. That is not to say it’s certain, just that it’s the form horse at the moment and I would suggest betting accordingly. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



It's mildish for the next 3 days then the uncertainty begins. How is mild the form horse please explain? 

There's a 10C difference beginning on Xmas day of the GEFS. Massive scatter that's why it's so uncertain.

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=283&y=83&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1 


 
doctormog
20 December 2022 22:34:45

It's mildish for the next 3 days then the uncertainty begins. How is mild the form horse please explain? 

There's a 10C difference beginning on Xmas day of the GEFS. Massive scatter that's why it's so uncertain.

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=283&y=83&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1 


 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 



Yes you’re right and the scatter up here is even more marked with a range of 10°C at only +78hr (on the 18z GEFS suite). The devil’s in the detail and small changes in one direction or another could make a significant difference to conditions over the weekend and indeed beyond. 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Downpour
20 December 2022 22:41:24

It's mildish for the next 3 days then the uncertainty begins. How is mild the form horse please explain? 

There's a 10C difference beginning on Xmas day of the GEFS. Massive scatter that's why it's so uncertain.

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=283&y=83&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1 


 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 



As I keep saying, beyond Christmas Day all to play for. Until that point, mild is very much the likely outcome for most. Not sure why this is so controversial!
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Zubzero
20 December 2022 22:50:33

As I keep saying, beyond Christmas Day all to play for. Until that point, mild is very much the likely outcome for most. Not sure why this is so controversial!

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



Thanks 👍 

18z gfs is not good mid-long term, collapses the mid Atlantic ridge the lows then hit a brick wall just before the UK Drawing up southerlys.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=234&mode=0 
 
Gandalf The White
20 December 2022 23:10:25

You and Mog seem to react to anything anyone posts unless they are forecasting cold.

I am simply summarising the totality of the modelling as I see it: mild for most in the reliable.

That’s it. Hardly controversial (nor outwith the professionals’ predictions for that matter). 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



On the contrary, I was simply highlighting that your stated level of confidence in the pattern was neither supported by the charts nor by the professionals.  Merely repeating the same error doesn't actually make you any more correct, just more intransigent and in denial of the uncertainties.

 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Downpour
20 December 2022 23:23:19

On the contrary, I was simply highlighting that your stated level of confidence in the pattern was neither supported by the charts nor by the professionals.  Merely repeating the same error doesn't actually make you any more correct, just more intransigent and in denial of the uncertainties.

 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



What ‘error’ is this? The ‘error’ of failing to forecast cold? 

My analysis of the modelling is mild in the reliable for most until at least Boxing Day. That’s it. Lights out. Like it or not. 

In future, I’ll only post when I can forecast the fanged-toothed ice wolves of Arctic hell biting down on a shivering humankind every day until Easter. 

Anything for a quiet life. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Tractor Boy
20 December 2022 23:33:15

You and Mog seem to react to anything anyone posts unless they are forecasting cold.
 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



Perhaps because this is the model output thread, not a personal forecasting thread. There is a difference.
Dave
Farndale, North York Moors
+1
fairweather
20 December 2022 23:33:22

Everyone can of course set their own expectations. However, it would be difficult to argue that the Troll from Trondheim didn't deliver in the south east. In fact it will be recorded as one of the most significant cold spells of recent years.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Indeed, I'm sure it will, especially the millions in and around London, a rare event it was indeed.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+3
fairweather
20 December 2022 23:54:38

A somewhat odd comment given the 12z UKMO run and the Met Office update.

For the Home Counties these are the approx maxima and minima over the Xmas period, using the UKMO run:

Xmas Eve:  Max 11, Min 8
Xmas Day:  Max 9, Min 8
Boxing Day: Max 6, Min 4
Tues 27:  Max 5, Min 1

Quite a clear trend, which is in line with the range of outcomes we have been discussing for several days.
 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Of course with average max now higher than in the past for London (risen from 7.0C to 9.5C) in the last ten years (https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/dec/16/snow-chance-how-a-white-christmas-has-become-less-likely-in-britain )
the temps for the Christmas period as above are above average, about average, below average, below average. Of course none would provide snow.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
21 December 2022 00:01:21

Looks mild and fairly wet for the vast majority of the UK population in the reliable. That’s really the long and short of it. 

Thereafter, something to play for. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 


Yes, sadly it looks that way looking at the Cardiff ensembles as I am, because I am going to Tenby over the Christmas period and what I didn't want was wet and windy!
S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
21 December 2022 00:13:35
Of course the easiest way to stop the childish bickering would be for Brian to define the temperature ranges for the categories of mild, average, below average and cold. because from my neutral position I am seeing it being more about semantics than the weather! There are people calling "mild" because it isn't below -3C 850hPa and others calling "cold spell" because it isn't above -3C ! Hence the problem. Seeing the same thing and calling it different. One man's meat is another man's gravy. 😂
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+3

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