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fairweather
21 December 2022 16:48:34

Well it’s a huge continental landmass, and cold Arctic air flooding south has no obstacles - no mountain ranges  going from west to east to keep the cold air north, no big body of water to moderate it. It’s just a straight path all the way down to Florida.

The US Deep South probably gets colder in winter than anywhere else in the world at the same latitude. Memphis in Tennessee fell to -21C in February last year - that’s further south than Malaga in Spain. 

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


Yes, exactly that. And people will say there is no GW !
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Jacee
21 December 2022 16:52:33

This might give a hint - I didn't know these charts existed until just now, I think they're new.

They're the 42-day ECM ensembles in meteogram form. Note that these are different to the more usual type, in that they show anomalies rather than absolute temperatures. This is for Reading, but pretty much anywhere is available by typing it in.

They show a signal for a cold first week of January and again for the second half of January. Nothing especially strong, but looking at the box-and-whisker charts it's around a 70% chance of colder-than-normal conditions at the beginning of Jan and around 65% at the end of the month... enough to be noted, I guess!

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_extended_meteogram?base_time=202212190000&lat=51.4333&lon=-1.0&station_name=Reading 

EDIT: And if you look up Inverness, for example, you'll see it barely struggles to average before dropping again. Looks like the mild/cold boundary will continue to be close to or over the UK, if ECM is correct anyway!

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Thank you for that link, that's gone straight to my bookmarks 😊 They look like the same ones Alex Deakin and Aidan McGivern use on the Met's often excellent 10-day trend videos to indicate the likely pattern in the extended outlook. For some reason I've never thought much more of them outside of the Met's usage.

I wonder what would trigger the signal for below average temperatures into January? Either we do get heights building back over Greenland or, as the GFS has sometimes shown, maybe we get higher pressure building towards Scandinavia?
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
idj20
21 December 2022 16:53:57
Our zonal set up is the end result of North America going big with the deep cold, but thankfully their big freeze is looking relatively short lived so perhaps there is still a glimmer of hope for us in terms of any return to seasonal Winter cold later on down the line.
Folkestone Harbour. 
White Meadows
21 December 2022 16:59:31
Intriguing Met office narrative in todays longer range update:

"Temperatures are likely to be around or a little below normal, with some generally colder conditions perhaps developing again around mid-January."

...if their prediction for December was anything to go by, this is encouraging for coldies as they were good at spotting the generally cold pre Christmas spell. 
+1
Retron
21 December 2022 17:05:01


I wonder what would trigger the signal for below average temperatures into January? Either we do get heights building back over Greenland or, as the GFS has sometimes shown, maybe we get higher pressure building towards Scandinavia?

Originally Posted by: Jacee 


Poke around a bit more and you'll have your answer:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-mslp?base_time=202212190000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202301300000 

A surprisingly strong signal for that far out. Of course that doesn't imply a Scandinavian High, but instead lows (and the jet) continuing to be further south than normal. As we saw in the recent cold spell, lows on a southerly track can be very interesting at this time of year!

I'd be interested to know what weight the Met Office apply to those 42-day ECM charts. Sometimes I think the majority of their mid-range output comes from them, but I'm sure they must use other inputs too (such as Glosea, which came to prominence in 2010, and Decider, which amalgamates various models into one set of overview charts).

Incidentally tomorrow will be the make-or-break day with those MetO written outlooks, as they seem to change most often on Mondays and Thursdays... coincidentally, the days the ECM 42 day charts update!
Leysdown, north Kent
+2
doctormog
21 December 2022 17:12:47

Poke around a bit more and you'll have your answer:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-mslp?base_time=202212190000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202301300000 

A surprisingly strong signal for that far out. Of course that doesn't imply a Scandinavian High, but instead lows (and the jet) continuing to be further south than normal. As we saw in the recent cold spell, lows on a southerly track can be very interesting at this time of year!

I'd be interested to know what weight the Met Office apply to those 42-day ECM charts. Sometimes I think the majority of their mid-range output comes from them, but I'm sure they must use other inputs too (such as Glosea, which came to prominence in 2010, and Decider, which amalgamates various models into one set of overview charts).

Incidentally tomorrow will be the make-or-break day with those MetO written outlooks, as they seem to change most often on Mondays and Thursdays... coincidentally, the days the ECM 42 day charts update!

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Nice find.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
JOHN NI
21 December 2022 17:47:27
I think some weight was also given to MJO moving into phase 7/8 during January. 
My gut feeling is winter 22/23 has a bit more to give yet…..🤔
John.
The orange County of Armagh.
johncs2016
21 December 2022 18:29:51

I think some weight was also given to MJO moving into phase 7/8 during January. 
My gut feeling is winter 22/23 has a bit more to give yet…..🤔

Originally Posted by: JOHN NI 



It was through watching Mark Vogan's videos that I first learnt about the MJO (I don't think that even gets covered on Gavin P.'s videos, so Mark Vogan is actually the main person on YouTube that I know of for that sort of thing).

From that, it was interesting to see how the positioning of the MJO might have been the major fact that brought us into that recent very cold weather and then brought us out of it despite all of the various other factors in place which have been acting against us getting any sort of cold weather (i.e. the westerly QBO, warmer than average SSTs and the strong upper polar vortex).

Mark Vogan has also hinted as well, that we could well see a change in the MJO which brings us a better chance of seeing some cold weather as we go into the new year, so it will interesting to see whether that happens or not.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Zubzero
21 December 2022 18:50:32

Nice find.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



The most encouraging signal to me is the weakening of heights to the south as we head into the New year.
David M Porter
21 December 2022 19:01:36

The ECM 12Z op run, while unsettled, does not scream notable mildness to me at least.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
doctormog
21 December 2022 19:11:03

The ECM 12Z op run, while unsettled, does not scream notable mildness to me at least.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



Yes, although it’s not particularly cold either. Quite mobile and unsettled.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Arbroath 1320
21 December 2022 19:38:14
In years gone by, coldies would have feared the worst in the current set up, with the American low smashing through that mid-Atlantic ridge in the early part of the models runs. The early output seems to have all the makings of a prolonged period of SW/W dominated weather over the UK, fired up by the building heights to our South.

EXCEPT

Looking further ahead though that's not really what the models and the long range forecasts are predicting. Something seems different about this Winter. Throughout the various model runs for the next week or so, the colder air is either over us or not far away from Northern Scotland.

The met office continues today with a cold theme in their mid to long term forecast, with some strong signals for notably cold weather towards the middle of January.

Interesting times.


  
GGTTH
JOHN NI
21 December 2022 20:00:54

In years gone by, coldies would have feared the worst in the current set up, with the American low smashing through that mid-Atlantic ridge in the early part of the models runs. The early output seems to have all the makings of a prolonged period of SW/W dominated weather over the UK, fired up by the building heights to our South.

EXCEPT

Looking further ahead though that's not really what the models and the long range forecasts are predicting. Something seems different about this Winter. Throughout the various model runs for the next week or so, the colder air is either over us or not far away from Northern Scotland.

The met office continues today with a cold theme in their mid to long term forecast, with some strong signals for notably cold weather towards the middle of January.

Interesting times.

  

Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 


Id say the bit about mid-January is a ‘hint’ at this stage rather than a strong signal….
John.
The orange County of Armagh.
dagspot
21 December 2022 21:05:20
and the hint for Christmas never bore fruit what hope is there for 3 weeks down the line
Neilston 600ft ASL
Narnia
21 December 2022 21:39:05
Totally agree. Any more than five days is just for fun. I would change that to about three days.
Gandalf The White
21 December 2022 21:47:31

Yes, although it’s not particularly cold either. Quite mobile and unsettled.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



That sums it up well, Michael.  The 12z ECM Op serves up a couple of mildish days and several cool days. Opportunities for snow over high ground in Scotland and perhaps the north of England, so pretty much what you'd expect at the tail end of the year.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


idj20
21 December 2022 22:06:44
Well, that looks like a crap Christmas Day for the southern contingence if the 18z output is to go by on. While it looks like I may be missing the worst of the rain, but not with the strong gales. I was hoping for a quiet benign day be it dull and damp or with some brightness, but still room for changes since it isn't a determinstic forecast yet and other models are showing slightly different outcomes.
Folkestone Harbour. 
shepherd
21 December 2022 22:40:02
It has been an interesting watch though, the gfs has backed away completely from the severe cold it was showing for Scotland, but the ECM never bought into it and has been proved correct again.
+2
The Beast from the East
21 December 2022 23:36:29

It has been an interesting watch though, the gfs has backed away completely from the severe cold it was showing for Scotland, but the ECM never bought into it and has been proved correct again.

Originally Posted by: shepherd 



yes and UKMO too also never bought into another cold spell. Very sad but that’s life. Now we look ahead to mid January as per some of the long range forecasts 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gandalf The White
22 December 2022 00:11:25

It has been an interesting watch though, the gfs has backed away completely from the severe cold it was showing for Scotland, but the ECM never bought into it and has been proved correct again.

Originally Posted by: shepherd 



There never has been any suggestion of 'severe cold' for Scotland over the Xmas period in the GFS output; cold, yes, and some support for the cold moving south. The cold moving south has cross-model agreement but it's now a transient 1-2 day event.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


ballamar
22 December 2022 07:33:58
When the man models don’t look great, always look at the random CFS. Usually something there to lift the spirits
Whether Idle
22 December 2022 07:39:00

When the man models don’t look great, always look at the random CFS. Usually something there to lift the spirits

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Each to their own.  If I ever tire of The GEFS or even ECM, then I tend to look for female models.😃
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
+2
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
22 December 2022 07:55:43
WX temp profile across Europe is cold N of a line lying W-E from the Scottish Highlands to the Baltic to N Ukraine to the Caspian, and the western end of this represents below average temps in those regions though not further E. The area of cold bulks up a bit in week 2 but stays more or lesss where it is. S Spain looks toasty. Rain for Atlantic coastal countries incl Britain both weeks, with an extension in week 2 across W Europe as far as the Urals matching the boundary of the cold air above.

GFS Op -  a generally persistent trough from mid-Atlantic to Norway with a W-ly regime at most times for Britain, but occasionally a section of the trough deepens and brings in a N-ly spell, usually only as far as Scotland; but watch intensification Mon 26th 980mb Orkney and Fri 30th 960mb Faeroes, the latter giving a cold snap for most. The pattern starts to shift Thu 5th and by Sat 7th Britain is under S-lies originating in N Africa, sandwiched between LP 960mb S of Greenland and HP 1040mb Poland.

ECM - looks like GFS but with an accelerated time frame; for Fri 30th read Thu 29th and for Thu 5th read Sun 1st.

GEFS - mean temp close to norm until Sun 1st (but with a dip Tue 27th; agreement between ens members starts to break down at this time) then rising steadily. Rain in most ens members from time to time throughout, some heavy falls in W. Best chance of snow around Mon 26th, but even then only for Scotland and to a limited degree (about 50% away from the Highlands)
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
ballamar
22 December 2022 08:03:31

Each to their own.  If I ever tire of The GEFS or even ECM, then I tend to look for female models.😃

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


haha 
Hippydave
22 December 2022 08:46:23
I guess at least there's finally some clarity on the setup - unsettled everywhere but cold enough for brief shots of snow for Scotland. Overall it looks mostly mild down here other than a brief chillier slot post Xmas. There's a suggestion in the ens the zonality may be 'average' or a touch below 850 temp wise from 29/12 to 01/01 but as a rule that generally manifests as mild for here, particularly overnight (may bring a touch more interest further North though!). Deeper in to FI and milder is the theme IMBY, with usual caveats applying.

Will be interesting to see if this pattern sets in or the ens start picking up a new signal over the next 4-5 days.



 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
+2

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