theweatheroutlook

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idot
  • idot
  • Advanced Member
27 December 2022 16:23:08


You seem to get very upset about the weather…….almost as if you take it personally, you should maybe go and speak to someone, i for one think its quite alarming behaviour 

Originally Posted by: fullybhoy 



How Jiries is - he takes it seriously. its a serious matter.
https://twitter.com/JohnathanSizz 

 
Quantum
27 December 2022 16:25:41
I'd still call it a weak signal but its getting stronger. Scandi high support stronger on the GEM12Z and GFS12Z compared to previous runs. Interested to see how many cold scenarios on the ensembles.

 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
27 December 2022 16:39:39
The weather isn't a matter of life and death. It's much more important than that.
Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
+1
Saint Snow
27 December 2022 18:27:03

I'd still call it a weak signal but its getting stronger. Scandi high support stronger on the GEM12Z and GFS12Z compared to previous runs. Interested to see how many cold scenarios on the ensembles.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Thumbs up for posting model output assessment 😉

I'm never enamoured with the prospect of a Scandy High as it rarely delivers here, but after the last week and half of really crap weather, I'd just be glad of dry and cold now. 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+2
Saint Snow
27 December 2022 18:30:57

rain band on the run

Originally Posted by: idot 



😀

When It's 64 (degrees Fahrenheit) 

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
Brian Gaze
27 December 2022 19:09:59
An odd cold run has been appearing in recent ECM and GEFS updates but they are still few and far between, at least for the south.

UserPostedImage


GEFS35 possibly picking something up during the second half of January.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
27 December 2022 22:42:09
GFS has decent development to the north but if heights remain to the south it is wasted! Hopefully could develop if it can push down and push low and split euro high. Not asking much
UncleAlbert
28 December 2022 01:13:31

GFS has decent development to the north but if heights remain to the south it is wasted! Hopefully could develop if it can push down and push low and split euro high. Not asking much

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



It appears (unfortunately on both counts) that for the time being at least  your request is the equivalent of asking for a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine.  As Brian alluded to recently the next week and may be again towards the middle of January seem a little bit similar to January 2014.  I just hope that any blocking to the East does not become only close enough to be our enemy as it did then, with repeated troughs being forced down towards the south of the UK, and these areas especially, remaining fairly mild, very wet, and often very stormy.
Surrey John
28 December 2022 07:58:16
 Short term (through to New Year’s Day)
Lows and fronts all over the Met office fax charts

Zonal, wet and windy, a rubbish end to the year

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/surface-pressure 
 
Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire
35m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
28 December 2022 08:04:16
GFS Op shows a picture of LP north of Scotland with strong SW-lies predominating across Britain and on a long way into Europe - but with a few brief interruptions: a small but intense LP 985mb N Ireland Sun 1st , another local LP 965mb W Scotland Fri 6th and then a much larger LP N Sea 960mb Sun 8th, the last of these extensive enough to bring in a 2-day N-ly. 

The WX temps are consequent on the Op pattern with a band of cool, rather than cold air extending from N Spain all the way to W Russia, even the super-cold over Siberia disappearing; and any cold staying to the N, i.e. Scandinavia, Iceland, and just a touch in N Scotland. Rain/pptn for Atlantic coastal countries continues, extending to the Baltic in week 1 and then across France down to the Adriatic in week 2. 

ECM has the same general pattern as GFS but omits the first two local LPs though it does show a much deeper LP winding up in the Atlantic 965mb Sat 7th (Sun 8th beyond end of run)

The Jet stream in the Atlantic is not especially strong but it is persistent in the area of the British Isles, beginning to oscillate somewhat after Sun 8th. I'm surprisd that the recent widespread storm in the US hasn't induced a major perturbation. EDIT Afterthought - this would tie in with reports that I heard saying that the very cold air in the States was quite shallow, less than 10,000 feet. That would allow the jet to pass over the top undisturbed.

FAX has a continual array of fronts across S England for the next week in addition to the more general LP further N. IMO floods can be expected. 

GEFS as yesterday, in the S mild at end of Dec (but this not appearing in Sotland where on the cool side of norm), then again around Fri 6th but this latter spell not lasting as long as forecast yesterday, mean temp back near norm from Tue 8th with the cold spell suggested by the Op above only in a minority of ens members. Rain more frequent and continual than shown yesterday, though Scotland gets a break around Tue 3rd.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
Brian Gaze
28 December 2022 09:41:45
Lots of blue and purple appearing to the west and northwest of the UK on the stamps.  


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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
28 December 2022 11:19:49
Looks like the reality is the Atlantic has too much oompf for a Scandi high to get a foothold. The potential is there but increasingly unlikely 
Gandalf The White
28 December 2022 11:41:02

Looks like the reality is the Atlantic has too much oompf for a Scandi high to get a foothold. The potential is there but increasingly unlikely 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



That is pretty much what I concluded.  I think the best chance of brief colder snaps will come from getting the trough east of us, into Scandi.  Anything more than the odd day or two will have to wait for the jet stream to die down, become more amplified or shift south. No real evidence of any of those happening in the foreseeable, which gets us towards mid-month.

Any slight disappointment is very much tempered by the reality of energy prices.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+2
Saint Snow
28 December 2022 14:01:57

Looks like the reality is the Atlantic has too much oompf for a Scandi high to get a foothold. The potential is there but increasingly unlikely 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



It's always stubborn heights over the Med that ruins our prospects. An active jet with northern blocking, or undercutting a Scandy High, and sending systems to the south of the UK (or over southern England, to benefit those living further north 😉) is actually great. Ideally in the winter we see reports of floods in Central Europe and ex-pats on the Costas whining about rain. 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Taylor1740
28 December 2022 14:22:58
It looks like a proper zonal pattern has taken hold now. Hopefully the jet can trend further south and we can at least get some cold zonality. However I wouldn't expect the zonal pattern to break until at least the second half of January.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
briggsy6
28 December 2022 17:32:51
Daily Express and others forecasting snowmageddon as US storms cross the Atlantic to Blightly. Clearly these journos  no nothing about meteorology as if they did would understand that the Atlantic modifies the cold to such an extent that all we end up with is lots of cold rain. But then why let an attention seeking headline get in the way of the facts eh?
Location: Uxbridge
doctormog
28 December 2022 17:38:00
The north south split seems to be continuing on the most recent output with only brief milder blips up here in a cool theme overall. Nothing like the wintriness from earlier in the month looks likely though and milder further south. You’re welcome to our cold rain if you like.

The main theme however as has been mentioned is the mobile, westerly and unsettled picture with strong winds and rain (and northern hill snow) never far away. 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Bow Echo
28 December 2022 17:43:55
 I'll probably get shot down for saying it, but the outlook  at present does not look to my eye like a flat zonal pattern with no interruptions. There are periods of zonality, yes, oscillating with more semi meridional interludes, both at 250mb and surface levels. I'd certainly call it mobile, with the usual sine waves on the spaghetti as depressions develop. But there is to me no absolutely raging zonality. Now I'm surely going to be called for reading it wrongly, but thats how it seems to me. Any time such a n intermittent pattern of zonal mixed with meridional kicks in, there are always surprises that can follow. But being the weather and fluid dynamics it will now go completley laminar I'm sure...
 
Steve D. FRMetS
Burton Latimer, Kettering, Northants


+2
Saint Snow
28 December 2022 18:48:50

Daily Express and others forecasting snowmageddon as US storms cross the Atlantic to Blightly. Clearly these journos  no nothing about meteorology as if they did would understand that the Atlantic modifies the cold to such an extent that all we end up with is lots of cold rain. But then why let an attention seeking headline get in the way of the facts eh?

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 



It may be a lazy representation but it's got some tenuous basis. Most of these frigid plunges that extend far southwards are the result of a buckling jet, which is one key ingredient of what the UK generally needs for cold. With lows that hit the UK coming from the west (mostly cyclogenesising - I'm sure that's not a proper word - off the US/Canada coast), it's an easy assumption to make. 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
28 December 2022 18:50:49

I'll probably get shot down for saying it, but the outlook  at present does not look to my eye like a flat zonal pattern with no interruptions. There are periods of zonality, yes, oscillating with more semi meridional interludes, both at 250mb and surface levels. I'd certainly call it mobile, with the usual sine waves on the spaghetti as depressions develop. But there is to me no absolutely raging zonality. Now I'm surely going to be called for reading it wrongly, but thats how it seems to me. Any time such a n intermittent pattern of zonal mixed with meridional kicks in, there are always surprises that can follow. But being the weather and fluid dynamics it will now go completley laminar I'm sure...
 

Originally Posted by: Bow Echo 



I agree with you. 

Zonality relates to a specific set-up, which isn't what we have at the moment. 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
dagspot
28 December 2022 21:59:00
Ben Rich  ‘Succession of fronts, mild and wet with teen figures, only occasional cold spells for far north well into New Year’
Sounds pretty zonal to me
Neilston 600ft ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
28 December 2022 22:06:19
Eye candy for the end of January
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=cfs&var=1&run=12&time=792&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
tallyho_83
28 December 2022 23:26:21

Eye candy for the end of January
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=cfs&var=1&run=12&time=792&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 
 

Originally Posted by: DEW 



Maybe in response to this SSW? - Seems to be a persistent theme now toward the end of the runs where by temps @ 10hpa rise significantly after the 1st week of January: - Here's for hoping anyway?! 🤞

UserPostedImage
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


ballamar
28 December 2022 23:35:44
Decent potential end GFS op run, heights building in the right places. At least something to keep an eye on if any support. Energy could slide but like CFS changes nearly every run!
GEFS might show a little more interest
UncleAlbert
29 December 2022 00:38:00

Decent potential end GFS op run, heights building in the right places. At least something to keep an eye on if any support. Energy could slide but like CFS changes nearly every run!
GEFS might show a little more interest

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Regarding the posts on the UK getting US weather and also on zonality, perfect zonality never happens does it?  That's the only way we would get an air mass directly from the other side of the pond, which as stated would be considerably modified even with the direct route.  If there was such a set up there would be no anticyclones nor depressions en route.  Conversely the perfect meridional flow never happens either so I in reality we can only talk in degrees of either state and currently I would say that we are experiencing a set up that has a fair degree of zonal bias.  I know that I may be stating the blatantly obvious, but of course we have to bare this in mind when using these terms.
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