theweatheroutlook

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Taylor1740
12 January 2023 18:41:43
Looks like the cold snap next week has upgraded significantly and we may get another 5 days plus spell of average temperatures below zero round here. Let's hope the trend continues.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
+1
Hippydave
12 January 2023 18:54:44
Steady as she goes for chilly and unsettled on the 12z GFS. I'm not paying too much attention to the nice deep FI section - suspect that'll be similar to the Easterly it showed the other day -> lacking support in the ens and gone for the next run.

ECM to T192 broadly similar, maybe a touch quicker to clear the cold air.

Post the chilly/colder 4-5 days I'd say HP settling over the UK, probably centered a little to the South is the favoured option although as the GFS op and some of the ens members show there's a small chance of it ending up somewhere more interesting. 

Hopefully though the chilly spell will bring some snow, even if away from Northern hills it's a temporary affair and outside of any little features it is looking drier than recently, which will be welcome too.

 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
White Meadows
12 January 2023 19:02:13
Crikey, Mooms gets more airtime than the Ginger ManBaby in here.

Extraordinary developments unfolding today, but we’ve been here before many times. Monday to midweek looks mostly cold, that is pretty much a given now. Beyond that let’s hope the LP dives south east and stays there for a bit. 
+1
White Meadows
12 January 2023 19:21:37
ECM latter stages 
…wtf?

❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️
fullybhoy
12 January 2023 19:32:30

indeed. You have to hand it to Moomin - his call was spot on. Much mocked at the time, yet spookily accurate. Changes afoot now, though, right on cue.

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



A broken clock is right twice a day………….
Aldo
Glasgow 165m/asl
 
+1
Lionel Hutz
12 January 2023 20:05:02
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=birmingham&charthour=006&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM) 
Solid agreement for next week, quite the upgrade from what we saw in the GFS ensembles yesterday. A little cooler and many of us could see a decent fall of snow, some of those charts suggest the possibility of disturbances cropping up at short notice. You'd probably have to bet on milder conditions next weekend, though. Perhaps a hint of another cool down in the further reaches of FI.
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



+1
doctormog
12 January 2023 20:29:39
I’m not entirely convinced by the 12z GEFS snow depth chart (especially the op run!)

UserPostedImage
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
moomin75
12 January 2023 21:15:44
Looks as though the 3 week zonal spell I'd called is coming to an end next week, with something pretty cold for a few days. 
Thereafter, it looks high pressure dominated now, but where that high pressure will end up is anyone's guess.

I would predict it will end up as a HLB/Scandi towards the back end of January and February will deliver the coldest weather of the entire winter.

I am anticipating a pretty wintry February, with winds largely from the east/northeast with snow opportunities nationwide.

As ever, time will tell.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
+1
Brian Gaze
12 January 2023 21:20:39

ECM latter stages 
…wtf?

❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Not sure what you mean?

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
12 January 2023 21:29:03
I would be very careful about claims of “calling” anything when recent evidence is clearly to the contrary.

11th Jan (yesterday)
“Not interested in a blink and you miss it cold "snapette".”
”Form horse remains mostly unsettled, mild and cool spells with a very brief flirtation with something cold, for about 24 hours.”

5th Jan (last Thursday):
”Yep, I'm afraid I think we can safely write off January now - even though it's only 5th.”

Anyway that aside the 18z ICON (which only goes out to 120hr) continues the theme shown in the other models from the 12z set: 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ICOOPEU18_120_1.png  
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+3
Tractor Boy
12 January 2023 21:42:32
...6th January:

"If we do get an SSW, it will not probably affect January now, but February, so I feel it's a safe bet to write off this month now.

If/when I'm wrong and the 2nd half if January turns cold, I will take all the hammerings that come my way. But I don't think January will deliver now."

👀
Dave
Farndale, North York Moors
+1
Brian Gaze
12 January 2023 21:49:48
Can we stay on topic and not turn this into a soap opera.

PS: If members want to make their own forecasts that's fine but please start a new thread for them.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
dagspot
12 January 2023 22:48:35
infallible bbc app icons (!) but all the snow icons from Glasgow gone now (Tue was heavy snow) and 8dc Thur,  9dc Fri…
Mmm. 
Neilston 600ft ASL
Matty H
12 January 2023 23:16:20

...6th January:

"If we do get an SSW, it will not probably affect January now, but February, so I feel it's a safe bet to write off this month now.

If/when I'm wrong and the 2nd half if January turns cold, I will take all the hammerings that come my way. But I don't think January will deliver now."

👀

Originally Posted by: Tractor Boy 



There’s absolutely zero chance that a SSW that’s not even happening anyway would affect Jan
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
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Quantum
12 January 2023 23:50:06
Am I in a separate universe or something?

We are on the brink of an extended cold spell, the end of which, keeps getting pushed back. Yes it may not be the most meridonial of cold spells but really who cares about the 500hpa pattern when you have deep cold lodged over the UK and loads of features coming over that cold air?


 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
+2
Matty H
12 January 2023 23:57:06

Am I in a separate universe or something?


 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Likely 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
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+3
Downpour
13 January 2023 00:12:36
After the much vaunted, now verified, 3-4 weeks of raging zonality, a colder, more interesting picture develops. Some potential next week for another dump for some. If it delivers here it will remembered as a remarkable winter - the snowy week was deep and prolonged, and even the zonal onslaught was epic in its own way. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
+1
Zubzero
13 January 2023 00:13:55

Am I in a separate universe or something?

We are on the brink of an extended cold spell, the end of which, keeps getting pushed back. Yes it may not be the most meridonial of cold spells but really who cares about the 500hpa pattern when you have deep cold lodged over the UK and loads of features coming over that cold air?


 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



I guess because for most the rain will just be colder. My least favourite weather type windy temps of about 5C and rain. 

Hopefully this zonal spell will finally blow its self out and it will calm down by the end of Jan as some ens members are showing.
Gandalf The White
13 January 2023 00:14:46

There’s absolutely zero chance that a SSW that’s not even happening anyway would affect Jan

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Maybe, maybe not.  A wind reversal at 10hPa across the US has been forecast for several days now on GFS, stretching from coast to coast.  Whether than turns into anything in the troposphere and whether it affects our weather are, as always, largely unknown.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


UncleAlbert
13 January 2023 00:17:19

Am I in a separate universe or something?

We are on the brink of an extended cold spell, the end of which, keeps getting pushed back. Yes it may not be the most meridonial of cold spells but really who cares about the 500hpa pattern when you have deep cold lodged over the UK and loads of features coming over that cold air?


 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



A far better description of where we are weatherwise in the UK, planet earth.  
Looking further down the line, I was just looking at the ensembly charts for around 12 days at the point the milder flow is well established.  The 850 graphs won't tell you the bigger  picture because although most of them are mild UK wise, there are a lot of 'blocky' scenarios and the 288hrs op which is on the anticyclonic side of zonal for the south is in the minority with quite an array of interesting charts showing quite a bit of potential on the other perts. So I continue to expect to be surprised by the models in the next few days  
tallyho_83
13 January 2023 00:36:10
This little channel low feature is one to watch for those in the south Tuesday 17th into Wednesday 18th January:
Could be very wet or very snowy or sleety - depending on the airmass - uppers have lowered to -6's and 7's @850hpa in the latest 18z GFS for this time.
UserPostedImage
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


nsrobins
13 January 2023 07:23:22

This little channel low feature is one to watch for those in the south Tuesday 17th into Wednesday 18th January:
Could be very wet or very snowy or sleety - depending on the airmass - uppers have lowered to -6's and 7's @850hpa in the latest 18z GFS for this time.
UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


But now eased back a touch. 4 days is a long time in typically marginal situations such that a forecast with any detail (especially ppn type) is impossible until just 12hrs out in some cases. 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 January 2023 08:25:04
WX temp charts for week 1 show cool widely across W Europe, even below norm for the furthest west, but above norm further east. However, warming up again from the SW in week 2 with the cool area restricted to the Alps and Balkans. Meanwhile the really cold stuff shows no sign of leaving Siberia. Pptn widespread across all W Europe week 1, big switch in week 2 with significant pptn only in N Norway and Turkey.

GFS Op: current LP moves E-wards as usual but followed by one moving SE to E Anglia 985mb Mon 16th with cold N-lies for all (the possibility of a Channel low doesn't show up; the BBC last night showed that as a lower probability scenario, but FAX places LP 979mb Bristol Channel) This fills and begins to move E-wards 990mb northern N Sea 990mb Thu 19th, then ridge of HP slowly infiltrates from SW, finally becoming a large centre over Britain 1040mb Thu 26th, still there on Sun 29th, very meridional, with N-lies on its eastern flank from Finland to Greece and on the west side S-lies from Azores to Iceland.

ECM: similar to GFS though around Tue 17th there are a couple of shallow secondary LPs over N France as part of the general LP complex, a pale echo of a real Channel low.

GEFS: temps drop to cold, say 6-7 C below norm Sun 15th - Fri 20th, some pptn at beginning and (for the S) end of period, good agreement between ens members, then mean temp returns to norm with a wide spread, op & control reaching 6C above this around Thu 26th but balance by many colder runs. Some ens members show rain around 26th and generally wetter in the SW. Snow row figures are lower than yesterday.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
Rob K
13 January 2023 08:44:13
One of my old friends who lives in Australia is in the UK at the moment. They arrived the day after the December cold snap ended and have endured wet windy dross for the whole time they’ve been here. They fly back on the 20th so will be hoping their kids who have never seen snow might get to see a flake or two before then, although the chances seem to be diminishing after yesterday’s glimmer of hope. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
Matty H
13 January 2023 08:45:52

Maybe, maybe not.  A wind reversal at 10hPa across the US has been forecast for several days now on GFS, stretching from coast to coast.  Whether than turns into anything in the troposphere and whether it affects our weather are, as always, largely unknown.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Agree with that, but the effects at the surface take weeks
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 

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