Allowing for run-to-run variation, this has consistently looked like a cold snap lasting a few days before a more westerly influence brings a returning polar maritime airmass and less cold conditions. Rather than turning zonal though, as others have said, high pressure is favoured to build north and east. I remain sceptical of both longer-term Scandi heights, mainly due to energy going over the top, as well as a SSW given the timeframe and shaky reliability of both going by current data.

In the nearer term, the first bouts of wintry interest come later this weekend as the colder airmass sinks southwards. A weak occlusion moves southwards during the first half of Sunday which will likely bring sleet and snow to northern hills with wintriness only likely to lower levels in any heavier bursts and of the wet variety.



UKV models the precipitation across northern England by Sunday afternoon with sleet and snow over the Pennines.




Now Monday's low, if going by the higher resolution models and the FAX charts, seems to be correcting southwards which may help entrench deeper cold, but we lose the interest of more significant frontal precipitation on the northern and western edge as the low drags colder air behind to undercut. The GFS 12z has started its own correction southwards compared to the 06z...



But that's by far the most optimistic with FAX charts modelling the low centre 100-200 miles further south over the channel, and likely all rain.



ARPEGE and UKV have the low further south still even when compared to the FAX. UKV barely scrapes the south coast with spells of cold rain with the ARPEGE also not interested in anything significant from the fronts wrapped around the low.





Regardless of what happens with Monday's low, we dive into much colder air than we have currently with a number of troughs shown on the 120hr FAX charts that will waver in position as we get closer to 0hr. It's wise then to emphasise uncertainty and the potential for surprises next week. In an unstable NW flow though you'd favour the north and west first and foremost, but we'll see how the track of that second low develops in the days ahead.



Have a great weekend everyone 😊
 

---

that’s like quoting the bloke down the pub

Good thing is ever since yesterdays GFS 12z both Operational and Control have been milder options or one of the mildest and same for today's 12z

---

 

Not really it's showen as snow because of the precipitation rate witch in reality wont be no wher near as intense,will be gone in half hour anyway.

I was commenting on what it was showing not whether it will be gone on the next update. Here are the snow depths associated with it. 

---

I've decided that the latest GFS has this nailed and I'm not looking at any other forecasts.I'll take the 30+cm of snow it shows down here through next week🤣 

---

 

And like I said it's basically a bug you rarely get precipitation rates from frontal precipitation that heavy In summer let alone winter. 

Wonder where all the Scottish lying snow is coming from… seems to be almost dry for most from Monday-Friday 

---

Snow charts are next to useless beyond a day if even 10% of the snow accumulation they show over time happend it would be snowmaggeden most weeks. 

Plus the high amounts show every mm of precipitation as a cm of accumulated snow. And the high amounts are for the tops of the hills,mountains shows up better on the ECM 
https://www.wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf®ion=uk&chart=snowdepth,mslp,mslp,mslp&run=12&step=120&plottype=ens&lat=55.347&lon=-22.309&skewtstep=0 

 

The overall pattern is this same on this morning’s output with a chilly and unsettled few days coming up followed by what is now a stronger, more robust sign for some very welcome and more anticyclonic conditions.

There is the prospect for snow, in particular for some more N and W parts, but given how volatile the coming days look I wouldn’t want to make a guess on the exact specifics. Cold and windy seems like more of a safe bet.

---

GFS has dialled back the snow chances but ARPEGE is now more snowy for the south. Met Office and BBC just say dry and sunny intervals. 

---

Bits and pieces of snow all over the place , and predictions varying from hour to hour https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/snow-risk  - and interesting stark temp contrasts continuing for a fortnight between England sandwiched between Arctic air to the north and continental cold to the south. Looks very unstable in model output terms to me. For the moment the MetO is playing down any pptn, sleety stuff along the S Coast at first and otherwise mostly dry for the week. I think it all depends on how fast the trough can move down from the north bringing cold with it. Anyway, back to the usual charts to review:

WX temps show a major advance in cold weather  - but not for Britain! Week 1 generally cool over W Europe including Britain, but in week 2 a new and extensive surge of freezing weather across the continent - but Britain slightly milder under Atlantic influence. Pptn widely across W Europe exc Spain in week 1, but in week 2 only in the Med, except for a little in N Norway.

GFS Op shows the well-forecasted trough in place Mon 16th from Norwegian Sea extending as far as a small local secondary in the Channel 985mb, and plenty of cold air from the N. By Wed the LP has twin centres, Denmark and Biscay, but then fills rapidly as a ridge of HP moves up from the SW to affect Britain, mild SW-lies to the W, cold NE-lies just about hanging on over Germany/E France Sat 21st. The ridge gradually moves N and stabilises with a centre directly over Britain 1040mb Sat 28th, extending into the continent a couple of days later.

ECM is similar to GFS though slower to bring the cold air all the way south, and eventually (Tue 24th) separating it off to become a cold pool over Italy.

GEFS has a well defined cold/very cold spell to Sat 21st with good agreement between ens members, then ten days with the mean back to seasonal norm and most runs not so far off that though are a few very cold outliers. Heavy rain Mon 16th esp in S, then mostly dry though some runs bring in a little rain in a fortnight's time, rather more in SW. Snow row figures large only in the Highlands and that only in week 1.

---

ECM showing signs of a prolonged cold spell again today with the chance for an easterly influence later on. 

Day 10 mean looks like a Euroslug though, so op is an outlier again, but hopefully a trend setter

---

A quick thumbs up to Brian for the new style GFS precip charts - definitely an improvement for me😁

Overall setup wise and if nothing else the consistency from both ECM and GFS has been impressive - colder air filtering south, followed by less cold air and a build of HP, probably centered to the south but low chance of something more interesting. 

I hadn't looked at the charts yesterday and my impression is the GFS has trended to a slightly less precip heavy colder interlude, although note it does have heavy rain with some snow IMBY early Monday AM.

---

UKV suggests a covering of snow is possible for parts of NW England, S and W Yorkshire into E Yorks and Lincs during the 00z-06z period on Monday morning due to a stalling occluded front ❄






ps, I also really like the changes to the GFS precipitation charts, thank you! 😊
 

---

GFS does hint at an option of a sliding low and continuation of the cold with a build of HP to the east

Yes, like EC, the ops are now trying to build a scandi block, buts it a race against the atlantic machine
even if it fails, at least we may get some dry and sunny weather at last

---

Ridiculous HP on GFS op run cold spell potentially incoming ! Obviously unlikely but good to see
think someone mentioned a good analogue month was Feb 86 

Different run, different details but the same more anticyclonic theme which is surely a good thing. I wouldn’t be bothered about individual runs showing the 06z GFS FI evolution at that timescale.

---

The gefs control run has been very promising, both on the 00z and 06z 

---

Yep, and the rest of the suite don’t really tell the whole story in that beneath the raw 850s are many blocky options, some with decent Scandy high builds.
The trend is definitely edging to a potential Scandy high, but it’s a fine balance going up against the main drivers which favour a flatter pattern going towards late Jan.

 

---

Yes but in the end FI range the blocking collapses and sinks so we are back to square one or too early to be talking about FI range? But yes medium term this looks good!?

---

Big snow event for parts of EA and SE on the the GFS 12z for Monday morning. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations/45h.htm 
 

---

Way futher north then the other models most have it grazing the far se at best and mostly of rain 
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome.php?ech=41&mode=101&map=0

Big difference at such short range  

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx?run=15&charthour=60&chartname=rain_rate&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Precip%20+%20cloud