The immediate interest lies with a stalled front across N England and a Channel low running E-wards tonight, both nicely shown on FAX, the low at 985mb. Neither, however, look as if enough cold air has been drawn S-wards for more than wet snow on top of hills - but it's marginal and could still provide a useful fall. More chance perhaps of snow for the S with another small low in the Channel 982mb Tue, also shown on FAX, with cold air having had longer to trickle S. FAX also shows a sudden abrupt flip from N-lies to W-lies on Thu.
Longer term, WX temps shows W Europe seasonally cold for week 1 and colder still away from Atlantic coasts and the Baltic in week 2. Further east it's still colder but nothing unusual, maybe even less cold than usual for that area. Pptn widespread across W Europe week 1, probably much of it snow, but very dry in week 2 with rain banished to either Britain & Norway, and the Med.
GFS Op echoes FAX, and goes on to show HP developing from the SW; by Sun 22nd SW-lies for Britain on one side and a cold pool over C Europe, later Italy on the other. The HP wobbles around a bit but is well established 1045mb Tue 31st.
ECM much the same as GFS
GEFS temps cold to Fri 20th then quickly back to norm with good agreement in ens members; mean then stays near norm with most members on the milder side, the average being dragged down by a collection of a few much colder runs. Spikes on the rainfall chart for the s Mon 16th and in the N Wed 18th else bits and pieces, perhaps more in the W later on
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl