theweatheroutlook

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doctormog
15 January 2023 14:21:11

MOGREPS now looking very mild going through next weekend.
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/mogreps/mogreps850london.png 

Originally Posted by: UncleAlbert 



They look around average? https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/mogreps.aspx?run=na&chartname=mogrepstmp&chartlocation=london  

and high pressure dominated: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/mogreps/mogrepsmslplondon.png  

In anticyclonic conditions in winter don’t read too much into t850hPa values in isolation.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
ballamar
15 January 2023 15:26:44
ICON looks fairly blocked esp in the south with an almost easterly 
Brian Gaze
15 January 2023 17:54:33
UK Met run keeps it quite cold in central and eastern counties next weekend.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmetuk.aspx?run=12&charthour=123&chartname=2m_max_temp&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20C 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
tallyho_83
15 January 2023 18:50:58
Gfs 12z shows impressive snow spike for London tomorrow:

UserPostedImagehttps://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=203&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


doctormog
15 January 2023 18:59:31

Gfs 12z shows impressive snow spike for London tomorrow:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=203&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1  

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



Although that’s a mean of 32 members where 4 show over 20 cm and 28 member show zero.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Tim A
15 January 2023 19:18:54
Perhaps some snowfall overnight in parts , very hard to tell though as the modeling is all over the place. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
squish
15 January 2023 19:29:20
Was the massive blob of precipitation heading into the SW modelled?  I'm assuming it is the reason for the snow warning for the SE..but looks interesting in my back yard shortly!
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
scillydave
15 January 2023 19:36:26

Was the massive blob of precipitation heading into the SW modelled? I'm assuming it is the reason for the snow warning for the SE..but looks interesting in my back yard shortly!

Originally Posted by: squish 

There's a huge upgrade from the ECM for the Southwest tonight in terms of snow however I'd take it with a pinch of salt as the HighRes models aren't buying in.I suspect higher parts of Dartmoor will get clobbered though. You may well be in luck Squish! 
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
nsrobins
15 January 2023 19:50:58

There's a huge upgrade from the ECM for the Southwest tonight in terms of snow however I'd take it with a pinch of salt as the HighRes models aren't buying in.I suspect higher parts of Dartmoor will get clobbered though. You may well be in luck Squish! 

Originally Posted by: scillydave 


Unless I’m seeing things that looks quite snowy already in Princeton 
https://camsecure.co.uk/dartmoor_princetown_webcam.html 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Downpour
15 January 2023 20:33:15
Interesting nowcasting this evening.

Dartmoor already has falling and lying snow and I would expect the higher parts of more eastern parts of the West Country also to feature.

By the time that system reaches SE England temps will have dropped considerably.

So, who knows?
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Brian Gaze
15 January 2023 20:59:56

Gfs 12z shows impressive snow spike for London tomorrow:

UserPostedImagehttps://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=203&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



Interesting.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
UncleAlbert
15 January 2023 21:05:25

They look around

 average? https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/mogreps.aspx?run=na&chartname=mogrepstmp&chartlocation=london  



and high pressure dominated: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/mogreps/mogrepsmslplondon.png  

In anticyclonic conditions in winter don’t read too much into t850hPa values in isolation.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



​​​​​​​Fair comment, should have looked at that, and I stand corrected.  Just thought that compared with previous runs the 850s had tweaked up quite a bit.

​​​​​​
Gandalf The White
15 January 2023 21:12:39

Interesting.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Interesting, because Meteociel shows the same extreme spikes.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


doctormog
15 January 2023 21:27:19

Fair comment, should have looked at that, and I stand corrected.  Just thought that compared with previous runs the 850s had tweaked up quite a bit.

​​​​​​

Originally Posted by: UncleAlbert 



Yes, I think you’re right about that, and for areas to the N and W I think that may translate to milder conditions. Further S and 
E it may turn out to be more seasonal when the time comes…maybe!
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
DPower
15 January 2023 22:12:58
Strong SSW being regularly modeled on the gfs op run and some of its ensembles (12z gfs op run has the the zonal wind speed down to 0m/s at around t323 mark then slowly recovers).  With the vortex being pushed to the east and the warming and GPH across the pole things are likely to get very, very interesting going through to the last few days of January and on into February. 
There have been several splits modeled  on the gefs runs and on the op run itself but we may not need one anyway.  I think the 12z gfs op run gives us a good clue to the direction of travel and synoptic pattern to come later in the month and onwards. With any top down strat warming they are an unpredictable beast with 2019 being the most recent total failure after many media, twitter and met forecasts of an imminent freeze only  to end up with no freeze and record warmth in February. 
Sometimes you will get an qtr ( quick trop response ) such as Feb 2009 and Jan 1985 for example, other times IF it does downwell it can take two or more weeks. 
The 12z op run kind of mirrors the warming and gph at 10mb later in the run which if correct would be a very QTR. The reason I am on board with this is the MJO will be moving through the cod and coming out in phase 1 and 2 with little trop forcing interfering in the downwelling from the upper levels. 
We should therefore start to see some very juicy charts appearing as we go through the coming days and week ahead.



 
David M Porter
15 January 2023 23:10:35

Strong SSW being regularly modeled on the gfs op run and some of its ensembles (12z gfs op run has the the zonal wind speed down to 0m/s at around t323 mark then slowly recovers).  With the vortex being pushed to the east and the warming and GPH across the pole things are likely to get very, very interesting going through to the last few days of January and on into February. 
There have been several splits modeled  on the gefs runs and on the op run itself but we may not need one anyway.  I think the 12z gfs op run gives us a good clue to the direction of travel and synoptic pattern to come later in the month and onwards. With any top down strat warming they are an unpredictable beast with 2019 being the most recent total failure after many media, twitter and met forecasts of an imminent freeze only  to end up with no freeze and record warmth in February. 
Sometimes you will get an qtr ( quick trop response ) such as Feb 2009 and Jan 1985 for example, other times IF it does downwell it can take two or more weeks. 
The 12z op run kind of mirrors the warming and gph at 10mb later in the run which if correct would be a very QTR. The reason I am on board with this is the MJO will be moving through the cod and coming out in phase 1 and 2 with little trop forcing interfering in the downwelling from the upper levels. 
We should therefore start to see some very juicy charts appearing as we go through the coming days and week ahead.



 

Originally Posted by: DPower 



Let's hope we see some more interesting charts over the coming few days. 🙂

On the point I have put in bold, I think Feb 2018 can be added to that list of quick responses in the troposhere. IIRC, there was a big SSW event sometime around the middle of that month and the Beast hit us right at the end and into March.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Rob K
15 January 2023 23:21:23

Unless I’m seeing things that looks quite snowy already in Princeton 
https://camsecure.co.uk/dartmoor_princetown_webcam.html 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Looking impressive there at the moment. Radar suggests quite a lot of sleetiness over a wide area. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Snow Hoper
15 January 2023 23:40:02

Strong SSW being regularly modeled on the gfs op run and some of its ensembles (12z gfs op run has the the zonal wind speed down to 0m/s at around t323 mark then slowly recovers).  With the vortex being pushed to the east and the warming and GPH across the pole things are likely to get very, very interesting going through to the last few days of January and on into February. 
There have been several splits modeled  on the gefs runs and on the op run itself but we may not need one anyway.  I think the 12z gfs op run gives us a good clue to the direction of travel and synoptic pattern to come later in the month and onwards. With any top down strat warming they are an unpredictable beast with 2019 being the most recent total failure after many media, twitter and met forecasts of an imminent freeze only  to end up with no freeze and record warmth in February. 
Sometimes you will get an qtr ( quick trop response ) such as Feb 2009 and Jan 1985 for example, other times IF it does downwell it can take two or more weeks. 
The 12z op run kind of mirrors the warming and gph at 10mb later in the run which if correct would be a very QTR. The reason I am on board with this is the MJO will be moving through the cod and coming out in phase 1 and 2 with little trop forcing interfering in the downwelling from the upper levels. 
We should therefore start to see some very juicy charts appearing as we go through the coming days and week ahead.



 

Originally Posted by: DPower 



Now I don't profess to know anything about the subject but I suspect you can't both be right...

There is a lot of guff and bluster posted on lesser forums and FB pages about a looming SSW. There is no SSW currently being forecast by any of the models that publish relevant data.
The latest GfS run gets the zonal mean component at 60N 10hPa down to +16 later on but not a reversal, one if the prerequisites for a SSW.
http://www.weatheriscool.com/prod/ztemp_multilevels.html 
As dramatic as the 10hPa charts have been, a warming at 10hPa does not necessarily mean or lead to an SSW. 
Pinning hopes for Feb on this is ill-conceived, ac it stands currently. 
 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
Zubzero
16 January 2023 00:03:20

Now I don't profess to know anything about the subject but I suspect you can't both be right...

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 



SSW are very complicated and  I think some people see this for example 
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=336&mode=10&carte=1   

And assume its a SSW event. (It's possible it could be my knowledge is very limited) 

I understand its something to do with wind reversel @ 60 degrees north. Plus I think some warming events can occur but dont propgate down the troposphere to affect the weather? 
nsrobins
16 January 2023 06:53:30

SSW are very complicated and  I think some people see this for example 
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=336&mode=10&carte=1   

And assume its a SSW event. (It's possible it could be my knowledge is very limited) 

I understand it’s something to do with wind reversel @ 60 degrees north. Plus I think some warming events can occur but dont propgate down the troposphere to affect the weather? 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 



My area of science is not atmospheric physics but I can read a chart and have garnered a useable understanding of the subject of SSW and the published effects. 
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202301120000 

This data suggests a nominal SSW is possible in a week, but the mean (even more useful in upper layer parameters) is not an SSW. It may trend that way, but as it stands (and EC data is similar) an SSW is not modelled. 
You can of course get fairly robust changes at the surface with just a reduction in u component and not a reversal, as you can see changes at 1000hPa that have nothing to do with 10hPa at all, and if you chuck in all the issues with propagation (quick or otherwise), you have a pretty complex puzzle to resolve.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
BJBlake
16 January 2023 07:10:54
Seemingly - this shallow low was a lot more extensive than was predicted, with snow right across the SE, as far north as Lavenham, Suffolk. Settling snow south-east of London: here is the web cam for Tunbridge wells showing snow, but not lying. https://www.freewayfastfit.co.uk/apps/livecam.html 
The GFS shows some snow for East Anglia later in the week, but I think we might miss out this time. The SE has done very well this winter: two shots on target and both hit the back of the net.  I got chatting in the pub with an even older timer than me, and he remembers many winters the village chaps were assigned spades to create a working party to dig out the roads. Evolving signs of a flaccid easterly emerging, which could develop further. We might get a flake here then.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
16 January 2023 07:40:50

Seemingly - this shallow low was a lot more extensive than was predicted, with snow right across the SE, as far north as Lavenham, Suffolk. Settling snow south-east of London: here is the web cam for Tunbridge wells showing snow, but not lying. https://www.freewayfastfit.co.uk/apps/livecam.html .

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 



Perhaps a little optimistic to describe this as snow - local reports suggest heavy sleet and wet snow - in my book, unless it settles, it doesn't count. The second small disturbance forecast for tonight now looks as if it will stay well out in the Channel, though snow showers are likely close to east and west coasts latter this week.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
16 January 2023 08:02:48
WX temp charts - cold weather over W Europe is coming and going in successive forecasts. Today's week 1 shows freezing weather in central areas, becoming more extensive in week 2 (Yesterday's charts; am showed freezing weather as more extensive, pm withdrawn to the E).Britain cool this week, a little milder in the S next week. Pptn fairly widespread across Europe in week 1, esp heavy  in Med, much drier in week 2 with pptn in Spain and N Norway.

GFS Op = main LP over Norway with small secondaries circulating round its W side (Ireland) and S side ( N France) keeping the N-ly circulation going until Fri 20th when HP pushes up from the SW, leaving a cold pool over Europe and milder SW-lies first for Scotland, by Mon 23rd more general. The HP moves NE-wards by fits and starts to arrive S Norway 1050mb Fri 27th with light E-lies and by Mon 30th SE-lies setting in.

ECM = like GFS for this week, then the HP looks like settling over Britain rather than Norway (1035mb Thu 26th)

GEFS = cold to Fri 21st, on the mild side to Thu 26th esp in Scotland, cooling down again but little agreement at this stage. Mainly dry. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Brian Gaze
16 January 2023 08:04:57
UK Met global showing an ice day in the home counties this Saturday.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
nsrobins
16 January 2023 09:06:42

Perhaps a little optimistic to describe this as snow - local reports suggest heavy sleet and wet snow - in my book, unless it settles, it doesn't count. The second small disturbance forecast for tonight now looks as if it will stay well out in the Channel, though snow showers are likely close to east and west coasts latter this week.

Originally Posted by: DEW 


True. I don’t think the ‘get the cold in and the snow will come’ adage will quite work this week as I can’t see anything other than coastal showers and the odd streamer/gap feature (eg Cheshire gap). Some pretty cold nights though and I’m sure favoured spots will get an ice day out of it. 
The weekend is still open to question as to how far and how fast the Atlantic gets in (UKM least progressive, GEM most - at the moment). There remains a 15% chance of heights rising enough towards the NE to develop something more blocky over the weekend.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO

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