theweatheroutlook

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Snow Hoper
16 January 2023 09:52:08

Seemingly - this shallow low was a lot more extensive than was predicted, with snow right across the SE, as far north as Lavenham, Suffolk. Settling snow south-east of London: here is the web cam for Tunbridge wells showing snow, but not lying. https://www.freewayfastfit.co.uk/apps/livecam.html 
The GFS shows some snow for East Anglia later in the week, but I think we might miss out this time. The SE has done very well this winter: two shots on target and both hit the back of the net.  I got chatting in the pub with an even older timer than me, and he remembers many winters the village chaps were assigned spades to create a working party to dig out the roads. Evolving signs of a flaccid easterly emerging, which could develop further. We might get a flake here then.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 



Missed out during the last spell here. This one will probably do the same, Had around 3mm of rain  here so far today.  The lack of deep cold air to the east is always a concern when looking for an Easterly. Seems to be a common theme these days. I know it can change given the right synoptic charts, but I'd much prefer the 78/79 European cold to tap into.

High pressure looks to be moving in after this little spell, frost and fog could well be the main problem as the high looks to find a new home. Hopefully it'll find it's way upto Greenland to enable some of the cold air to flood south.
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
Hippydave
16 January 2023 09:52:25
ECM ens IMBY show why placement of the HP cell is key, post the next few day's colder weather (and whether it removes any surface level cold as the HP builds) - yesterday's ens set was chilly, today the majority cluster at T2M level is average to mild. There's hints of a slight cool down circa 26th Jan so maybe backing up GFS ops idea of HP ending up further North as cells move in from the West and reinforce the HP near to us.

All in all I think (as Neil posted above) there's only a low chance of HP being anywhere favourable for bringing cold upper air over us, a somewhat higher chance of it bringing colder air at the surface, which is more likely the further south east you are. Overall though I'd favour average to mild post the colder interlude for most peopple if I had to make a punt just based on today's models although I think there's far too much uncertainty at the moment to have any real confidence in the mid to long term. 

 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Rob K
16 January 2023 10:19:24

UK Met global showing an ice day in the home counties this Saturday.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Is this the same model that was giving anomalous -20Cs over Scotland?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
16 January 2023 10:48:41
GFS 6z trying it's best with a easterly late on. Does seem the type of set up that could produce an easterly quite quickly.  No significant cold on the continent yet though.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
dagspot
16 January 2023 11:49:18
Carol Kirkwood suggesting 9dc in my neck of the woods come saturday. Perhaps ice days only further east.
Wonder if west onslaught being resisted?
Neilston 600ft ASL
Taylor1740
16 January 2023 16:00:04

Carol Kirkwood suggesting 9dc in my neck of the woods come saturday. Perhaps ice days only further east.
Wonder if west onslaught being resisted?

Originally Posted by: dagspot 


yes, as always whenever we get a cold snap the BBC seem very quick to forecast the breakdown 
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
ballamar
16 January 2023 16:02:35
GFS really isn’t far away from an easterly on the op run, although there is a trend for the high to sink a little before reasserting on a more northerly setting. Maybe it won’t get mild in the east
Jiries
16 January 2023 16:10:51

yes, as always whenever we get a cold snap the BBC seem very quick to forecast the breakdown 

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



I know they always have so much hatred with snow and cold and always want to avoid or in the hurry to go away.  In the past when we had no internet I used to rely on the German Channels weather teletext that came under Astra which had ample information for UK and knowing when we will get cold weather on the way here.  
Taylor1740
16 January 2023 16:28:15

I know they always have so much hatred with snow and cold and always want to avoid or in the hurry to go away.  In the past when we had no internet I used to rely on the German Channels weather teletext that came under Astra which had ample information for UK and knowing when we will get cold weather on the way here.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


yes it does seem like that, I can never quite understand why they are prepared to be so confident and bullish in predicting a breakdown of cold weather in what is an extended range forecast for them.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Karl Guille
16 January 2023 16:31:04
Quite a bit of consistency across the 12z models at T144 but can we expect high pressure to hang on in subsequent runs with the threat of an easterly of sorts?
 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
squish
16 January 2023 16:36:54
I think we might be looking east quite soon. Nice icon with cold air knocking on the door if the SE by .+180. 
12gfs looking pretty solid for a substantial block to develop 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Rob K
16 January 2023 16:41:15
Finally some proper cold air to the east on the GFS op run - will be a long slog to get the real cold here but it's looking slightly better.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
nsrobins
16 January 2023 18:04:07
A random skeg through the GEFS and there are a surprising number of HLB solutions and decent looking Scandy builds.
I might have to reassess my take on the next few weeks.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
ballamar
16 January 2023 18:06:57

A random skeg through the GEFS and there are a surprising number of HLB solutions and decent looking Scandy builds.
I might have to reassess my take on the next few weeks.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Definitely seems to be a growing potential but could just as easily collapse to a euro high knowing our winters! As you say potential is there
i think we could be walking into a cold spell similar to Feb 86 but small adjustments could mean extremely mild. Blocked is definitely the favourite where it sits…..
David M Porter
16 January 2023 21:34:55

I think the current suggestions from the models of a spell of HP dominated weather will be very good news to those areas that have been affected by flooding lately, whether it is of the cold or mild type.

At the weekend, I noticed that a lot of rivers and burns in my neck of the woods are swollen after all the heavy rainfall there has been since Christmas and I imagine that is the case in many other areas. In view of that, I think a spell of settled and dry weather is rather more of a necessity just now than a wintry spell.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+1
squish
16 January 2023 21:44:49
18z ICON never loses the cold in the SE before the block builds......

https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/run/iconnh-0-120.png?18 
 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
ballamar
16 January 2023 22:07:22

18z ICON never loses the cold in the SE before the block builds......

https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/run/iconnh-0-120.png?18 
 

Originally Posted by: squish 


GFS looks promising also
DPower
16 January 2023 22:31:45
Do not know why I can not quote a reply in my post, but when you get a poster admitting that they know little about SSW's yet before hand the poster talks about the guff and bluster posters talk about when there is a reasonable chance of an official SSW, split vortex or displaced or just major stratospheric warmings in general that can alter the dynamics and synoptics on a large scale in the troposphere then it should become very apparent that this poster is a complete and utter nob.
like any upcoming SSW, split vortices or displaced vortex it is a watching  brief for now but if like me you are looking for a memorable potent spell of wintry weather then things are starting to look very very exciting. The displaced and split vortices being forecast towards the end of the month ( yes it is just a forecast at this stage) look to put the UK and Europe in prime position for a possible severe wintry spell of weather.

 
Snow Hoper
16 January 2023 22:55:03

Do not know why I can not quote a reply in my post, but when you get a poster admitting that they know little about SSW's yet before hand the poster talks about the guff and bluster posters talk about when there is a reasonable chance of an official SSW, split vortex or displaced or just major stratospheric warmings in general that can alter the dynamics and synoptics on a large scale in the troposphere then it should become very apparent that this poster is a complete and utter nob.
like any upcoming SSW, split vortices or displaced vortex it is a watching  brief for now but if like me you are looking for a memorable potent spell of wintry weather then things are starting to look very very exciting. The displaced and split vortices being forecast towards the end of the month ( yes it is just a forecast at this stage) look to put the UK and Europe in prime position for a possible severe wintry spell of weather.

 

Originally Posted by: DPower 




yeah it's the nob here. I only quoted your post and SOMEONE elses post that indicates the opposite of what you are saying. So either YOU dont know what you are talking about or the other guy got it wrong!

 
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
+1
Karl Guille
17 January 2023 00:20:17
The op has support from a small set of ensemble runs looking to retain cool uppers over France with an easterly feed beyond the latter part of next week. Be interesting if this trend continues. Rain / sleet showers building over the Channel islands as I write.
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Zubzero
17 January 2023 00:55:05

yeah it's the nob here. I only quoted your post and SOMEONE elses post that indicates the opposite of what you are saying. So either YOU dont know what you are talking about or the other guy got it wrong!

 

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 

 
Was me  I think? Was just pointing out how some can mis understand 10hpa charts? 
Apart from that im baffled why he has nob rage. 

Back to the weather. It's increasingly likely that its going to settle down judging by the ENS, Where and how the high pressure sets up is anyone's guess? 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=18&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0&type=1&ext=1 
 
ballamar
17 January 2023 07:46:05
Blocked and settled by the look of things. In January can mean freezing fog which could mean very low CET. Will be nice to lose the rain for a while!
Rob K
17 January 2023 07:47:08
Increasing agreement on high pressure setting in with the GEFS mean for London sitting above 1030mb from the weekend almost to the end of the run. Looking like the high will be too far south to allow any real cold in from the east but that’s far from settled (no pun intended).
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 January 2023 08:05:11
WX temp charts remain unstable; more generally cool over W Europe for two weeks but actual freezing conditions more localised than  shown yesterday, mainly restricted to Alps and areas close to their north. E Europe is above seasonal norm, just about freezing week 1 but with an advance of very cold air in week 2. Week 1, pptn on Atlantic coasts and in the Adriatic, in week 2 these move apart, in a NW and SE direction respectively.

GFS Op. Current large trough of LP over Britain fed by cold N-lies weakens and begins to move off SE-wards by Thu 19th to be replaced by ridge of HP from SW extending from 1030mb Azores to 1040mb Finland, SW-lies (and a little rain?) for NW Britain, weak E-lies for the south. The HP re-organises itself  to be centred 1045mb Scotland Thu 26th drifting slowly SE-wards and giving Britain a long dry spell but back to zonal weather at the very end Thu 2nd

ECM. Like GFS but the cold pool over Europe around Mon 23rd is closer to Britain and may affect extreme SE for a day or two

GEFS. Cold now (ca 5C below norm) rising to norm by Mon 23rd , less abruptly than yesterday ( a couple of days sooner and more abruptly in Scotland), mild for a few days, then mean temp on the cool side from Fri 27th but little agreement between ens members at this stage. Very dry generally, some rain in Scotland  around Thu 25th, plus a bit from time to time in the far SW.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Ally Pally Snowman
17 January 2023 08:07:55

Increasing agreement on high pressure setting in with the GEFS mean for London sitting above 1030mb from the weekend almost to the end of the run. Looking like the high will be too far south to allow any real cold in from the east but that’s far from settled (no pun intended).

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Yes it could be much worse . Looks like the month long deluge has finally come to an end.

Where will the high end up? This mornings ECM hints at Greenland at day 10 but I'm thinking we could end up with a proper Scandinavian high early February. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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