Remove ads from site

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 January 2023 08:12:14
https://www.eldoradoweather.com/snow-ice-cover.html ). Rain in N Atlantic/N North Sea and the Adriatic in week 1, dry in between; both areas moving away to N and E respectively on week 2.

GFS Op - the current broad and cold trough moves away by Fri 20th just leaving a cold pool over Italy. Then HP steadily builds, first a ridge from the SW all the way up to Norway with most of Britain under SW-lies; the HP finally establishes over Wales 1045mb Fri 27th. It stays there strongly, or a little to the W, before collapsing S-wards Fri 3rd.

ECM - very much the same as GFS though the HP is a little further W with light N-lies for the E coast.

GEFS - cold at first becoming mild for a few days after Mon 23rd (sooner and milder in the N) but mean soon back to seasonal norm or a little below (op & control on the milder side). Very dry.  
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Hippydave
18 January 2023 08:19:22

Looks like we could be heading into a UK stubborn high with potentially cloud trapped under it. Which would mean cool days chilly nights and not much else, would suit some people who call it useable weather a term for boring days!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



I think it'll depend on where the HP sits. The ECM ens suggest a decent chance at least IMBY of some sunshine:-

https://weather.us/forecast/2639022-royal-tunbridge-wells/ensemble/euro/sunshine-duration-24h 

The night time temps are correspondingly low enough for some frost (with milder cloudy options too of course). 

The GEFS for London are also suggesting a decent chance of temps being in the low single digits overnight, which would suggest areas outside London may well see frosts too. 

Nout exciting but could be good if it's clear enough and whilst the HP remains there's always a chance it'll move somewhere more favourable, which you obviously don't get if we're in a flat zonal flow. (Glass half full mode!).

Re Jiries comments on this weeks temps ECM has them 3-4c this week for me, so a touch higher than it had been showing but not bad for the setup.
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
18 January 2023 08:42:00
The models are suggesting it is looking relatively dry compared to recently. This is welcome relief.  At the moment, any excursion on foot into the countryside generally involves wading or a mud bath.
Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
DickyBill
18 January 2023 08:55:16
Agreed - until this morning when the ice on the puddles bore my weight and that of the dog, so didn't have to clean him up either!
Rural Northants 69m ASL
johncs2016
18 January 2023 09:04:10

The models are suggesting it is looking relatively dry compared to recently. This is welcome relief.  At the moment, any excursion on foot into the countryside generally involves wading or a mud bath.

Originally Posted by: RobN 



I agree that this is probably the case for the vast majority of the UK and Ireland, but it has not been like that everywhere.

Indeed, even the Met Office mentioned that in a video which they put up on their main YouTube channel around a week ago. In that video, they showed us a chart which showed the rainfall totals for the first 10 days of the month so far compared to average. On that chart, large parts of the UK had already exceeded their 1991-2020 January average rainfall whereas large parts of the east of UK were still very dry at that time despite the very unsettled weather pattern at that time.

Edinburgh sits right in the midst of that very dry area and even as I write, a total of just 35.2 mm of rain has been recorded so far during this month at Edinburgh Gogarbank, along with just 26.8 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh. In the case of both of those stations, that is less than half of our 1991-2020 January average, even though we are now more than halfway through the month.

It is true that last Autumn was a bit wetter than average here with December 2022 also coming out wetter than average in the end. However, last year's massive rainfall deficits have never been fully made up here in the same manner in which this has been happening elsewhere and because of that, the SE of Scotland in particular (NE Scotland has been a bit wetter, as has been mentioned in a number of RichardAbn's posts) is probably going to be at the greatest risk of experiencing possible water shortage warnings from SEPA when it comes to the coming spring and summer if it ends being predominately dry from now on as the models seem to be suggesting.

This is therefore, one example of where we can't really say that any upcoming dry weather is a "relief", although I will add that we are very much an outlier in that regard so for most of the UK, it is still correct to say that any upcoming dry weather will be a relief.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
ballamar
18 January 2023 10:56:29
GFS op looks towards latter stages the jet could undercut the high which would be unusual even to be modelled. See where it goes
The Beast from the East
18 January 2023 10:57:48

GFS op looks towards latter stages the jet could undercut the high which would be unusual even to be modelled. See where it goes

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



One of those situations where we could easily end up with faster retrogression, just need a break upstream

But the main thing is it will be dry and no sign of the storms of last year
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
18 January 2023 11:26:54
GFS teasing with the high edging north and then shifting back southeast. Another easterly for the Balkans to finish.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ballamar
18 January 2023 11:29:40

GFS teasing with the high edging north and then shifting back southeast. Another easterly for the Balkans to finish.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


could be a few decent options in GEFS
control run looks promising
Ally Pally Snowman
18 January 2023 13:31:12

could be a few decent options in GEFS
control run looks promising

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Definitely a few bring in proper cold. P10 one of  the best ensembles you'll ever see.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=246&lid=P10&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
18 January 2023 13:52:54

Definitely a few bring in proper cold. P10 one of  the best ensembles you'll ever see.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=246&lid=P10&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



More like Feb 1991.or Jan 1987 that last time deliver real cold and snow here.  Now 32 years since last time to see genuine cold and  snowy weather.  Until now we had some chances but models took away from  us that enrage posters here. 
nsrobins
18 January 2023 14:03:01

Definitely a few bring in proper cold. P10 one of  the best ensembles you'll ever see.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=246&lid=P10&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I’m not enthused by the odd ENS member - you can always find a few in most sets. The mean paints the likely scenario - high pressure meandering around the UK for a week or so then options, the most likely a slow decay into westerlies, but that is in the guess zone so nothing but an idea. 
The chances of a decent NEly which would benefit most of us are hanging by a thread as it stands.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
ballamar
18 January 2023 15:41:29

I’m not enthused by the odd ENS member - you can always find a few in most sets. The mean paints the likely scenario - high pressure meandering around the UK for a week or so then options, the most likely a slow decay into westerlies, but that is in the guess zone so nothing but an idea. 
The chances of a decent NEly which would benefit most of us are hanging by a thread as it stands.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



something to cling to though, given the next step will probably dictate how the next couple of weeks will go. The odds favour a UK high in the output which more often than not sinks to bring in mild. Hopefully this year will see decent retrogression to bring decent winter weather for all - which is unlikely but possible
Quantum
18 January 2023 16:37:16
Both GEM and ICON are going in a very interesting direction. Height rises over greenland with a retrogression of the UK based high. One to watch.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
18 January 2023 17:33:24
WRF picking up a little feature in the flow tonight. I've drawn on the fronts

Full: https://i.paste.pics/53388e1af73c19944ae40456010e096a.png

UserPostedImage 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
nsrobins
18 January 2023 18:32:46
WTF is GEM up to this evening? 😂
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Quantum
18 January 2023 18:47:17

WTF is GEM up to this evening? 😂
 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


ICON does it too so its not without support.

Even UKMO to a lesser extent. GFS least interested with the ECM on the fence.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Arbroath 1320
18 January 2023 18:52:00

WTF is GEM up to this evening? 😂
 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


One of us coldies has hacked into their server 🤣
GGTTH
dagspot
18 January 2023 19:15:16
what is it up to… please share (unless its anything to do with Blow torches or Bartletts) 
Neilston 600ft ASL
nsrobins
18 January 2023 19:30:38

what is it up to… please share (unless its anything to do with Blow torches or Bartletts) 

Originally Posted by: dagspot 


I don’t do image share on the new forum - I’m not technical enough 😂
see https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php 
(select model of choice)
EC also hinting at enough retrogression to allow a Northerly down the line. A good set today for coldies.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
fairweather
18 January 2023 23:16:44
Hmmm ........ pub runs ain't what they used to be but high pressure all the way meandering about and could end up pretty much anywhere so plenty of opportunities for cold (or mild) and nice and dry.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Arbroath 1320
18 January 2023 23:56:35

Hmmm ........ pub runs ain't what they used to be but high pressure all the way meandering about and could end up pretty much anywhere so plenty of opportunities for cold (or mild) and nice and dry.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



Yep, the models haven't got a clue where the HP will be heading after it sits over us. GFS pretty much doesn’t budge it much at all. Just 1 of many possibilities. 

The Northerly tracked jet will need to weaken or otherwise the High will inevitably sink through time.
GGTTH
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 January 2023 08:10:12
WX temp charts show freezing weather hanging on in W Europe but rather uncertainly and moving SE into the Balkans in week 2 while Britain and areas near the Atlantic are cold at first but a little milder in week 2. Areas of pptn in N Atlantic and E Med in both weeks, fairly dry in between but not as bone dry as yesterday.

One branch of the JET looping around and mostly to the N of Britain while a much stronger branch runs through the Med.

GFS Op shows the current cold LP over Britain filling and moving SE to form a small but vigorous cold pool over Italy by Sat 21st; by the time HP has developed over Britain from the SW and continues to do so through the following week to be 1040mb Ireland Thu 26th (BBC weatherman suggesting a cool and cloudy HP which matches its SW origin, not bright and frosty). The SE occasionally gets a drier feed from the continent which becomes more general Sat 4th as the HP moves to S Norway 1050mb. 

ECM treats the HP differently, placing it W of Ireland on the 26th with NE-lies for the E Coast and potentially something quite cold for England, before moving it to the SW with W-lies for all Sun 29th.

GEM still quite keen on N-lies by Sat 28th, but not anything like as dramatic as last night's runs

GEFS becoming mild for a few days from the 21st (in Scotland) or 23rd (S England)  then mean becomes and stays a degree or two cooler than seasonal norm throughout. Pretty well dry for most of the time; some runs have rain in the W in 10+ days time
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Taylor1740
19 January 2023 09:59:37
Still no sign of anything significantly colder as we head into February.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Saint Snow
19 January 2023 10:17:59

WRF picking up a little feature in the flow tonight. I've drawn on the fronts

Full: https://i.paste.pics/53388e1af73c19944ae40456010e096a.png

UserPostedImage 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 





Just to say, well spotted   👍

You were bang on.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

Remove ads from site

Ads