theweatheroutlook

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ballamar
27 January 2023 06:26:35
Step away from the blocking - with more Atlantic driven weather. See what ECM comes up with
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
27 January 2023 08:29:06
Back to the model output of a couple of days ago - fascinating the way the models chop and change but it doesn't engender confidence. I wonder what's putting this uncertainty into the situation, especially GFS?

WX temps week 1 mild up the Atlantic including Britain, progressively cooler into Central Europe but more fragmented since yesterday's chart; in week 2 even milder more widely with any freezing weather confined to narrow band in the Alps - and Turkey. Pptn in week 1 on N Atlantic and E Med , in similar areas in week 2 but the Atlantic patch approaches W Britain. Both weeks v dry over continental Europe.

GFS Op - HP to W of Britain drifting S-wards allowing W/NW flow to set in for a few days. The HP is resurgent 1035mb Sat 4th England but moves SE to C Europe by Wed 8th so SW-lies affect Britain - make that SW-ly gales Tue 7th driven by v deep LP Iceland 930mb.

ECM - similar to GFS but the HP over Britain Sat 4th is less well developed, and by Mon 6th a very deep depression 935mb (isobars so close you can't count them accurately!) is approaching Ireland. GFS on this date has a small LP near the Hebrides.

GEFS - on the cool side though irregularly to Fri 3rd (some big dips in the N) after which on the mild side esp around Mon 6th (esp the op run in the S about 7C above norm a couple of days later). No rain until Sun 5th and not much after that in the S (that's changed since yesterday) rain in  NW Scotland starting up around Tue 31st and heavy and continuous by Tue 7th,
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
nsrobins
27 January 2023 09:09:46

… I still feel that we could be in for something from middle of February onwards, BBC forecast continue to forecast this as have the Met Office 10 day trend …

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



Have they? The UKM second period outlook hasn’t really changed much and this is what is currently displayed - ‘Temperatures are likely to be at or slightly above average, although brief colder spells remain possible.’
Not sure where you are getting the idea of something colder or continental driven into February.
Apart from the odd operational noise, the pattern still looks Atlantic driven with high pressure to the South. That’s until the second week of Feb. 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gusty
27 January 2023 09:47:18
Dare I say the clock is ticking.

End of January approaches and no falling snow for this part of Kent again so far this winter. In fact its nearly 2 years since snow fell in our part of the world (in the winter season). Last recorded was 9th February 2021 from that week long easterly.

Atlantic rules for the foreseeable although those 2 consecutive 12z GFS runs cannot be ignored. 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
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Brian Gaze
27 January 2023 09:57:33

Dare I say the clock is ticking.

End of January approaches and no falling snow for this part of Kent again so far this winter. In fact its nearly 2 years since snow fell in our part of the world (in the winter season). Last recorded was 9th February 2021 from that week long easterly.

Atlantic rules for the foreseeable although those 2 consecutive 12z GFS runs cannot be ignored. 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 



It has been an interesting winter. The Troll from Trondheim was one of the most impressive cold snaps I've experienced for a number of years around here. However, when you look at the reanalysis charts the depth of cold was not notable at all. The combination of a "lucky" snow event, low heights, short days and calm conditions resulted in something slightly special.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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+1
Taylor1740
27 January 2023 10:53:14
Starting to look like February could be an extremely mild month, I think it's a write off unfortunately in terms of cold, in fact going to switch off from the models for a bit as there seems to be nothing of interest now.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
ballamar
27 January 2023 11:11:09

Starting to look like February could be an extremely mild month, I think it's a write off unfortunately in terms of cold, in fact going to switch off from the models for a bit as there seems to be nothing of interest now.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


can you show an extremely mild chart please?
moomin75
27 January 2023 11:12:42

Starting to look like February could be an extremely mild month, I think it's a write off unfortunately in terms of cold, in fact going to switch off from the models for a bit as there seems to be nothing of interest now.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

Nothing of interest would imply a bland, average, dull month. On the contrary there are, it appears, a number of options on the table, with the latest 6z Op showing a potentially spring-like pattern emerging with gentle southerlies wafting up. ​​​​​​​

This is a similar pattern to the one that brought us 21c in February for the first time, although at present, it seems to bring us simply average temperatures.

But this can change. ​​​​​​​So, in my view, far from uninteresting, with still an outside chance of that high progressing north (perhaps north of east) to give us a Scandi high and some blocking to the north. ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​By definition that would point (potentially) to a month of two halves, with some very pleasant mild spring like weather to something colder and more wintry.    
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Brian Gaze
27 January 2023 11:31:42
On topic please.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
27 January 2023 12:28:41
Be interesting to see the 264 chart from ECM not sure the Atlantic would make much inroads. Definitely some interest as we go into Feb
doctormog
27 January 2023 12:58:23

can you show an extremely mild chart please?

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



I guess it could be extremely mild at times or indeed persistently mild for much of the time...or it may not be.

I'm not going to make a guess as this the wrong thread for that, but relatively small changes in the position of any high pressure could have significant impacts on temperature overall.

Given that the start of February is at around the limit of high confidence in the models then trends are the best we can look at beyond then. The clearest trend I can see is for anticyclonic conditions, more especially in southern parts.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
27 January 2023 14:10:00

Dare I say the clock is ticking.

End of January approaches and no falling snow for this part of Kent again so far this winter. In fact its nearly 2 years since snow fell in our part of the world (in the winter season). Last recorded was 9th February 2021 from that week long easterly.

Atlantic rules for the foreseeable although those 2 consecutive 12z GFS runs cannot be ignored. 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

No snow here either this winter but two very cold spells.  
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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backtobasics
27 January 2023 22:02:29

Dare I say the clock is ticking.

End of January approaches and no falling snow for this part of Kent again so far this winter. In fact its nearly 2 years since snow fell in our part of the world (in the winter season). Last recorded was 9th February 2021 from that week long easterly.

Atlantic rules for the foreseeable although those 2 consecutive 12z GFS runs cannot be ignored. 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 



the quicker it ticks the better, spring warmth please
+1
backtobasics
27 January 2023 22:03:53

It has been an interesting winter. The Troll from Trondheim was one of the most impressive cold snaps I've experienced for a number of years around here. However, when you look at the reanalysis charts the depth of cold was not notable at all. The combination of a "lucky" snow event, low heights, short days and calm conditions resulted in something slightly special.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



is the "Troll from Trondheim" trending on Twitter yet ? 
tallyho_83
28 January 2023 00:12:56

Have they? The UKM second period outlook hasn’t really changed much and this is what is currently displayed - ‘Temperatures are likely to be at or slightly above average, although brief colder spells remain possible.’
Not sure where you are getting the idea of something colder or continental driven into February.
Apart from the odd operational noise, the pattern still looks Atlantic driven with high pressure to the South. That’s until the second week of Feb. 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Aiden McGiven of Met Office said here from 24:30 if you wish to skip @28:00 mins he mentions later in February IF we get a response from this current warming:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VG1NIzQEUz0&t=1474s 

The decrease in zonal winds shown by ECMWF from 50m/s to 15m/s at 10hpa could help to encourage more High Latitude blocking!?
Models have performed really poorly - and I expect more chopping and changing !!
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Zubzero
28 January 2023 01:14:28
Vortex of doom ruining yet another big chuck of winter. A halfway house solution is a about the best out come with a frost and fog risk, 🌁 if skies are clear more likely in the south and east and wind and rain more likely for the north and west. Boring and Bland overall 😴 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&mode=0&carte=1&code=31&ext=0 

 
Zubzero
28 January 2023 06:40:20
The feeble high pressure to the Southeast is just strong enough to deflect the monstrosity that is the Vortex of Doom, but that just keeps us in no man's land. Such a boring and bland setup 🥱 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=234&mode=0  

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0  

The ECM shows the gargantuan vortex and all its horrific glory.  👻 

 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
28 January 2023 07:38:36
Still no consistency in WX Temp charts; the slightly milder weather for Atlantic coasts and Baltic is still there in week 1, with the freezing area around the Alps diminished; but in week 2, contrary to yesterday's chart, the freezing weather makes something of a come back becoming established over central Europe (and still Turkey!) with only the far west from S England down to Portugal really mild. Pptn still persistent over Atlantic coasts with some in the Med, moving a bit further E to affect Britain increasingly in week 2.

GFS Op - HP to SW of Britain until the end of January with W/NW winds becoming quite strong around 31st before the HP bubbles up over England 1040mb Sat 4th, directing cold air down into the Aegean. The HP then declines into Europe, losing its identity, and Britain's weather is dictated by a deep but distant LP near Iceland/Greenland (at its deepest 935mb Fri 10th) giving strong to gale SW-lies.

ECM - similar though winds later on are more W-ly than SW-ly

GEFS - mean temps not far from norm, a brief cool spell Thu 2nd, longer on the mild side around Mon 6th, dry in S until Wed 8th when rain begins to appear in some runs. Additional rain in Scotland  exc NE Wed 1st, more definite and heavier a week later.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
doctormog
28 January 2023 07:47:44
Tuesday night into Wednesday looks far from boring or bland for some northern parts unfortunately. I would expect to see a warning issued about it today or tomorrow. At this range it is still possible for the track and intensity to change but give me bland and boring over this  any day.


 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Jiries
28 January 2023 08:41:58

Vortex of doom ruining yet another big chuck of winter. A halfway house solution is a about the best out come with a frost and fog risk, 🌁 if skies are clear more likely in the south and east and wind and rain more likely for the north and west. Boring and Bland overall 😴 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&mode=0&carte=1&code=31&ext=0 

 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


Always in a wrong place and i feel sorry for those who live in Nuuk that really under brutal Vortex non-stop.  I see other gas giant planets picture show they have vortexes over the poles like Saturn poles.  Vortex and HP are the winter killers as both prevent LP running to Europe that they badly needed for sky industry and us having cold easterly flows to the UK. it win/win for both.
CField
28 January 2023 10:08:30
December I see as a delayed autumn month thesedays....its practically impossible to get " so called "conventional winter weather set ups in winter now that deliver good old fashioned snow events.December 2022 I see more as an out of winter  late autumn event  , January 2023 a miniscular air lock ...Best hope now I feel is for spring to deliver something spectacular as it could if that Azores high decides to play ball like it did in 2013.Ironically late autumn and spring can still deliver winter in the UK. 
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Gusty
28 January 2023 11:24:00
All time high pressure record under threat with this one.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=318&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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The Beast from the East
28 January 2023 11:36:37
GFS still much more amplified than ECM, but probably wrong
"We have some alternative facts for you"
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DPower
28 January 2023 12:13:14
Tallyho_83 could you tell me where I can view the ECM 10hpa zonal charts. I have looked in the model section but can not find them there. 
Thanks in advance.
doctormog
28 January 2023 12:35:05

Tallyho_83 could you tell me where I can view the ECM 10hpa zonal charts. I have looked in the model section but can not find them there. 
Thanks in advance.

Originally Posted by: DPower 



https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202301260000  
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 

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