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Bertwhistle
31 January 2023 17:09:52
GFS Op at T+333 has -15 across a swathe of the SE and S Midlands and perhaps -17 in Kent!
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
nsrobins
31 January 2023 17:24:26
Full on ‘91 redux on the GFS OP.
It’s very early days on this one, and I confess I’m quite surprised to see this scenario having resigned myself to a few weeks of the Atlantic.
Most of you know the hand here - observe with interest and see how the suite develops in supporting the OP. 
Interesting times ahead. 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
ballamar
31 January 2023 17:29:26
GEFS fall of a cliff around the 8th in the SE. Getting some momentum but obviously can disappear as quickly as it shows in the models
Ally Pally Snowman
31 January 2023 17:29:58
Spectacular GEFS loads of -10 runs. Game on!
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
The Dub Version
31 January 2023 17:32:39
Didnt GFS pickup 40c back in summer?
😁
Berkshire
Retron
31 January 2023 17:34:36
Plenty of excitement about the GEFS, it seems! And no wonder - for the first time this winter, a good chunk of members are showing proper deep cold.

However, from my POV I won't be getting excited just yet. These are the EPS plumes for 850s from this morning's ensembles:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202301310000&epsgram=classical_plume&lat=51.5084&lon=-0.125533&station_name=London 

Barely any of the 50 members go below -10. That may change, but until it does...

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202301310000&epsgram=classical_15d&lat=51.5084&lon=-0.125533&station_name=London 

(EDIT: The 15day EPS for London shows an easterly cluster, but it's not an especially strong signal at the moment. Look for the sub zero day maxes to increase beyond 10% before getting excited, I'd say!)
Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
31 January 2023 17:40:05
P6 goes for a decent easterly in less than a week.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Hippydave
31 January 2023 17:52:53
Been interesting watching the weak signal for an easterly over the last few days - it's never been a favoured option but it has kept popping up. 

Similar to some comments and given the ECM and GFS output hasn't yet made it anything other than a minority outcome, I'll not be getting too interested just yet. I think the chances of getting more chilly HP weather for 3-5 days have increased now, with better agreement that the HP will develop far enough North for that at least.

 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
The Beast from the East
31 January 2023 18:00:53
Shame about UKMO. We need this on board. GFS led us up the garden path in December.
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
ballamar
31 January 2023 18:10:02

Shame about UKMO. We need this on board. GFS led us up the garden path in December.
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I think UKMO is wrong with its evolution but time will tell
nsrobins
31 January 2023 18:38:15

I think UKMO is wrong with its evolution but time will tell

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Is this evidence based - asking for a friend.
As I said earlier it’s really just the first salvos we are seeing and this will take three or so days to resolve. 
That said, you have to start somewhere and it’s good entertainment at least.
Nice to see Darren engaged - you know something is brewing when he’s thinking of triggering tge ensemble watch.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
doctormog
31 January 2023 18:54:28
The ECM 12z op run seems to be more in line with the overall picture (including ensemble data) with high pressure somewhere to the east or southeast with anticyclonic conditions over much of the U.K.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gandalf The White
31 January 2023 18:57:23

Shame about UKMO. We need this on board. GFS led us up the garden path in December.
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



I've refrained from getting involved in the early stages of the usual excitement because it all looks much too tenuous at the moment.  If the jet is going to keep powering west-east to the north of the UK then any sustained block is going to be difficult.   The 12z ECM Op shows what happens; the word 'steamrollered' comes to mind.  Unless the jet stream profile changes then I'm afraid I remain sceptical. 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


ballamar
31 January 2023 18:59:48
ECM down to earth with a bump - keeps it interesting wouldn’t be fun if the cold was guaranteed 
Bolty
31 January 2023 19:11:08

I've refrained from getting involved in the early stages of the usual excitement because it all looks much too tenuous at the moment.  If the jet is going to keep powering west-east to the north of the UK then any sustained block is going to be difficult.   The 12z ECM Op shows what happens; the word 'steamrollered' comes to mind.  Unless the jet stream profile changes then I'm afraid I remain sceptical. 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Yes, I think it's just a case of the GFS experimenting with the different possible outcomes at the moment, which is after all what it and the other weather models are designed to do. If we get towards the end of the week and it's still suggesting a cold easterly, and the ECM gets back on board as well, then I'll take a bit more of an interest, but I agree that it seems very precarious at current.

I usually don't take much interest in cold spells until the Met Office start mentioning it anyway.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
tallyho_83
31 January 2023 19:59:26
I looked at 12z - seems like ENS have trended much colder with a mean -6.7c 850's on 8th in London - then saw ECM and thought oh back to square one but then again the ECM op was a milder run. Look forward to 18z. I think some models are reacting to this displacement of PV following the stratospheric warming last week.

 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


nsrobins
31 January 2023 20:05:15


I usually don't take much interest in cold spells until the Met Office start mentioning it anyway.

Originally Posted by: Bolty 


Which they did in todays update  - in a very tenuous way, at least.
Caution is advised as we all know these things. Have a habit of going pear-shaped, but that’s half the fun. Let’s see what happens.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Matty H
31 January 2023 20:21:55

Interesting the Met office have put that in their forecast.
GFS wont have the details right yet but I'd say an easterly is looking more and more likely now.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Only a week ago some of the worst winter storms that we have had were projected at 7 days by some outputs. The reality is the polar opposite

I’d say there’s a chance rather than it being more and more likely. 

We’ll see 
Yate, Nr Bristol
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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
31 January 2023 20:48:00

Certainly notice that with my heat pump. While it is still cheaper than my old heating in all conditions, the jump in energy usage is enormous when it's subzero, due to the defrost cycles. Now the weather has warmed up a few degrees it is costing less than half what it was a week or two ago.

But I still prefer the frosty weather, and the 00Z GFS has got me a tiny bit interested after what seems to have been weeks of deathly dull model output.

00Z ensembles have quite a few cold options but look less good for prolonged cold than the 18Z set (which I didn't see at the time).

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

We wondered what ours was doing when it went into a defrost cycle!  Underfloor heating is great with the ASHP though.  Hoping we can get solar with battery now to help with running costs in clear frosty weather!  
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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The Dub Version
31 January 2023 20:57:03
Regarding models performance,it's the first mild day down south for weeks...for over week they had been forecasting mild and now what's happened to the much touted mild wet n windy weather?
Berkshire
Brian Gaze
31 January 2023 22:08:46
ECM ENS.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx?run=latest&chartname=ecmwfens850&chartlocation=london 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Hippydave
31 January 2023 22:18:23
A quick look at GFS/ECM/UKM and GEM at around T104 to T120 and UKM is the flattest and consequently HP never really takes hold. GFS probably the most amplified although only a small amount more than the ECM and GEM at that stage - suggests it's fairly well balanced as to whether the pattern will flatten or develop in to an Easterly although ECM ens not keen on anything too cold. (They do though have 3-5days where there's decent grouping around -2 to -5c at 850 level, which isn't a bad signal as I usually find the ECM ens get colder closer to a colder spell, not sure if that's just a result of how many members there are or just my dodgy perception).

Hard to call at the moment imo - if you went with what normally happens you'd say UKM will be closest but if you were analysing what the models are showing I'd say UKM won't be closest and a few days of chilly HP dominated weather is probably favoured before the pattern flattens off. You can't ignore the possibility of an easterly or cold south easterly though although that's still only an outside chance as it stands. More runs needed and all that😋


 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
+1
tallyho_83
31 January 2023 23:12:39
Well the 18z GFS Control and Op run show easterly even at 168 there is some agreement with -10c uppers heading westwards toward the south east of UK, daytime maxes at 12pm on 7th February are in low single figures:

Operational @ 168z on 7th Feb:
UserPostedImage

Control @ 168z on 7th Feb:
UserPostedImage

ECM & GEM at 168z aren't so interested but are older runs only show 12z runs but still even they are showing daytime maxes of -1c to +6c widely.

I am keen to see where both Control and Operational sit in amongst the 18Z ENS or if they are both cold outliers!?

All eyes on tomorrows ECM & GEM - will it won't it??

 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
31 January 2023 23:53:35
We could be in for a bit of a mini easterly like in February 2017 - If tonight's 18z GFS run comes about or upgrades as it has done throughout day this reminds me of the mini easterly we had 6 years ago Feb 2017 if either Operational or Control comes off  bringing back 9th and 12th February 2017, can anyone remember it? It was a drier easterly but there were snow flurries for the south esp Friday into Saturday.

We had a mini easterly which then went south easterly and we had snow flurries on Friday and Saturday esp the South - and a small pocket of -10c uppers briefly pushed westwards before the high sank SE wards. - This also followed a warming of the stratosphere end of January 2017 like what we had few days ago - So will 8th - 12th February 2023 will be a deja vu of 8th - 12the February 2017? - We shall see? See below and compare with what's happened recently more so how similar this is to GFS Operational and control run!?

Thursday 9th February 2017

UserPostedImage

Friday 10th February 2017

UserPostedImage

Saturday 11th February 2017

UserPostedImage

Sunday 11th February 2017

UserPostedImage

Monday 13th February 2017

UserPostedImage
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


UncleAlbert
01 February 2023 00:34:05
The most striking thing about the GFS Ens this evening is the spread of synoptic type. The Scandy easterly still on the table but a UK HP equally possible, as is a return of the Atlantic and even a snap northerl later on. My hunch is for HP just north east of the UK around t+240 with a spell of fairly cold and for the most part dry weather for 4 or 5 days centred around that time. But Interesting model watching next few days.
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