WX charts in week 1 show freezing weather over N Scandinavia and N Russia with a cool hangback over W Europe (the continent's temp is well below average for the time of year). In week 2 the freezing area is much reduced though still to be seen near Iceland and a general warming to normal temps. Significant warmth only in SW Iberia, however. Very dry week 1 Biscay and Baltic, Britain in the damp patch between but far more rain in E Europe; in week 2 the dry areas shrink and move E respectively, leaving a band with centres of pptn from the Atlantic across Britain to the Alps and Turkey.

GFS Op - HP soon establishes Spain to Norway (Britain 1030mb) retreating to a principal centre 1030mb Finland Fri 7th with shallow trough moving SE-wards 1015mb Kent. The Spain-Norway axis of HP reasserts itself for the Easter weekend but again splits with a shallow trough over Britain Fri 14th - but this time backed up by LP from Atlantic 980mb Rockall Mon 17th.

ECM - similar pattern to GFS though the trough Fri 7th arises over the near continent rather than moving across from the Atlantic; and a little earlier. The later split in HP is already apparent by Wed 12th but also showing a fine Easter w/e. 

GEFS - In SE mean temp near seasonal norm with quite close clustering of ens members, a little above from a week ahead. In Scotland and the W, mean is more variable, being milder than cooler over the next 10 days, then resuming norm. Small amounts of rain becoming more probable later on.

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WX charts show very little freezing weather left in Europe in week 2, and that mostly to the far NE. Still quite cool down through C Europe to the Balkans (which are well below seasonal norm) but becoming milder in the W including Britain. Dry from Morocco to Norway in week 1 and from France to Norway week 2 with rain on the W fringe of British Isles. More significant rain in E Europe & turkey in week 1 and generally through the Med in week 2.

GFS Op - current ridge of HP Azores-Norway weakening in the centre Thu 7th when there are separate centres Azores & Finland (FAX shows shallow LP 1005mb N Sea at this time). HP revives and moves W-wards, to be positioned England-Norway Sun 9th with a repeat performance; weaker in the centre Thu 13th under influence of Atlantic LP but after a period of S/SE winds back in full strength Wed 19th 1030mb England to 1040mb Finland.

ECM - similar to GFS to Sat 8th but then  the HP moves to the continent as deep LP near Greenland pushes troughs forward over Britain, esp to the NW, with some breakdown from Mon 10th (BBC Meteo Group also hinting at this). Eventually  (12z run at time of posting) Wed 12th LP centred 1000mb Hebrides.

GEFS - mean temps near norm for the next fortnight (milder in N to start with) but more variation in ens members after Thu 13th than was shown yesterday. A little rain this week, then dry until Thu 13th when small amounts start to show in various ens members

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WX summary shows freezing temps restricted to far N Europe and breaking up into ever smaller patches. Still quite cool for C Europe in week 1, becoming milder as is most of Europe N of the Alps. Spring warmth in Mediterranean, hot in S Spain by week 2. Band of patchy rain Atlantic - Britain - Germany - Turkey in week 1, expanding slightly and becoming heavier week 2.

GFS Op - current ridge of HP Azores to Norway splitting Thu 6th as trough moves E across Britain , re-forming by Sun 9th for the Easter w/e but splitting again on Tue 11th. The LP pushing the troughs E-wards deepens and localises 975mb W of Ireland Wed 12th before filling and becoming one of a series of LPs moving past/over NW Scotland while pressure stays fairly high over England. The last of these LPs settles in the N Sea 995mb Wed 19th bringing in N-lies.

ECM - similar to GFS until Tue 11th when the HP does not split so much as retreat S-wards for a day or two. After that the LP develops off NW Scotland, not Ireland, and a day later but ECM then promotes HP strongly with the ridge from Azores NE-wards back Fri 14th

GEFS - temps close to seasonal norm for next two weeks; a little rain this week then dry until about Tue 11th after which small amounts at  most times in most ens members.

CFS suggesting that Aug will be the standout hot month of the summer with temps 10-12C above norm - believe it when you see it!

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WX summary shows freezing temps restricted to far N Europe and breaking up into ever smaller patches. Still quite cool for C Europe in week 1, becoming milder as is most of Europe N of the Alps. Spring warmth in Mediterranean, hot in S Spain by week 2. Band of patchy rain Atlantic - Britain - Germany - Turkey in week 1, expanding slightly and becoming heavier week 2.

GFS Op - current ridge of HP Azores to Norway splitting Thu 6th as trough moves E across Britain , re-forming by Sun 9th for the Easter w/e but splitting again on Tue 11th. The LP pushing the troughs E-wards deepens and localises 975mb W of Ireland Wed 12th before filling and becoming one of a series of LPs moving past/over NW Scotland while pressure stays fairly high over England. The last of these LPs settles in the N Sea 995mb Wed 19th bringing in N-lies.

ECM - similar to GFS until Tue 11th when the HP does not split so much as retreat S-wards for a day or two. After that the LP develops off NW Scotland, not Ireland, and a day later but ECM then promotes HP strongly with the ridge from Azores NE-wards back Fri 14th

GEFS - temps close to seasonal norm for next two weeks; a little rain this week then dry until about Tue 11th after which small amounts at  most times in most ens members.

CFS suggesting that Aug will be the standout hot month of the summer with temps 10-12C above norm - believe it when you see it!

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I might be wrong but that secondary low spawning in the mid Atlantic on Saturday may well be the one that could scupper Easter Monday for the western half of the UK 🌧 The GFS has a system moving in through the day from west to east - the more persistent rain being on the northern extent of the front presumably as the low deflects north of the UK nearer the time.

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Still in FI but 16th/17th has for a few runs looked like being the first 20c of the year, 12z Op follows suit on this.

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In the temp summaries freezing weather has disappeared from all but N Russia by week 2, Though W Europe is below norm for week 1, everywhere becomes milder in week 2; Iberia however is warm now and becomes warmer. Week 1ptn in a band from the Atlantic across Britain and on down to Turkey but unlike yesterday this band shrinks and in week 2 only extreme W of Britain and also Turkey having significant amounts of rain.

GFS Op - trough sinking SE-wards across Britain through to Friday, followed by pressure rise which just about lasts out the weekend. The succeeding LP is deeper and arrives sooner than shown yesterday, 1000mb N Sea Tue 11th, 970mb Malin Wed 12th, before pressure rises over the near continent, staying thereabouts up to Fri 21st with prospect of fine weather in SE and Atlantic fronts brushing the NW. Winds from a S-ly direction.

ECM - less extreme than GFS with Atlantic LPs 11th/12th not as deep and further to NW; but following HP slower to establish and restricted to S England, that is at least to Sat 15th

GEFS - good agreement of ens members on mean temp near norm to Mon 10th, then rising and falling for a few days but becoming milder though less certain from Sat 15th. Highest chances of rain now, and again around Wed 12th.

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Seems that prospects of a drier than average April is eroding away as the Atlantic wake up and do it’s usual thing after the Easter Weekend. Oh well, was nice while it lasted. 😂

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Not looking too bad in the longer term if the trend on the 12z GEFS continues. A majority of ensembles going well above average and pretty dry, with a similar but slightly less dry scenario here and further north.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png 

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Latest GFS and ECM Ops runs look much more unsettled than other recent runs. Ensembles still hanging onto drier weather, especially in more southern and eastern parts. Is this the start of a change?

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WX temp charts show a step back for Spring with N parts of Scandinavia back in the freezer, a difference from yesterday. The Baltic also cooler than previously shown, and the rest of W Europe (bar Spain) not advancing from its present somewhat below norm temp for the next two weeks. Rainfall pattern as yesterday, though; week 1 a band of rainfall from the Atlantic though Britain & C Europe to Turkey, still there in week 2 but with the heaviest rain from France to Poland.

GFS Op - HP hanging on to Easter Sunday, but then large area of LP moving in from NW (more so than previously) and settling N of Scotland while secondary LPs run across England (quite deep, too - 980mb SE Scotland Thu 13th). Then a period of zonal weather, W-lies with pressure generally low over British Isles until the N-S ridge of high pressure returns Thu 20th, later than forecast previously. Basically, a week of LP has been inserted into what was previously a period of generally high pressure.

ECM - similar to GFS (the secondary LP appears a day earlier and deeper, 965mb N Ireland before moving to E Scotland). The zonal period to follow is there, too, but overall the pressure is a little higher.

GEFS - temps up and down either side of seasonal norm until Sat 15th, then quite mild in most runs but op and control much cooler in the S, the former finishing about 8C below mean on Fri 21st. Rain for a few days either side of Thu 13th, dry before that and in the S also afterwards. 

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A few warm runs in the GFS ensembles later in April. A few 25C plus peaks in London and even 20C in Glasgow. Not sure we'll get that high but certainly a warming trend beckons. 

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We badly need that now and it very normal for April warm maxes of 23C to 25C for few days. I was hoping to be repeated like 2018 April which reached 29C in Epsom follow by great long summery 25C to 32C to August after a poor March like we had last month.

Easter weekend weather looks fine, bar some cloud on the East Coast, until Sunday/Monday night when FAX shows a front crossing the country, with a bit of luck clearing to leave April showers for Monday itself.

Longer term temp summary on WX has reversed yesterday's revival of colder conditions; freezing weather now tucked up in N Russia by week 2, most of Europe mild though cooler in W than E in week1. In week 2 really warm in Portugal and this working its way up into France. The band of rain noted yesterday from Atlantic across C Europe to Turkey is still there for week 1 but moving N-wards and less intense in week 2. Very dry in W Med and in week 2 around the Black Sea.

GFS Op - after the weekend, the Atlantic pushes troughs across Britain, particularly deep 970mb S Ireland Wed 12th to E Scotland Thu 13th. There follows a week of zonal weather, LP to the NW and HP to the SE, W/SW winds in between but overall pressure a bit higher than shown yesterday.  Then HP moves in, eventually Sun 23rd 1030mb mid-Atlantic with Britain on the fringe and possibly cool. Pressure over Europe generally high for the w/b Fri 14th, and low for the week following.

ECM - very much like GFS but overall pressure somewhat higher during the zonal spell.

GEFS - temps up and down but not far from norm until Sat 15th then a mild spell  (very mild in S) mostly peaking Wed 19th (one dramatic outlier reaching 15C above norm on Fri 21st). Rain frequent in w/b Tue 11th, damp from time to time afterwards esp in N.

Reviews over the Easter weekend may appear at irregular times as I'm away, but expect to have ready access to the Internet.

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Wednesday Storm still looking very nasty. Hopefully will shift northwards over the next few runs

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As yesterday, only the far N of Europe affected by really cold weather in the coming weeks, but W Europe continues cool with warmth from the S only spreading into Iberia and (week 2) S Russia. Rain generally across Europe from the Atlantic to Turkey in week 1 (but Iberia is dry) then in week 2 becoming more localised, mainly from Norway to Greece (Britain still a bit damp). Source WX charts.

GFS Op - Atlantic LP progressing steadily into UK Mon 10th, breaking up into a number of centres notably 980mb Wales early Wed 12th (further S but not as deep as shown yesterday) and pressure remaining low over Britain and W Europe until Sun 16th. The Azores High then tries to move up from the SW but retrogresses to mid-Atlantic Thu 20th followed by a period with LP over W Europe generating NE-lies for Britain.

FAX places the storm on Wed 976mb midday over E Anglia

ECM (yesterday's 12z after Thu 13th, at time of posting) - similar pattern to GFS but Wed's storm much less intense (995mb Scottish border)

GEFS - temps up and down either side of norm with good agreement between ens members until Sat 15th followed by a very mild spell around Thu 20th, temps declining later, rapidly so in N & E. Heaviest rain w/b Tue 11th, after that occasionally damp in S but persisting in N.

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Wednesday definitely potentially quite stormy can imagine warnings coming soon. Plenty of time for track to change, but could be some nasty weather across England 

WX charts banish any freeze to far N of Russia by week 2. The rest of Europe stays cool for week 1 but shows signs of returning to norm in week 2 but for pleasant warmth, the Mediterranean coasts are the place - inland still looks cold for that area in week 2. Rain in week 1 generally across Europe exc the far SW and far NE, changing round in week 2 with rain then in Scandinavia and the Med, Tunisia - Italy - Turkey.

GFS Op - make the  most of today, deep LP 975mb Clyde by Wed 12th (BBC Meteo places it further N, FAX shows it running all the way up the W coast) moving N and filling as HP moves up from the S and settles as a broad area in the N Sea w/b Mon17th (peak 1035mb Wed 19th). This HP moves to the Atlantic with N/NW winds for Britain which promote a trough for W Europe. Tue 25th indicates a return to traditional zonal (but deep FI, note) with a pressure rise over Euope and a 965mb LP for SW Iceland.

ECM - similar to GFS though this week's LP not as deep but (12z at time of posting) slower to clear. The HP which follows is balanced by LP on the Atlantic so winds instead of being light are quite strong from S/SE

GEFS - after today, cool with rain until Sat 15th after which a mild, even warm in the S, spell either side of Tue 19th, mean cooling to norm later. Dry in the S for the mild spell with a little rain in the N and later everywhere though ens members increasingly disagree. 

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It's not really model output for weather per se but both the BBC and Met Office forecast very high pollution levels for Tuesday and Wednesday unless I'm looking at this in the wrong way. I'm, assuming the VH in the purple level means Very High.


Even this one shows Very High pollution levels for the two days.
https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/forecasting/locations?q=Dorset&day=3#map_summary 
If so, what might be the reason for this "very poor" air quality forecast?
Surely Atlantic westerlies give some of the cleanest air in the UK.
Any suggestions would be welcome thank you. 

Nick

 

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FWIW, Accuweather's air quality forecast just has "fair" for those days down here. It must be the model the BBC and MetO use which is coughing up the high numbers - for whatever reason.
 

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Embedded Saharan dust perhaps? 

Actually looking at windy.com currently looking like a lot of surface ozone around 

Well it's got to that time year when looking at the ensembles l look first at the SLPs and second at the 850s.  Good to see that currently the GFES give promise of a settled spell for the week after next, and that the the 00hrs ECM op seemed to be pointing in the same direction...... fingers crossed!

I really hope so. My wife & I are going down to Exeter next Saturday and staying until the following Friday, so some pleasant settled weather would be very welcome!

Indeed, and this is from the DEFRA website: “Outlook : Please note, due to a model issue, the air quality map is showing incorrect data. Low air pollution levels are expected throughout, due to periods of strong winds and occasionally heavy rain.”

https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/forecasting/?day=3#forecast_map  

 

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Thank you Michael and everyone who's been able to solve this mystery. 
Nick

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