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johncs2016
07 May 2023 18:48:05

Not been a bad first week of May here, to be fair. Overall, probably very typical for the time of year with average temperatures. There's been some rain and showers but also a fair amount of sunshine too. Today has been lovely: 18.9°C and long spells of sunshine.

I'm just hoping tomorrow's rain doesn't come off or is weaker than expected though.

Originally Posted by: Bolty 



I'm generally not too bothered about it raining here as our rainfall totals have been very low during recent months, especially in comparison with the rest of the UK so if anything, more rainfall will be greatly welcomed here if that then helps to stave off any possibility of any water shortages arising during the summer from any ongoing lack of rainfall here.

What I am more concerned about for here is the overall pattern because after such a long period which has been dominated by easterly winds, it would be nice to be actually get back to a westerly pattern of weather for a change.

As I write, we are now less than a month away from the start of the meteorological summer and yet, our highest temperature of the year so far continues to be no higher than around 15°C which is absolutely pathetic for this time, especially when you consider that our highest temperatures of many of our most recent winter months have tended to be not much lower than that.😡

Our usual prevailing wind direction as we are taught in our geography classes at school, is from the SW (at least, that used to be the case when I was at school which is going back an awful lot of years now).

Nowadays, there is hardly ever any shortage of those westerlies during the winter months when they are bringing in mild air from the Atlantic Ocean and thus, depriving us of that cold and snowy weather which we usually crave for at that time of the year.

When we actually want those westerlies to be around though, it then becomes a completely different story. If we did actually get those westerlies just now, it might still not necessarily be sunny here, but we would at least have a better chance of getting some warmth from that as a result of those winds blowing offshore here. As a result, this is probably a good example of a time when we could do with that sort of westerly setup but as is often the case, these westerlies have now been posted missing in recent times, now that I have been looking for such a setup.

Of course, the reason which we have been in such an easterly dominated period of weather just recently has been down to those Atlantic weather systems passing to our south and thus delivering a lot of wet weather to our south, whilst it has been much drier here due to that blocking high to our north.

In order for us to get into that more westerly pattern which I'm looking for, we need to be on the southern flank of those low pressure systems, rather than being to the north of them. That in turn, would also bring us onto the warm side of the Atlantic jet stream and that is what I would actually like to start seeing from now on.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
doctormog
07 May 2023 18:50:35



UserPostedImage  

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Spot the difference.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
richardabdn
08 May 2023 17:00:05
 It's just the nightmare of June 2007 all over again. The fog and murk only disappears when the rain arrives 👺🤢

This extra holiday is as welcome and wanted as a hamper filled with various kinds of animal💩. Working is more enjoyable than being off in this sick disgusting garbage and that is exactly what I did today. So little opportunities to do the things I enjoy it's an endurance test and an utterly miserable life no better than slavery 🤢🤢🤮

10 completely sunless days during April/May has already beaten my previous record of nine in 2012 and six of those were at the weekends. It's just breathtakingly vile like nothing on earth even the most pessimistic could expect at this time of year.

Dullest first week of May in my records smashing the previous record which was set only last year 🙄. 2021 was poor as well, with even lower temperatures than this year, so that's three years on the trot that, what should be the best time of year is as grim as the worst. Although technically that's not true this year as no part of the year should be anywhere near as repulsive as this.  That's reflected in there only being one November in the past 17 years where the first week was duller than this grotesque May -2019. Not even November 2014 the dullest month I have ever recorded started this bad 😲🤮

First Week of May Sunshine Hours:

2008    64.2
2020    61.3
2017    58.8
2011    58.1
2007    53.7
2013    52.4
2009    44.4
2012    42.1
2021    39.0
2018    38.7
2015    36.8
2014    35.0
2019    32.2
2016    30.0
2010    24.1
2022    23.7
2023    11.8

First Week of November:

2020    28.4
2013    28.1
2012    27.6
2011    27.1
2008    25.8
2006    24.9
2015    24.1
2010    23.5
2021    23.1
2017    22.7
2009    21.9
2022    21.9
2007    21.4
2016    21.2
2018    16.0
2014    15.6
2019    5.4

🤢🤢🤢🤢🤢

A sick disgusting joke. I'd rather be living in any other era than the tedious seasonless hell of a weather vacuum that is the 21st Century. Constantly unpleasant, uninteresting and unfulfilling like no other era in recorded history.
Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
moomin75
08 May 2023 17:21:56
Another filthy day, this pattern is stuck in a rut, and I would be very surprised if we see any decent warmth until mid June (if at all).
Summer pattern well and truly set in.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
cultman1
08 May 2023 20:31:53
I think you may well be right the omens don’t look good 
johncs2016
08 May 2023 21:19:01

Another filthy day, this pattern is stuck in a rut, and I would be very surprised if we see any decent warmth until mid June (if at all).
Summer pattern well and truly set in.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



I know that you have always been well known here for telling us all that we are going to in for a miserably wet summer every single year (especially on the Model Output threads), even though we have actually ended up with some fairly decent summers in quite a number of those years.

However, the law of averages also tells us that if you carry on giving us that same prediction every year, there is bound to come a point in time in the end when that prediction will actually be right.

On that note, I am beginning to wonder whether or not, this will finally be the year when that happens.

Here in Edinburgh, we still have an ongoing rainfall deficit to be made up and if the overall trend is for it to become wetter here over time in the outlook period, that isn't going to bode very well for the coming summer as a result of that now only being a few weeks away.

Furthermore, there have often been a number of teasers during those springs leading up our recent best summers which have suggested that there was a good chance of that happening.

Most notably, the Azores High which we tend to rely on for giving us those decent summers would already be ridging into the UK at times. As a result, Gavin P. would then often describe the Azores High as being very ridgy in his videos where he would then go on to tell us that this would be very good news indeed if that continued into the summer (as it so often did on those occasions).

However, we haven't really seen any of that this year and this tells me that the Azores High is more likely on this occasion to be absent rather than present during the coming summer, no doubt being all too happy then return to our shores a further 6 months down the line and thus spoil yet another winter.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
moomin75
08 May 2023 21:39:12

I know that you have always been well known here for telling us all that we are going to in for a miserably wet summer every single year (especially on the Model Output threads), even though we have actually ended up with some fairly decent summers in quite a number of those years.

However, the law of averages also tells us that if you carry on giving us that same prediction every year, there is bound to come a point in time in the end when that prediction will actually be right.

On that note, I am beginning to wonder whether or not, this will finally be the year when that happens.

Here in Edinburgh, we still have an ongoing rainfall deficit to be made up and if the overall trend is for it to become wetter here over time in the outlook period, that isn't going to bode very well for the coming summer as a result of that now only being a few weeks away.

Furthermore, there have often been a number of teasers during those springs leading up our recent best summers which have suggested that there was a good chance of that happening.

Most notably, the Azores High which we tend to rely on for giving us those decent summers would already be ridging into the UK at times. As a result, Gavin P. would then often describe the Azores High as being very ridgy in his videos where he would then go on to tell us that this would be very good news indeed if that continued into the summer (as it so often did on those occasions).

However, we haven't really seen any of that this year and this tells me that the Azores High is more likely on this occasion to be absent rather than present during the coming summer, no doubt being all too happy then return to our shores a further 6 months down the line and thus spoil yet another winter.
 

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 



If only the TWO archive went back far enough, you will see that actually, I don't ALWAYS go for doom and gloom, and I've gone for hot summers several times, and equally, I've gone for cold winters too, if I see a pattern emerging. 
My methodology is always pattern matching, which is as inexact as any other methodology, but there is (in my view) something in it if springs are as wet as this, that the summer pattern will follow in the same vein.

That was true of 2012, which, when the pattern changed just after Easter to cool and wet, it stayed resolutely cool and wet throughout the entire summer. 

I wish I could dig out some of my thoughts for previous summers where I went for a hot and settled one, to prove I am not always the harbinger of doom.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
johncs2016
09 May 2023 00:11:44

If only the TWO archive went back far enough, you will see that actually, I don't ALWAYS go for doom and gloom, and I've gone for hot summers several times, and equally, I've gone for cold winters too, if I see a pattern emerging. 
My methodology is always pattern matching, which is as inexact as any other methodology, but there is (in my view) something in it if springs are as wet as this, that the summer pattern will follow in the same vein.

That was true of 2012, which, when the pattern changed just after Easter to cool and wet, it stayed resolutely cool and wet throughout the entire summer. 

I wish I could dig out some of my thoughts for previous summers where I went for a hot and settled one, to prove I am not always the harbinger of doom.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Fair enough (I have only been a member of this forum, so I don't know you from before then and have only been going by what others have said on this forum) but if you went on to read the rest of my post, you will see that I have actually agreed with you on this occasion, as regards to your assessment as how the coming summer will end up panning out because I don't believe that we will get a decent summer this year either for the very reasons which I have just mentioned.

Now you have talked about wet springs leading to wet summers, but it isn't actually everywhere in the UK which has actually had a wet spring so far and here in Edinburgh, it has actually been slightly drier than average during this spring up until now which means that we could actually do with experiencing a wetter period here in order to avoid any issues regarding possible water shortages further down the line.

Going by that, does your methodology therefore mean that those areas which haven't been as wet during this spring might have a better chance of getting a decent summer this year than your own neck of the woods (I am assuming that it has probably been very wet where you are during this spring, going by how you have mentioned that)?

Finally, I will also add that we had a wet spring in 2018, but we still managed to get a decent summer that year so it's not necessarily every wet spring which will lead to a wet summer. For that reason, I also don't want to be completely writing off the coming summer at this stage, just because the majority of the UK has had a wet spring.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Jiries
09 May 2023 04:54:59

Another filthy day, this pattern is stuck in a rut, and I would be very surprised if we see any decent warmth until mid June (if at all).
Summer pattern well and truly set in.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Now down to less than 6 weeks to longest day and your last post about drought. true drought only in countries that experienced high temps and prolonged months of dry weather.  Very wet here this morning so any rain never ever be welcome.  Long dry spells are much welcome and needed break from all year round dampness.   Cyprus had severe hailstorms that gave some good covering like snow last Saturday.  That is very interesting storms than here just lame wind and rain. 
Frank H
11 May 2023 16:33:21
Last time 20c was reached here was 11 September 2022 - 8 months ago
Wrightington, Wigan
richardabdn
11 May 2023 16:52:47
Even more vile and revolting than last week which shouldn't be possible. Horrifically dull, horrifically wet, horrifically unpleasant like nothing on earth we should be getting at the worst time of year never mind the supposed best 🤢

Nowhere else is enduring the crap we're being subjected to. It beggars belief. Relentless and unceasing filth off the North Sea regardless as to the general synoptics. It just defies any rational explanation.

NE Fife, which had endured an even worse start to the month than here has been enjoying some glorious warm, sunny weather this week whereas we continue to be subjected to worse than appalling conditions that would shame the Faeroe Isles. Near relentless rain on Monday and Tuesday, more foggy murk yesterday and suicide-inducing stagnant grey nothingness, that wouldn't shift or break, today courtesy of an endless feed of filth of the North Sea while the Angus and Fife coasts had plenty of sunshine 🤬Wrist-slittingly awful does not even begin to describe this ordeal 😱

11 days into what should be the sunniest month of the year the daily sun average remains below a ludicrously awful 2 hours. Worse than last years horrendously wet November managed with half the available daylight. That stupidly wet November had 7 completely sunless days in its entirety. Today was the 8th out of 15 - more than any calendar month since December 2021 and catastrophically bad at a time of year when there are rarely more than 2 or 3 in an entire month 🤮

May 1983 was the worst May ever recorded by a wide margin. Such an outlier that there had been nothing like it in over 100 years previously. Yet here we are just 40 years on enduring something that is on a par if not even worse 🤯

May 1983 never had this ludicrous murky fog that extends well inland. Just a few days with mist. Temperatures were also nowhere near as repulsively mild at night with nothing like these hideous almost non-existent diurnal ranges.

This is much worse than anything ever expected in October and November yet there is not a chance in hell that those months would be capable of producing conditions as good as what we should be getting in May.

I have no energy. I feel tired and depressed constantly and it's an ordeal just to get out of bed in the morning. Heating has to be kept on all day every filthy, disgusting and demoralising day. 

2023 is just the biggest weather disaster in history 🤢🤮💩
Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
cultman1
12 May 2023 13:44:13
London today is perishingly cold at 11 degrees with brisk E wind and rain showers I really do wonder if there will be a pattern change anytime soon!
Retron
12 May 2023 14:15:46

London today is perishingly cold at 11 degrees with brisk E wind and rain showers I really do wonder if there will be a pattern change anytime soon!

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


There's been one today!
It's been warmer and drier than average here (40 miles east of London). It's nice to have a cold day for once.



 
Leysdown, north Kent
Tim A
12 May 2023 17:19:00
Poor day today, no rain but no sunshine either and cold.  Heating back on. 
I haven't really minded the last few days as at least it has been fairly warm and there has been some sunshine amongst the showers. 
 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Bolty
12 May 2023 17:36:21
I must have got quite lucky up here lately. Compared to March and April, so far May has been a vast improvement. There's been a lot more in the way of drier and brighter weather, and it's also felt decidedly warmer too. Yes, there's been some cool and showery days, but what May doesn't get those?

Interesting to see so many comments about it being a poor month, however.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Saint Snow
12 May 2023 19:02:42

I must have got quite lucky up here lately. Compared to March and April, so far May has been a vast improvement. There's been a lot more in the way of drier and brighter weather, and it's also felt decidedly warmer too. Yes, there's been some cool and showery days, but what May doesn't get those?

Interesting to see so many comments about it being a poor month, however.

Originally Posted by: Bolty 




I'd agree. 

March & April were poor, but May's felt middling. 

Also, whilst I know it doesn't work this way, I'd rather we got the crap & unsettled weather out the way before summer. 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Jiries
12 May 2023 19:08:13

I'd agree. 

March & April were poor, but May's felt middling. 

Also, whilst I know it doesn't work this way, I'd rather we got the crap & unsettled weather out the way before summer. 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Sadly does not work as crap weather will always strike in the summer months.  I already lost interest with this year due to shorter window of useable opportunity chances that we can use the garden from March onward.  Still not able to cut the grass and some are now 1m high.  I refused to cut the grass until I know it will not rain for weeks and high temperatures needed.  If I cut now with this horrible SSW set-up continuing, it will go back to 1m within few days to a week.  I want to cut when it dry so it become parched yellow and no growth for few weeks.
idj20
12 May 2023 20:48:19
The way things has been carrying on, I'm going to find it hard to tell when last Autumn had ended and when the next one is starting. 😂
Folkestone Harbour. 
Saint Snow
12 May 2023 23:51:50

Sadly does not work as crap weather will always strike in the summer months.  I already lost interest with this year due to shorter window of useable opportunity chances that we can use the garden from March onward.  Still not able to cut the grass and some are now 1m high.  I refused to cut the grass until I know it will not rain for weeks and high temperatures needed.  If I cut now with this horrible SSW set-up continuing, it will go back to 1m within few days to a week.  I want to cut when it dry so it become parched yellow and no growth for few weeks.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



1m? That's some incredible grass, George. 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Jiries
12 May 2023 23:54:44

1m? That's some incredible grass, George. 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Yes some area of grass are 1m and some as low 50cm. I will use a trimmer to cut down once SSW gone for good.
Retron
13 May 2023 04:39:09

1m? That's some incredible grass, George. 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


TBF I've got some seed-stalks in my grass (in the "wild" area) which are 1m high. The grass leaves are much lower though, more like 30-40cm high.

I've been mowing my lawn every two weeks since the end of March, mind you... down here it's been dry enough. I'll doubtless be doing it again next weekend too!
Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
13 May 2023 04:40:12

TBF I've got some seed-stalks in my grass (in the "wild" area) which are 1m high. The grass leaves are much lower though, more like 30-40cm high.

I've been mowing my lawn every two weeks since the end of March, mind you... down here it's been dry enough. I'll doubtless be doing it again next weekend too! (Edit: I don't like the look of yellow grass, even though it's usually inevitable down here later in the summer. At the moment it's all a lush green, so it's all good!)

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Leysdown, north Kent
cultman1
13 May 2023 16:13:45
Well the Met Office app got todays weather totally wrong it was meant to become sunny / sunny spells from mid to late morning and the day has yet again turned out cloudy with a cool NE wind and depressing temperatures of just 12 degrees for the London area . How can they get it so wrong?
johncs2016
13 May 2023 16:54:25

Well the Met Office app got todays weather totally wrong it was meant to become sunny / sunny spells from mid to late morning and the day has yet again turned out cloudy with a cool NE wind and depressing temperatures of just 12 degrees for the London area . How can they get it so wrong?

Originally Posted by: cultman1 



Maybe, you'd be better moving up here to Scotland as we've had a lovely day today with the temperature reaching around 19°C at Edinburgh Gogarbank with more than 10 hours of sunshine (as at 5pm this afternoon).

In addition to that, recent months have been nowhere near as wet up here as they have been down south.

P.S. This is a gloat from me (which this thread allows) rather than a moan.

 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Bolty
13 May 2023 17:22:34
There's certainly no moans from me today. An absolutely beautiful late spring day here with cloudless skies. Hopefully there's a lot more to come over the coming months!
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 

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