theweatheroutlook

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Russwirral
12 May 2023 11:27:19
Bbc weather have picked up on it and have reported pretty much what i was saying

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/65560104 

No warm days, the least in eng and wales since 1986.

But overall CET is average.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Retron
12 May 2023 12:02:53


Doesn't look notable to me even when compared to recent years. I suspect the perceptions are in large part due to the wet conditions and lack of sun.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


It's the old "think the UK is in the Med" syndrome, I think - seems people (in general) think it should always be warmer than the averages would imply. Even now, for example, the average high in July down here is 22.8C (91-20, East Malling), yet people seem to be disappointed if it's not 25-27 every day.



 
Leysdown, north Kent
mulattokid
12 May 2023 12:19:54
This is by far the worst spring I can remember overall.

It is not a question of 25 degrees of May.  It has not even reached 20c Anywhere near me, and we only have two weeks of May left....with no sign. 

Now that is very unusual. 
Located in West London

"Everything in life is our fault, but that's not our fault!"
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+1
Russwirral
12 May 2023 13:40:05
I think recent years weve grown used to emerging out of winter quite quickly and strongly with very little average spring weather to be had.

But the point that we havent had a 20c day yet and we are almost thru spring is highly unusual. A few years ago and i was climbing Tryfan in 20*c in late February!


Just a touch warmer here and its ideal weather if u ask me. Some heavy downpours to help the garden. The grass has loved the last week.
 

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Joe Bloggs
12 May 2023 22:29:33
Some hints (just hints) from the latest ECM and GFS operationals that some warmer, more settled weather could be on the cards in the medium range. 

Would be nice to see this trend maintained but it’s definitely a case of more runs needed. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
+1
picturesareme
12 May 2023 23:06:55
Honestly think 23C is a real possibility down here tomorrow (Saturday) with an early automatic forecast of 21C on the met office giving me more optimism. Also thinking there is a decent albeit an outside chance of somewhere hitting 24C tomorrow along the southern & southwestern coastlines. 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 May 2023 06:39:43
WX temps show Europe really warming up over the next two weeks. Week 1 is still cool over Britain and down to the Alps with warmer stuff nudging in from the east; week 2 temps jump 6-8C across most of W Europe, England just about joining in but Scotland still on the cool side. Rain heavy and located over Alps and Balkans in week 1; this area shrnking in week 2 and becoming mainly or very dry from Portugal up to Britain and across to the Baltic.

GFS Op - High pressure nudging up from the SW at first and becoming established over Scotland - Norway 1035mb Wed 24th, declining but still covering Britain 1020mb Mon 29th. Occasional incursions of shallow LP during this time, e.g. Denmark Tue 16th, English Channel Sun 21st.

ECM - similar to GFS; LP over France a little closer with E-ly winds stronger and more persistent

GEFS - cool around Tue 16th, becoming warm or v warm by Wed 24th and so continuing. Trivial amounts of rain, and that mostly near W coasts later on.

NOTE: this review will not appear tomorrow (Sunday) as I am organising a national orienteering event. Back on Monday.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Rob K
13 May 2023 14:23:31

Year Mar, Apr, May
2015 6.5, 9.1, 10.8
2016 5.8, 7.5, 12.6
2017 8.8, 9.0, 13.3
2018 5.0, 9.9, 13.3
2019 7.9, 9.2, 11.2
2020 6.8, 10.5, 12.5
2021 7.3, 6.5, 10.2
2022 8.0, 9.2, 13.1
2023 7.0 8.7 12.5

Doesn't look notable to me even when compared to recent years. I suspect the perceptions are in large part due to the wet conditions and lack of sun.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



I expected to see the Maximum CET showing a colder picture, compensated for by warmer minima, but that seems not to be the case either.


Maximum Central England Temperature, 2023

Month CET Anomaly
January 8.4 2.0
February 10.0 3.4
March 10.2 1.1
April 13.0 1.1
May 16.3 0.7 provisional to the 12th

We just haven't had much contrast - not many really cold days or really warm days. Just lots of dull and fairly average days 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
doctormog
13 May 2023 14:48:50

I expected to see the Maximum CET showing a colder picture, compensated for by warmer minima, but that seems not to be the case either.


Maximum Central England Temperature, 2023

Month CET Anomaly
January 8.4 2.0
February 10.0 3.4
March 10.2 1.1
April 13.0 1.1
May 16.3 0.7 provisional to the 12th

We just haven't had much contrast - not many really cold days or really warm days. Just lots of dull and fairly average days 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



On that latter point until today (which is much better) there had been 9 hours of sunshine here so far this month.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
CField
14 May 2023 09:02:33
Flooding in Spain and France may the headlines in a week or two if the outlook is correct
 
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Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
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GezM
  • GezM
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14 May 2023 09:36:46

Flooding in Spain and France may the headlines in a week or two if the outlook is correct
 

Originally Posted by: CField 


After Italy and Croatia this week. France needs the rain and Spain is desperate for it, see chart link. So for all our sakes I hope the rain naffs off and heads south for a while ....

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/soil4 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Ally Pally Snowman
14 May 2023 19:17:05
Pretty decent set of 12s this evening.  High pressure building in strongly on most output. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Zubzero
14 May 2023 19:47:22

Pretty decent set of 12s this evening.  High pressure building in strongly on most output. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Yep a much more settled outlook and no real heat showing in any of the ens with low 20s showing, witch imby is perfect summer weather. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=303&y=95&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1 
 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
15 May 2023 06:56:54
WX temp chart warming up from warm to very warm in E Europe, and from cool to warm in W Europe, the latter not quite reaching Britain which simply stays mild (though late yesterday the charts showed that at least England was warmer). Areas of heavy rain over the Adriatic in week 1, extending to most of S Europe in week 2 while Britain is in a dry slot throughout.

GFS Op - HP moving in strongly from the SW - 1030mb Cornwall Wed 17th - and continuing as a broad ridge from Atlantic to Norway for the next two weeks, albeit this ridge sometimes weakening to leave Britain in a col between these two main centres, this happening for a day or two around Tue 23rd and again, more generally Wed 31st.

ECM - very much like GFS

GEFS - temps rising steadily from cool (4 or 5C below norm) now, to norm by Sun 21st with good ens agreement, and continuing to increase in England esp the SE after than but with a wider spread of outcomes (there are a number of cool outliers). The profile for Scotland interrupts the progress to warmer weather with a dip around Wed 24th. Small amounts of intermittent rain, perhaps a little more in the NW later on. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Charmhills
15 May 2023 09:57:34
Some pleasant weather around the comer for most for the next 10 days possibly.☀
Loughborough, EM.

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Duane.
Saint Snow
15 May 2023 10:38:22
Not that enamoured with the positioning of the high pressure. I'd preferred the charts from a few days ago suggesting a high just to the north of the UK bringing in some great easterlies.

 

Martin
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Taylor1740
15 May 2023 12:36:57
I get the feeling the pattern is switching now from the poor spring into a warm and pleasant summer. Could be a long and hot one if so perhaps similar to 1976.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
+1
Nick Gilly
15 May 2023 16:51:59
Bear in mind though that if the summer 1976 synoptics happened now it would be considerably hotter. I'd imagine 37-39C would be breached several times, and maybe even 40C. We don't need weeks of dry ground and a gradual build-up to get temperatures of >35C these days.
Gandalf The White
15 May 2023 19:21:34

Bear in mind though that if the summer 1976 synoptics happened now it would be considerably hotter. I'd imagine 37-39C would be breached several times, and maybe even 40C. We don't need weeks of dry ground and a gradual build-up to get temperatures of >35C these days.

Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly 



In danger of drifting off topic but I agree, in fact almost half a century on I think we’d be hitting 40c a few times and quite likely breaking records again.  No thanks.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Jiries
16 May 2023 06:45:17

In danger of drifting off topic but I agree, in fact almost half a century on I think we’d be hitting 40c a few times and quite likely breaking records again.  No thanks.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



No thanks either dont like heat spikes as it generate overcast weeks before and after a hot single sunny day.   Preferably like 1989, 1990, 1995, 2003, 2006 and 2018 with stable weeks of sunny weather and 25C to 34C than cold 16 to 19C then 35C over for a few hours wonder follow by 16 to 19C days.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
16 May 2023 07:12:29
WX charts shifting the approach of warmer weather into Europe day by day; week 1 warmer from the east as far as Germany but Britain and France still on the cool side; week 2 a pulse of really warm weather from the south covering France and spilling over into Britain and Denmark while however being compensated for by a N-ly plunge through the Baltic States and Belarus. Very wet over the Tyrrhenian and Adriatic in week 1; this shifting east to leave a large very dry area over NW Europe in week 2.

GFS Op - HP pushing up from the SW to form a broad ridge from mid-Atlantic to Norway by Fri 19th, LP through the Med.. The ridge splits to leave Britain in a col Sun 21st. So far much as yesterday, but a change for the following week as the HP on the Atlantic moves closer and intensifies covering Britain Sat 27th. This shifts a little E-wards, promising warmth from the south, but returns for Thu 1st. The N-ly plunge referred to above is of coure the E side of this HP cell.

ECM - less favourable than GFS later on. The col  from Sun 21st becomes a shallow trough of low pressure from Iceland to the Alps Tue 23rd, and LP 990mb NE Iceland Fri 26th prevents HP from doing more than getting close to W Ireland, by no means covering Britain and cool NW-lies promised.

GEFS - becoming steadily warmer to a peak 2 or 3C above norm Tue 23rd with good ens agreement. Then ens members diverge, the mean dropping to norm but rising again later; op promising a heatwave (10C above norm Sun 28th), control being miserable (7c below norm Thu 25th). Very dry; just one or two runs picking up anomalously large amounts on isolated days.

 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Gandalf The White
16 May 2023 07:53:37

No thanks either dont like heat spikes as it generate overcast weeks before and after a hot single sunny day.   Preferably like 1989, 1990, 1995, 2003, 2006 and 2018 with stable weeks of sunny weather and 25C to 34C than cold 16 to 19C then 35C over for a few hours wonder follow by 16 to 19C days.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



I think that’s a pretty inaccurate view, Jiries.  Heat is as likely to build up through a succession of dry, sunny days, with a gentle southerly flow. As others have said, the lack of rainfall contributes to the heat since energy isn’t being used to evaporate the moisture.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Ally Pally Snowman
16 May 2023 11:27:35
Looking fairly settled now and we do seem to be inching our way to a warm spell. But it's like pulling teeth getting there.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Chunky Pea
16 May 2023 17:07:58
Canadian wildfire smoke becoming noticeable in the skies over the NW region of Europe now. Certainly here in Ireland now at the moment (what should be blue on this fair weather low humidity day is now a yellowish white) and this smoke likely to stick around for a few days:

UserPostedImage
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
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NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
17 May 2023 07:21:21

Looking fairly settled now and we do seem to be inching our way to a warm spell. But it's like pulling teeth getting there.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Maybe. Perhaps we are slowly entering a dry spell Retron Style. The lack of reports of flooded cricket fields concerns me too.
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft

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