Well sadly, one thing is certain. It is going to be a very.... very short summer.  It does not even feel like we have advanced beyond early April.

Most of us rely on titbits of summer weather in the Spring and that almost never fails.  This year, it has failed, and how!

The least amount of warm days since 1985 and 6 reminds me of the dreadful  summers of 1985/6. 

Part of me wants to believe that the slowed Jet stream will stick us in a southerly wind for the next three months , but I have lost hope to be honest.

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Well the ECM 12z sticks mostly to its guns. High pressure slap bang over the UK for most of the run. Warm sunny Bank holiday weekend for most.
 

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Be helpful if you could note your location in your signature, matey. 

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If you check his details he’s in London.

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850s temps for my area for Bank holiday 29th.

GEM   12c
UKMO  -4c
GFS      3c.

So expect anything from Winter Summer or Spring lol.
UKMO is ridiculously cold.
 

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WX temp charts very disappointing. The promised warmth across W Europe has gone from the charts; not only is the cool/cold patch from Norway south to Germany still present in week 1 but this then moves westward to include France and Britain. It is followed by something warmer but this only reaches Finland and Poland in week 2, and the general warm-up from the south is missing. At least Britain is very dry for week 1 (incl BH) with the persistent band of rain from Spain to Turkey and northwards to W Russia; then in week 2 it's still in the Med but the rain in Russia moves westwards and begins to affect Britain.

GFS Op - HP moving up from the SW to peak 1035mb Fri 26th over Britain; persisting but moving to just W of Scotland leaving Britain in a light N-ly drift while LP moves S over Scandinavia 1005 mb Denmark Wed 31st. This LP then nudges closer to Britain while pressure rises behind it and by Tue 6th is 1010mb S Scotland with its own small cold pool, and HP centred well to SW and NE.

ECM - resembles GFS but as yesterday keeps the LP a bit further E over Scandinavia, affecting Britain less.

GEFS - a brief spell of warmer weather for the BH weekend (more up-and-down in W & NW) but after that, unlike yesterday, the mean is no better than close to seasonal norm (a little better in Scotland), albeit dragged down by op & control runs - there are quite a number of warmer end members. Some rain from the beginning of June onwards, driest in far NE.

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ECM still holding firm stunning run this morning. Warm air stays over the UK until day 10.
 

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I've assumed somewhere near Aberdeen as it's certainly no location near me

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GFS 6z is stupidly cold. Frosty Bank holiday. Max of 11c for many. So different to ECM. Something has to give soon.
 

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Indeed.

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Thanks.  Will try and amend that.

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Frosty mean sunny warm days ahead so 11C not possible with high sun position.   Apps still going for low 20's but still very poor for May normally max warmest at 27-28c.

ECM and GFS couldnt be further apart for the Bank holiday. ECM has 10c 850s GFS has -5c.
Madness 

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ECM likely to be correct because many times GFS over does the temperatures and charts that never came off.  Need to see this back down otherwise if not then is a serious worry that might give June a cold start and poor summer commence.  Horrible SSW had not left us yet only gone when temperatures had finally hit 25C and become regularly.  We seeing 20-21cmost available warmth lately from the sun home grown warmth while under the SSW reign.

Things don't seem to be shaping up very well atm. I'm saying no more. 😟

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Things look quite rosy for us down here in the West country for the forseeable, especially if we can avoid that cold plunge performing a nasty trick early next week.  UK location certainly does make a massive different to perspective in this set up.  Nice 22C here yesterday, wonderful.  it does not have to be scorching the skin of of the flesh and I am very happy that we have not got those grim days of chill, wet and bluster that can so often taint the beauty at this time of year.
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The GFS 6z is quite different (in terms of conditions 'on the ground') from its own 0z.

Looking at Monday afternoon, the 0z showed 2m temps away from the east & much of the SE to be 15-18c (11-13 in the E & much of the SE). All areas dry.

The 6z knocks these down by a degree or two in the E/SE and 2-4c in other areas (although the Central Belt still achieves 16-17c) and wet in the SE.

ECM of course keeps the high over us and a lovely long weekend. Met Office have a solution between the two (dry and more influenced by the High than GFS 6z, but still allowing cold air over the UK)

All to do with how far east the influence of the High is. A lot of that is dictated by the development and track of a low that spawns off Greenland over the next day or so.

GFS 6z - has it moving to sit over the Norwegian coast where it gradually fills whilst expanding southwards slightly, but not before displacing the high westwards and driving a northerly cold shot over the UK

ECM 0z - tracks that initial low well to the north (over Svalbard). A secondary low develops, but ECM also keep this to the north before it settles over the north of Scandinavia and doesn't impact the UK.

Met Office 0z - Very similar evolution to ECM in having the initial low track north over Svalbard then developing a 2nd low. This time, though, it tracks it further south to settle over mid-Scandinavia. This advects a real cold flow westwards under the high (which centres a little further north)

GEM is the pick of the bunch for the whole weekend, mind. Temps widely 22-24c Sunday, 24-26c Monday.





 

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Meto video on Youtube stating a 20% chance of colder air over the weekend.

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12s seem to be a step in the right direction.  Especially the UKMO which is much better/warmer. 
 

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BBC Weather For The Week Ahead still sticking with a fine & warm Bank Holiday weekend, and suggested the high would continue into next week too.

Possibly for the West Country an areas clised to the HP  but the MO app still showing cool windy North Easterly winds at least for the South East especially for bank holiday Monday 

BBC still showing a very nice outlook for us in Central Southern England all the way out through to the end of next week, 21c on Monday. MO has a much lower temp of 16c for Monday so obviously all to play for and probably fine margins, as always.

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Not bad output this morning.  But we still cant hit 25c. Constant easterlies capping the temps especially in  the East. Low 20s at best for the next week or so.

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WX charts (based AFAIK on GFS Op) have had no consistency recently! Anyway after a cool outlook yesterday, warmth is back in week 2. First, wait for something a little cooler than norm to clear from the area from France up to Norway including Britain in week 1, before seeing much warmer conditions spread across the near continent as far as Poland. England and Ireland get the benefit on the edge of this, Scotland less so. For cooler weather go to Finland and Russia which were shown as becoming warm yesterday! Dry in week 1 from Scotland to Baltic, patchy rain across S Europe from Spain to Ukraine, the rain intensifying in this area (a miserable late Spring there) while becoming very dry for Britain (exc Cornwall) and Scandinavia.

GFS Op - HP moving up from the SW and covering all of Britain 1030mb Sat 27th drifting N to form a large area of HP between Iceland and Scotland and staying there until Wed 7th; some E/NE-lies for S England, particularly strong on Wed 31st with LP in Biscay. After the 7th the HP breaks down and moves W-wards leaving Britain in slack though still fairly high pressure. Yesterday's projection of LP moving S through Scandinavia has disappeared.

ECM - similar to GFS but with the HP closer to or over Scotland. The last frame suggests an earlier breakdown of HP with the centre drifting towards Greenland on Sat 3rd.

GEFS - temps near or a little above norm at first, but a sharp dip Tue/Wed 30th/31st after which 2-3C above norm well into June, cooling a little at the end. Some chances of a little rain about Thu 1st and from Mon 5th onwards. (more generally from Thu 1st  in SW, minimal in NE)

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Looks alright to me, anywhere 30-40 miles inland from the east coast will see 22-23c during the day and sunshine, what is not to like.

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