theweatheroutlook

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moomin75
27 May 2023 07:17:13

Only the GFS really going for a northerly.  Other models continue the theme of high pressure but never in a position to produce any heat.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Agree, but TBH, the temperatures are just about perfect. Not too hot, not too cold, just right.
Not that it will, but if it stayed like this all summer, it would be sheer perfection. 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
+3
Saint Snow
27 May 2023 08:29:05

Agree, but TBH, the temperatures are just about perfect. Not too hot, not too cold, just right.
Not that it will, but if it stayed like this all summer, it would be sheer perfection. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



I'd prefer it to get to mid-/late-20's as we moved through July into August. I view 25c+ as 'beach weather' 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Jiries
27 May 2023 08:41:25

Only the GFS really going for a northerly.  Other models continue the theme of high pressure but never in a position to produce any heat.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Seem that hopeless HP cannot or want to move east easily like in the past which give us more variety of weather, temps and more sunshine amount. Low 20's under home grown warmth for this time of the year with lot of sunshine to come.  
UncleAlbert
27 May 2023 09:00:05

Agree, but TBH, the temperatures are just about perfect. Not too hot, not too cold, just right.
Not that it will, but if it stayed like this all summer, it would be sheer perfection. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Yes, those of us who live in the favoured locations for this type of set up should at the least be reasonably happy.  Rather irritating at times for easterners though, I would imagine.
 
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
27 May 2023 10:03:08

Seem that hopeless HP cannot or want to move east easily like in the past which give us more variety of weather, temps and more sunshine amount. Low 20's under home grown warmth for this time of the year with lot of sunshine to come.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



I was thinking the same. Retrogressing anticyclones tend to be a characteristic of British springs but this year is more extreme. The jet stream seems to either die totally these days or be in full blast mode. Not much in-between. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
28 May 2023 07:05:58
WX charts  much as yesterday settling down with fairly warm weather for continental Europe after a week 1 cold patch around Poland. By week 2 there is a dividing line running along the coast from Brittany to the Baltic, warmer to the south, cooler to the north with N Norway and Iceland still very much cold  though perhaps some of that Scandinavian coldness leaking out to Poland. Very dry in week 1 for Britain and other countries bordering the N Sea, some rain in most other places; in week 2 the rain peps up in N Spain, France and the Alps, and today there is also some in week 2 for C England, and separately quite widely for W Russia.

GFS Op - HP for Britain peaking over NW Scotland Tue 30th, slowly moving NW-wards and allowing a N/NE-ly drift affecting E/SE areas by Mon 5th. This trend continues for the following week, though with a weakening pressure gradient and the HP getting to mid-Atlantic. Then LP over France getting closer by Mon 12th.

ECM - similar to GFS but from Sun 4th brings the HP back from the N Atlantic so less of a N/NE-ly drift, and probably drier too.

GEFS - warmest around Fri 2nd though not remarkably so, then steadily  declining to seasonal norm by about Wed 5th, and staying there (or a bit cooler in the E), with quite good agreement from ens members. Significant chances of rain from some ens members after Fri 7th in the W or Sat 12th in the E, dry until then.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
David M Porter
28 May 2023 09:04:01

Agree, but TBH, the temperatures are just about perfect. Not too hot, not too cold, just right.
Not that it will, but if it stayed like this all summer, it would be sheer perfection. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



I agree 100%, Kieren. 👍
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Ally Pally Snowman
28 May 2023 10:28:24
Bramham in Yorkshire got to 24.3c yesterday.  We could hit 25c today somewhere in the SW.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Bolty
28 May 2023 13:15:38
Still no sign of any real breakdown or return to the Atlantic on the 6Z. If it holds, it's looking like this will turn into a very significant dry and settled spell. Early signs of a notably dry June this year (or at least first half of it)?

Hopefully it is a sign of a nice warm and blocked summer ahead...
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
+1
NCross
28 May 2023 19:07:34
Looking like 1995 , best summer ever
 
Rob K
28 May 2023 22:17:02

Looking like 1995 , best summer ever
 

Originally Posted by: NCross 


Certainly was, I was 18, music was great, beer was cheap, the sun never stopped shining.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
29 May 2023 07:06:40
Wx charts changing somewhat since yesterday. In week 1 the picture for warmth across W Europe ia scaled back a little but much more so around the Baltic States up to N Norway. Then in week 2 much of C Europe esp the mountain areas is looking quite cool but warmth pushes N from Spain to reach Britain from the SW; N Scotland still on the cool side. Very dry in week 1 from Britain across to the Baltic, with some rain in most other areas. In week 2 the dry area moves N-wards, England still just about dry but N-wards up to Iceland very dry. Rain across S Europe concentrated on Hungary and Romania.

GFs Op - the HP which has been with us for some time is shown as more persistent than it has been, settled close to N Scotland through to Mon 12th with E/NE-lies for the south becoming E/SE-lies with time. Twin centres of LP more or less static; off Spain hence warmth for the SW above; and near Hungary hence the rainfall pattern above. After the 12th these twin centres of LP coalesce over Denmark and the HP has retrogressed to Greenland with cool feed of Arctic air from Svalbard for Britain by Wed 14th, too late to affect the WX averages above.

ECM - matches GFS to Sun 4th, but then the HP becomes a broad elongated area from mid-Atlantic to Norway with more of a SE-ly influence for the south. In the final frame, Thu 8th, the HP begins to break up as LP approaches from the SW (off Spain) and NW (off Iceland); the LP over Hungary is not a significant feature in this model.

GEFS - temps warm for the first few days then close to norm throughout (more of a spread in ens members in the N, chances of a little rain after Wed 7th perhaps more likely in SW.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
The Beast from the East
29 May 2023 08:50:10

Certainly was, I was 18, music was great, beer was cheap, the sun never stopped shining.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Same age as me! Just left school, getting ready for uni, didnt do the gap yaar thing. Great summer of "discovery". I remember the heat continued right up to the VE Day celebrations at the end of August
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
David M Porter
29 May 2023 08:50:28

Looking like 1995 , best summer ever
 

Originally Posted by: NCross 



Totally agree with that. Aside from a couple of storms in mid-July and then a shortlived more unsettled spell for a week or so afterwards, the heat and sun lasted from the time of the summer solstice until late August. For me, only 2006 and 2018 come close to matching it in terms of duration of the fine weather.

Models look great at the moment, and the current pattern reminds me a lot of this time in 2018, only not as warm as it was then.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
The Beast from the East
29 May 2023 08:52:54

I'd prefer it to get to mid-/late-20's as we moved through July into August. I view 25c+ as 'beach weather' 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



It needs to be warm enough for bikinis and sunbathing in the park, unfortunately the cold breeze at the moment is preventing that and spoiling my viewing pleasure
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
29 May 2023 09:01:36

Same age as me! Just left school, getting ready for uni, didnt do the gap yaar thing. Great summer of "discovery". I remember the heat continued right up to the VE Day celebrations at the end of August
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



VE Day was in May. Do you mean VJ Day?
Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
The Beast from the East
29 May 2023 09:29:00

VE Day was in May. Do you mean VJ Day?

Originally Posted by: Col 



Yes, the one at the end of August. There was a huge thing in London with fireworks etc, marking the 50th anniversary of the end of the war
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Saint Snow
29 May 2023 09:51:12

 
Models look great at the moment, and the current pattern reminds me a lot of this time in 2018, only not as warm as it was then.

David M Porter wrote:



I've also noticed a passing resemblance. 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Chunky Pea
29 May 2023 10:01:05
I'm thinking more 2010 (or maybe it was 2011) . It was very dry and sunny and with winds frequently from north to east.
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
RennesCJH
29 May 2023 10:09:08
Looking like 1995 , best summer ever

Naah, that would be 1959!
ChrisH
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
29 May 2023 10:49:29

Same age as me! Just left school, getting ready for uni, didnt do the gap yaar thing. Great summer of "discovery". I remember the heat continued right up to the VE Day celebrations at the end of August
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



I remember a sunny but cool day for a VE day children's party - in 1945. Probably a couple of weeks after the actual event.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
moomin75
29 May 2023 11:51:41
Hmm. The pattern on the GFS 6Z has a bit of a summer 2022 vibe about it. Lows becoming cut off around Biscay with High pressure cells over and then drifting East of the UK.
There is currently no real heat to tap into from the south because of the wet spell down there, BUT, if this pattern can rinse and repeat, we may see some interesting weather again this summer - perhaps some volatility too - but plenty of interest in my opinion. 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
cultman1
29 May 2023 12:02:01
Yes agree Moomin I am beginning to wonder though at least for the next 1-3 weeks whether we will come out of these rather cool and gusty NE winds in the south . 
Ally Pally Snowman
29 May 2023 12:07:22

Hmm. The pattern on the GFS 6Z has a bit of a summer 2022 vibe about it. Lows becoming cut off around Biscay with High pressure cells over and then drifting East of the UK.
There is currently no real heat to tap into from the south because of the wet spell down there, BUT, if this pattern can rinse and repeat, we may see some interesting weather again this summer - perhaps some volatility too - but plenty of interest in my opinion. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



A thundery humid summer is something I'd certainly be up for. Some of the teleconnection experts seem to think this is likely this summer. We will see.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
29 May 2023 12:35:15

A thundery humid summer is something I'd certainly be up for. Some of the teleconnection experts seem to think this is likely this summer. We will see.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Not really a fan of humid. Would prefer fresher dry/sunny, even if temps are subdued down to early-/mid-20s.



​​​​

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

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