theweatheroutlook

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
29 May 2023 12:40:49
New kid on the block?

From Saturday's Times, 
AI set to take world of weather forecasting by storm
relating to an AI forecasting system essentially using pattern matching rather than physics calculations. But it's pattern matching on the grand scale with 30,000TB of data. Its devisors, Atmo, claim it's faster (so as to run many more ensemble forecasts), cheaper, and hyper-local (they have a product for medium range in San Francisco which does 300m x 300m). 

But they admit that 10-14 days is still a practical limit.

The firm
https://www.atmo.ai/ 

A sample output from the 'Global Forecast' menu in the above (it animates)
https://earth.atmo.ai/[email protected],-0.32290,2.45,0,0,1685363437 
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
29 May 2023 13:02:47

Not really a fan of humid. Would prefer fresher dry/sunny, even if temps are subdued down to early-/mid-20s.

​​​​

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Ideal for me would be 28c to 32c thunderstorms in the evening.  Very rare recently. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Tom Oxon
29 May 2023 23:13:29

Hmm. The pattern on the GFS 6Z has a bit of a summer 2022 vibe about it. Lows becoming cut off around Biscay with High pressure cells over and then drifting East of the UK.
There is currently no real heat to tap into from the south because of the wet spell down there, BUT, if this pattern can rinse and repeat, we may see some interesting weather again this summer - perhaps some volatility too - but plenty of interest in my opinion. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



This could age incredibly poorly, but another few  weeks of this spell and I think a repeat of 40C here again is off the table, they really were a special set of circumstances that brought it about, in no small part due to the bone dry ground south of us (and for that matter locally here).
S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
30 May 2023 07:05:29
WX charts for week 1 much like yesterday's with reasonably warm weather across NW Europe but a cold plunge from Norway (even a small blob of 'blue' there) down to N Ukraine. Then a big change in week 2 with the cold area becoming restricted to a small pool in W Russia and a few mountainous areas further south while the rest of Europe becomes warm,  even hot in Spain, France, N Germany and S Sweden. (but a quick look last night showed at that stage a more restrained spread of warmth). In week 1 dry for Iceland down to Britain and NW Europe; week 2 dry for Denmark and the Baltic; rain for areas (incl Britain week 2) circling these dry places.

GFS Op - the current HP sticks around near or over Scotland, occasionally ridging W to the Atlantic, until Wed 7th, when it moves east to Norway allowing LP to move N-wards just W of Ireland bringing warmth from the south. The HP then re-asserts itself from Sat 10th, forming a broad ridge from Norway via Britain to the Azores through to Thu 15th. Retrogression of HP to Greenland, a feature of charts for the last week or so, has disappeared.

ECM - like GFS until Wed 7th but after that keeps the HP in place over Scotland and near Atlantic; no sign of any LP near Britain.

GEFS -  mean temp close to or a little above norm through to Thu 15th (op and control marginally higher than mean, more of a spread of outcomes in the N), some ens members with a little rain after Wed 7th (just one or two with a big spike in the E)
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
30 May 2023 08:03:56
The persistent North East Atlantic anticyclone that is impacting our weather is also providing half term sunseekers with heavy showers pretty much all the way across the Med from Spain to Turkey. It is also preventing the advection of North African hot air into southern Europe. There are continued signs that from around June 8th, the anticyclone weakens and drifts south east. At the same time slack low pressure develops west of Portugal allowing more of a southerly drift. For the UK this looks like introducing warm, humid air with some showers.  

BTW, if you want guaranteed sunshine and warmth outside the UK this week then south east Iceland is a good place to be. Vallanes looks quite sunny with temperatures close to 20C. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Roger Parsons
30 May 2023 08:43:47

BTW, if you want guaranteed sunshine and warmth outside the UK this week then south east Iceland is a good place to be. Vallanes looks quite sunny with temperatures close to 20C. 

Originally Posted by: GezM 

Likely to be a good midge year then? June is the usual kick off.
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
moomin75
30 May 2023 09:33:41

This could age incredibly poorly, but another few  weeks of this spell and I think a repeat of 40C here again is off the table, they really were a special set of circumstances that brought it about, in no small part due to the bone dry ground south of us (and for that matter locally here).

Originally Posted by: Tom Oxon 


Oh I don't think 40c is remotely possible again this year, because of how cool and wet it is in the Med.
​
That, coupled with our cool wet spring suggests we won't get anywhere near that this year - that was an exception. 

But, the pattern *could* be similar and bring us some hot spells again this summer.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Russwirral
30 May 2023 10:03:40

This could age incredibly poorly, but another few  weeks of this spell and I think a repeat of 40C here again is off the table, they really were a special set of circumstances that brought it about, in no small part due to the bone dry ground south of us (and for that matter locally here).

Originally Posted by: Tom Oxon 



Yeh I think youre right - as others have alluded to, there was a sequence of one off - pre-requisite loading that happened through spring in western Europe, with France doing very well out of the blocks for heat early on.   The lack of that this year says to me - we will be lucky with just a couple of plumes, and temps getting no higher than the usual 35*C around London, and low 30s everywhere else.

TBH - i thought back in April we were destined for another hot summer as Spain seemed to have this extraordinary record breaking hot spell ( i was over there enjoying the heat at the time).  I thought this might have been another loading event, but it suddenly flat lined, and the heat has struggled to get above low/average temps, with plenty of rain.  Quite refreshing to see it is possible to have a summer of below average temps given every annomally chart for the past 2 decades feels like its been permanently orange/red

I think as the pressure patterns shift, theres a good chance of thundery weather as it seems currently that troughs are really happy to setup over the med, and there is an apparant lack of solid HP over the continent.  a slight shift here or there and Humid weather will start to move north. you can kinda see that happening on todays runs


The last good Thundery year was Covid year I think. June 2020.  Had hardly any last year.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Ally Pally Snowman
30 May 2023 16:23:16
Pleasant when its sunny this pattern but depressing when cloudy like today. Looks like we have at least 7 to 10 more days of this pattern though. The humid southerlies cant come soon enough. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
LeedsLad123
30 May 2023 16:52:31
This current pattern really isn’t great for many of us - high pressure is in the wrong place so most of England is plagued by North Sea crud, although it did clear here by around 1pm and it’s turned into a pleasant afternoon in Leeds. 

Great for western areas though, and it’s no surprise parts of Wales and Scotland in particular usually get their best weather at this time of year. 
 
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
30 May 2023 17:19:44
Predicting cloud amounts seems to be incredibly difficult for the Pros . So the next week is a bit of a lottery here. I'd take 5 sunny days out of the next 7. West looks great though even some decent warmth today. First 25c of the year.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
cultman1
30 May 2023 17:50:45
I think the East/South East  will continue with largely grey cloudy skies couple with cool temperatures until the High Pressure finally shifts it’s location
+2
Jiries
31 May 2023 07:02:48

I think the East/South East  will continue with largely grey cloudy skies couple with cool temperatures until the High Pressure finally shifts it’s location

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


 
HP in the past always move east but recently always refused to move east for some purpose reason and prefer to sit in the NE Atlantic.  To my book it been very unsettled all the time with gale force cold winds and cloudy weather with pointless late sunny times.  No models put rain shower today? There some sprinkling of rain shower this morning and look very unsettled.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
31 May 2023 07:10:44
WX charts offering summer to selected areas. The current cool dip (not well-defined enough to qualify as a plunge) over E Scandinavia and W Russia  spreads out in week 2 to cover an area from Austria all the way across to Siberia (yesterday's chart showed it as a relatively small coool pool). For Britain the good news is that heat in Spain spreads N-wards in week 2, France becoming hot and the warmth travelling on to Britain (possibly excepting N Scotland) and Denmark. In week 1 a very dry area affecting Iceland down to NW Europe incl Britain, this in week 2 moving further E to lie from the N Sea to the Baltic. The persistent belt of rain along the N shores of the Med (it's been there for weeks!) shows no sign of shifting and indeed become broader and more intense in week 2.

GFS Op - HP sticking around near N Scotland and LP in the Med with E-lies for England until Sun 11th when retrogression is back on the menu after being left out yesterday, and the HP departs for Greenland. On Wed 14th Britain is in a no-man's-land of slack pressure before on Fri 16th sitting between areas of LP to W and E, the former being closer with S-lies for most.

ECM - starts the retrogression on Thu 8th with a more definite N/NE-ly for all by Sat 10th. LP in the Med is unaffected.

GEFS - temps mostly a couple of degrees above norm, a couple of spells (around Sun 4th and Wed 14th) when back to norm, chances of rain in some ens members from Thu 8th, most likely in SW.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Ally Pally Snowman
31 May 2023 07:44:06

HP in the past always move east but recently always refused to move east for some purpose reason and prefer to sit in the NE Atlantic.  To my book it been very unsettled all the time with gale force cold winds and cloudy weather with pointless late sunny times.  No models put rain shower today? There some sprinkling of rain shower this morning and look very unsettled.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



I think today will be a overcast grim day for many not just in the East . The North Sea is a cloud making machine atm. From tomorrow though hopefully there should be less cloud especially for Central areas, as we get more of a northerly rather than a north easterly.
Fingers crossed. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
31 May 2023 09:44:24

I think today will be a overcast grim day for many not just in the East . The North Sea is a cloud making machine atm. From tomorrow though hopefully there should be less cloud especially for Central areas, as we get more of a northerly rather than a north easterly.
Fingers crossed. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



It is. 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
overland
31 May 2023 12:13:03
It's clearly been west is best for the last few weeks as the weather has been stunning here. Not too hot and often with a gin clear blue sky and this looks set to continue. I noticed that the BBC tweeted a list of places without rain and Swansea was top with the last rain falling on 8 May.
Mumbles, Swansea. 80m asl
+1
scillydave
31 May 2023 12:16:49
It's been a glorious spell of weather hasn't it?! 
Day after day of sunshine from dawn until dusk and pleasantly warm rather than too hot. Probably the best spell of weather I can remember for years.
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
Russwirral
31 May 2023 16:23:36

It's been a glorious spell of weather hasn't it?! 
Day after day of sunshine from dawn until dusk and pleasantly warm rather than too hot. Probably the best spell of weather I can remember for years.

Originally Posted by: scillydave 



Weve had many a recent year just like this.  Starting with 2020 when we were in lock down, May and June were glorious before an extended Thundery breakdown (something im keen to see a repeat of) June 2022 was equally decent.  Prolonged dry sunny spells.

This month has been brilliant for my solar panels.  Exported about 450kwhs

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
ballamar
31 May 2023 18:45:30
Look away if you want a cooler summer from the GFS 12z. Spain getting very hot
Jiries
31 May 2023 19:47:46

Look away if you want a cooler summer from the GFS 12z. Spain getting very hot

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



We need this HP to sod off to let the heat in Spain to reach here, last time the heat in April failed to turn up due to HP blocking it and kept us in cold, wet and dull.
Saint Snow
31 May 2023 20:06:25

Weve had many a recent year just like this.  Starting with 2020 when we were in lock down, May and June were glorious before an extended Thundery breakdown (something im keen to see a repeat of) June 2022 was equally decent.  Prolonged dry sunny spells.

This month has been brilliant for my solar panels.  Exported about 450kwhs

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 




May, June and just into July 2018 was the daddy of 'west is best'. After that, it was the SE that has the best of it (although still fine here) 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
01 June 2023 07:02:48
WX charts show the cool area over Scandinavia and the Baltic States (even freezing in N Norway) pulling away NE-wards, and W Europe becoming warmer in week 2, even hot in France and Spain with England and Ireland also distinctly warm; not so much Scotland. Very dry in week 1 from Britain to Poland, in week 2 this area reduced in size to N Sea to S Baltic with something from the Atlantic approaching Scotland. The  N Med , Alps and Balkans especially, continuing to endure downpours.

GFS Op - HP over Scotland or just to the NW dominating until Fri 9th then withdrawing N-wards and allowing shallow LPs to drift N from France to Wed 14th affecting mainly England. As the HP declines, LP develops S of Iceland, brushing past NW Scotland also Wed 14th to a position NE of Iceland with a large shallow trough extending S over Britain and France. Other LP areas coming and going over the Med and N Russia.

ECM - similar to GFS though the HP moves NW to Greenland rather than an overall decline; a distinction without a difference as far as Britain is affected

GEFS - temps a degree or two above norm to Fri 9th (maybe local exceptions on E coast) with good agreement of ens members; then more spread but most settle on close to norm to Sat 16th. Spots of rain in a few ens members from Wed 7th, more likely but still not common around Tue 13th in the S, two or three days later in Scotland esp the NW
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
David M Porter
01 June 2023 08:18:20

Pleasant when its sunny this pattern but depressing when cloudy like today. Looks like we have at least 7 to 10 more days of this pattern though. The humid southerlies cant come soon enough. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Each to their own, but not for me thanks! 👎
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Rob K
01 June 2023 21:55:30
Having been stuck inside working all day looking at the sunshine I finally got out for a walk just after 8pm. It was properly chilly by then with a bracing wind under clear skies (which have since clouded over). Time for southerlies please!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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