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Zubzero
06 June 2023 03:52:57

As you yourself said the other day, Matty, "Once a bully, always a bully". You would know that very well, of course, despite the emojis.

One of the things bullies do is exaggerate things. I don't want it to rain every day, but what I do want to see is average rainfall - spaced over a month, not the year. That means several days a month with rain, which surely isn't much to ask of a maritime nation such as ours.
I also don't want to have to spend more nights in a hotel because it's simply uninhabitable at home - as was the case last year when we had that 40C day. Beats me why anybody would think that was a good thing, but hey-ho.

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Why dont you get air con if your that affected by the heat? The portable ones do the job for small rooms such as a bedroom though they make a racket. Back to the weather signs in the ens that this amazing spell of cool NE spell could finally break 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=299&y=100&run=18&runpara=0&type=8&ext=1  

But if the op proves correct the cool spell has no end in sight. Do not remember ever seeing a run with such low temps all the way through at this time of year, even more so as its on the back of a long cool/dry spell 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=311&y=98&run=18&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1 
Retron
06 June 2023 03:58:32

Why dont you get air con if your that affected by the heat? The portable ones do the job for small rooms such as a bedroom though they make a racket. Back to the weather signs in the ens that this amazing spell of cool NE spell could finally break 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=299&y=100&run=18&runpara=0&type=8&ext=1  

But if the op proves correct the cool spell has no end in sight. Do not remember ever seeing a run with such low temps all the way through at this time of year, even more so as its on the back of a long cool/dry spell 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=311&y=98&run=18&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


I do have a portable air-con, and it's very useful. The snag is they stop working once the ambient temperature reaches 35C or so - as their compressor overheats. They simply won't turn on. Proper air-con is going to be increasingly common, I think, and I will probably end up going down that route - it's cheaper than demolishing and rebuilding the house!

There's definitely signs of a change in the ensembles, going back to the models. The ECM ensembles show the weekend onwards having temperatures in the low to mid 20s down here; after a couple of aimless days over the weekend the NE'lies return, but much lighter in nature.

GEFS meanwhile has lost the NE'ly signal in the long term now, and after a spell of "could be any direction" after the weekend, shows SW'lies gaining dominance. Last night's 12z op run was a remarkably cold outlier and it's no surprise that the 18z was closer to the pack.

The one thing that shows in both models is a period of generally well above average 850s. Currently it's the strength of the NE'lies that's minimising those effects, but once the winds drop they'll have much more of an effect.
Leysdown, north Kent
Zubzero
06 June 2023 04:14:51

I do have a portable air-con, and it's very useful. The snag is they stop working once the ambient temperature reaches 35C or so - as their compressor overheats. They simply won't turn on. Proper air-con is going to be increasingly common, I think, and I will probably end up going down that route - it's cheaper than demolishing and rebuilding the house!

There's definitely signs of a change in the ensembles, going back to the models. The ECM ensembles show the weekend onwards having temperatures in the low to mid 20s down here; after a couple of aimless days over the weekend the NE'lies return, but much lighter in nature.

GEFS meanwhile has lost the NE'ly signal in the long term now, and after a spell of "could be any direction" after the weekend, shows SW'lies gaining dominance. Last night's 12z op run was a remarkably cold outlier and it's no surprise that the 18z was closer to the pack.

The one thing that shows in both models is a period of generally well above average 850s. Currently it's the strength of the NE'lies that's minimising those effects, but once the winds drop they'll have much more of an effect.

Originally Posted by: Retron 



My mum just had air con fitted as she really struggles in the heat from health reasons. As you say the portable ones cant keep up when it gets to hot, and the crazy 40C last year made her get it fitted. Funny thing is its had little use so far since it was fitted. Its so quite compared to the portable + uses less electric overall and can be used as a heater in the Winter. Was a very good investment imo if you struggle in the heat.
+2
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
06 June 2023 07:04:50
Nearly all the continental area of NW Europe staying warm or very warm according to WX summary, but Britain getting less of a share in this than yesterday. N Scandinavia and W Russia staying cool, this area moving eastwards, also a little patch around Austria. Rain in week 1 in the same pattern as for many weeks past, very dry for N Sea to Baltic, and the band of rain across the N Med. Then a change for week 2 (and different from yesterday) as Atlantic pptn moves into Britain and the area over Italy starts to shift Ne into Austria.

GFS Op - LP on the Atlantic (storm Oscar, it's been damaging the Canaries) slowly taking over from the current HP and from Fri 9th directing a more S-ly flow for Britain with embedded shallow LPs drifting N from France (though MetO forecasts don't think these will generate much rain). Then a week of indeterminate pressure patterns before the Atlantic wakes up and pushes LP into Britain (1000mb SW Ireland Sat 17th, then again 995mb NW Ireland Wed 21st). Our recent resident HP spends the first week over Norway before moving to Greenland and fizzling out in week 2.

ECM - is more definite after Wed 14th with the Atlantic LP retreating W-ward and HP re-establishing in an arc Greenland-Britain-Azores; and the NE-lies are back! Thus likely to be much drier than GFS in week 2.

GEFS - becoming warm/very warm around Sun 11th then gradually back to seasonal norm by Thu 22nd. Rain in most ens members from Sun 11th (In the S, in intermittent heavy bursts at first. Relatively little in E Anglia and NE Scotland).
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Matty H
06 June 2023 08:05:01

As you yourself said the other day, Matty, "Once a bully, always a bully". You would know that very well, of course, despite the emojis.

One of the things bullies do is exaggerate things. I don't want it to rain every day, but what I do want to see is average rainfall - spaced over a month, not the year. That means several days a month with rain, which surely isn't much to ask of a maritime nation such as ours.
I also don't want to have to spend more nights in a hotel because it's simply uninhabitable at home - as was the case last year when we had that 40C day. Beats me why anybody would think that was a good thing, but hey-ho.

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



I love it. Can’t understand why anyone would check into a hotel because it’s hot either. I wonder how many people felt they had to do that to get aircon. Maybe health related I could understand. 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
06 June 2023 08:16:29
If the latest GFS is to be believed, the rains are set to return to the UK over the weekend and there is little respite from that point onwards. Perhaps we are all set for a June monsoon after all?

Fairly warm but if cloud amounts are high I don't see any 'proper' heatwave. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
+1
Russwirral
06 June 2023 10:04:15

If the latest GFS is to be believed, the rains are set to return to the UK over the weekend and there is little respite from that point onwards. Perhaps we are all set for a June monsoon after all?

Fairly warm but if cloud amounts are high I don't see any 'proper' heatwave. 

Originally Posted by: GezM 



This is starting to become almost a repeat performance of 2020.  A cool start, dry and sunny and getting warmer, then June thunderstorms

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
+1
Saint Snow
06 June 2023 11:00:34

This is starting to become almost a repeat performance of 2020.  A cool start, dry and sunny and getting warmer, then June thunderstorms

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 




Please not a repeat of that summer 😫

Rainier and cooler than average (for Midlands-north) is not what I want to see.


One thing that's consistent across most models is northern blocking. GFS's latest runs have the bocking more confined to the Greenland area, allowing low pressure from the SW to influence the UK, whereas ECM & GEM favour a continuation of lobes from that GH expanding far enough eastwards (SE'wards) to effect the UK weather with a continuation of the broadly easterly/north-easterly flow, for the northern two-thirds of the country at least.


 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
fairweather
06 June 2023 11:35:26

I do have a portable air-con, and it's very useful. The snag is they stop working once the ambient temperature reaches 35C or so - as their compressor overheats. They simply won't turn on. Proper air-con is going to be increasingly common, I think, and I will probably end up going down that route - it's cheaper than demolishing and rebuilding the house!

There's definitely signs of a change in the ensembles, going back to the models. The ECM ensembles show the weekend onwards having temperatures in the low to mid 20s down here; after a couple of aimless days over the weekend the NE'lies return, but much lighter in nature.

GEFS meanwhile has lost the NE'ly signal in the long term now, and after a spell of "could be any direction" after the weekend, shows SW'lies gaining dominance. Last night's 12z op run was a remarkably cold outlier and it's no surprise that the 18z was closer to the pack.

The one thing that shows in both models is a period of generally well above average 850s. Currently it's the strength of the NE'lies that's minimising those effects, but once the winds drop they'll have much more of an effect.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Provided you have an outside wall to the main room you want to cool down it is starightforward and worth it as it has been much cheaper to run than I expected. Only uses about 750W and cools the bedroom in less than half an hour. Plus it is only required now and again. If it gets oppressive elsewhere in a real heatwave we just go upstairs to the room just to cool down.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
06 June 2023 11:39:56

I love it. Can’t understand why anyone would check into a hotel because it’s hot either. I wonder how many people felt they had to do that to get aircon. Maybe health related I could understand. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


But then to be fair, you have always struggled to see things from someone else's point of view. 😀
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+4
moomin75
06 June 2023 15:35:54
Can't post the link, as I don't know how, but the newly released ECMWF seasonal forecast for July, August & September is strongly pointing towards return of drought conditions, with enhanced risk of high temperatures.
This looks very similar to last summer. Can lightning strike same place twice?
Possibly not so hot as there is no heat in the south of Europe, but things can change fast.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
06 June 2023 17:12:17
The 12s paint a humid picture from Friday.  Plenty of thunderstorms but some decent warmth 25c to 28c quite widely. Will feel great after this low cloud cool fest we've had to put up with here.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
06 June 2023 17:15:32

The 12s paint a humid picture from Friday.  Plenty of thunderstorms but some decent warmth 25c to 28c quite widely. Will feel great after this low cloud cool fest we've had to put up with here.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Thunderstorms Sunday please. 
I've still only played 1 game of cricket this season and this Saturday is my first opportunity to play since 13th May.
I will be mighty annoyed if the rain intervenes and I miss out yet again.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Jiries
06 June 2023 17:26:29

The 12s paint a humid picture from Friday.  Plenty of thunderstorms but some decent warmth 25c to 28c quite widely. Will feel great after this low cloud cool fest we've had to put up with here.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


With those temperatures we need full sunshine more than 10 hours to generate those temperatures more so in the mornings as we been robbed from those for weeks from the nasty cloud fest that prevent a morning rise.  The apps had been very wrong lately with sunny and high teens to 20 only end up overcast at low 10's now they put high temps and 3 days 24r hours rain nonstop with no sun so I expect the opposite. 🤣
Ally Pally Snowman
06 June 2023 18:58:04
That's more like it. Lovely ECM this evening.  Setting up a genuinely hot pattern. Lovely stuff!
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Matty H
06 June 2023 19:04:50

But then to be fair, you have always struggled to see things from someone else's point of view. 😀

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



And always will, and make no apologies for it. When that view is ridiculous of course. 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Matty H
06 June 2023 19:53:59

That's more like it. Lovely ECM this evening.  Setting up a genuinely hot pattern. Lovely stuff!
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Indeed! Bring it on! Just get that within nailed on reach 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
fairweather
06 June 2023 20:41:12

Can't post the link, as I don't know how, but the newly released ECMWF seasonal forecast for July, August & September is strongly pointing towards return of drought conditions, with enhanced risk of high temperatures.
This looks very similar to last summer. Can lightning strike same place twice?
Possibly not so hot as there is no heat in the south of Europe, but things can change fast.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Return to drought? With no significant rain likely here for the rest of June it will have been mid-May to September here in Essex. This follows last year's lowest recorded rainfall here.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
HighPressureGloom
06 June 2023 20:47:07
The Meto 12z totally scrubbing out any rainfall over much of the country. Bone dry here in North Cumbria out to 168h. 
White Meadows
06 June 2023 23:11:03
Very conflicting comments in here regarding general wetness/ drought unfolding for the Uk.
Meanwhile, Met office medium and long range text looks like it’s been written by a 6 year old today. 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
07 June 2023 06:49:56
WX charts show warm weather widespread over NW Europe, and moving steadily N-wards over Britain in the next 2 weeks. By the end of week 2 the significant cold area is only over N Scandinavia and N Russia plus a tiny patch over the Alps. Dry around the N Sea in week 1 with the persistent band of wet weather across S Europe; in week 2 the dry area is still there but the rain has moved E-wards to the Balkans, and some is appearing near NW Scotland (though not as much as shown yesterday)

GFS Op - HP moves off to Scandinavia by Sun 11th allowing S-ly drift with some LP moving N from France, but by Wed 14th the HP is back over Scotland with E/NE-ly winds back for the rest of the week. From Sun 18th pressure drops over the UK with LP off the Hebrides 995mb Tue 20th and a trough from it over the rest of Britain. That LP moves back into the Atlantic by FRi 23rd with SW-lies for all. Pressure remains low over the continent for much of this period and could affect S England at times.

ECM - similar to GFS to Sun 11th but the HP then stays out to the east, admittedly looking rather flabby, but enough to continue the theme of S-ly drift and shallow LP from France through to Thu 15th. I'm going out now so don't have time to wait for ECM 0z after that, but the 12z from yesterday shows HP spreading back over Britain but centred further S than on GFS thus avoiding E-ly winds.

GEFS - becoming warm or very warm around Sun 11th before slowly decreasing to norm by Fri 23rd with good agreement from ens members. Some rain from time to time, most likely following 11th and then again Mon 19th in S & E, more general in W, very dry in NE Scotland.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
Ally Pally Snowman
07 June 2023 08:14:03
Very nice ECM this morning would be very close to 30c on a couple of days if it verifies. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
UncleAlbert
07 June 2023 08:39:56
A tentative shift towards something a bit more settled again next week across the models at least for a while.
Super Cell
07 June 2023 09:16:57

If the latest GFS is to be believed, the rains are set to return to the UK over the weekend and there is little respite from that point onwards. Perhaps we are all set for a June monsoon after all?

Fairly warm but if cloud amounts are high I don't see any 'proper' heatwave. 

Originally Posted by: GezM 



I read this post yesterday and couldn't really see anything to justify it. Very light rain and blobs indicating showers which we know would be sporadic and well spaced. No widespread rain at all. What was I missing?

EDIT: Just taken a look at the latest version and again, a lot of lightish areas but diffuse and never gains traction except perhaps in the far south west. This is in accordance with the UKMO outlook of course, but doesn't represent 'little respite' unless you're meaning from largely dry calm weather, if not wall to wall sunshine accompanied by heatwaves.
Farnley/Pudsey Leeds
40m asl
ballamar
07 June 2023 09:42:00

Very nice ECM this morning would be very close to 30c on a couple of days if it verifies. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Goes to show how easy it is to reach hot temps now without a consistent pattern. Think any heat this year might be accompanied by some stormy weather

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