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John S2
02 October 2023 12:49:08
If I was making a prediction[educated guess] at this early stage for winter 23-24 it would be for a highly variable winter including mild spells with possible flooding in places plus a notable cold snap [or 2 shorter cold snaps]. 
It looks as though this will be an El Nino winter. El Nino sometimes injects extra energy into the atmosphere leading to both enhanced westerlies and blocking. Examples of El Nino winters where this occurred are 86/87 where an extreme westerly 3-month spell Oct-Dec 86 was followed by the cold Jan 87, and the exceptionally wet Nov 2009 followed by the notably cold 09/10 winter. [I'm not predicting a winter as cold as 09/10]
I don't think coldies need be too worried about the mild conditions during strong El Nino winters 82/83, 97/98, 2015/16. Currently we have an El Nino which looks strong in certain respects but is not behaving like an El Nino - ie is not 'coupled' to Northern Hemisphere circulation patterns. Measured by ONI index - sea surface temperatures in Pacific Nino region - we have an El Nino. Also, Australia has just experienced its driest September on record but...
If we look at the MEI index, which combines several oceanic & atmospheric variables, then the July/Aug figure wasn't even in El Nino territory. This is in strong contrast to the same time of year in 1982, 1997 & 2015 when the MEI index was already very high.
I have read contributions about the current El Nino from several knowledgeable commentators who are stating everything across a spectrum from (a) the El Nino will be strong/super and will fully couple with the atmosphere quite soon to (b) the El Nino is already starting to fizzle. Where on this spectrum we end up will likely be a significant factor influencing the relative frequency of blocking vs mild zonality.
+1
Saint Snow
02 October 2023 15:25:05
As I do every year, I'm hoping for a front-loaded winter.

Snow & cold in December, and especially before & over the festive period, is the holy grail.

I'd obviously love 3 months of cold and snow but, failing that immensely unlikely scenario, I'd be happy for Jan & Feb to be 'meh' if I got 3 weeks of cold & snow from mid-December.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Brian Gaze
02 October 2023 15:32:46
At the end of the day people can pontificate about this as much as they want. However, the reality is that milder than average months continue to be more likely than colder than average ones. That's even true when benchmarking against the 1991-2020 period. Obviously no one can rule out a cold winter this year, but the odds are not favourable when viewed against the long term probabilities.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Saint Snow
02 October 2023 15:56:09

At the end of the day people can pontificate about this as much as they want. However, the reality is that milder than average months continue to be more likely than colder than average ones. That's even true when benchmarking against the 1991-2020 period. Obviously no one can rule out a cold winter this year, but the odds are not favourable when viewed against the long term probabilities.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 




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Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Brian Gaze
02 October 2023 17:31:56
I expect the warm October cold winter theory will be doing the rounds soon. Here are the top 15 warmest Octobers between 1900 and 2022.

Place    Year    Value    1961-90    1971-00    1981-10    1991-20    1659-2020
1    2001    13.2    2.6    2.9    2.6    2.3    3.5
2    1969    13.1    2.5    2.8    2.5    2.2    3.4
3    2005    13    2.4    2.7    2.4    2.1    3.3
4    2006    12.9    2.3    2.6    2.3    2    3.2
5    2022    12.8    2.2    2.5    2.2    1.9    3.1
6    1921    12.8    2.2    2.5    2.2    1.9    3.1
7    1995    12.7    2.1    2.4    2.1    1.8    3
8    1959    12.6    2    2.3    2    1.7    2.9
9    1968    12.5    1.9    2.2    1.9    1.6    2.8
10    2011    12.5    1.9    2.2    1.9    1.6    2.8
11    2013    12.4    1.8    2.1    1.8    1.5    2.7
12    2014    12.3    1.7    2    1.7    1.4    2.6
13    2017    12.2    1.6    1.9    1.6    1.3    2.5
14    2021    12    1.4    1.7    1.4    1.1    2.3
15    1945    11.9    1.3    1.6    1.3    1    2.2
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+3
CField
02 October 2023 19:26:11
Suprising Oct 78 isnt among them...i always think of that period of weather before North Winds laden with snow showers arrived in mid November 78..

I expect the warm October cold winter theory will be doing the rounds soon. Here are the top 15 warmest Octobers between 1900 and 2022.

Place    Year    Value    1961-90    1971-00    1981-10    1991-20    1659-2020
1    2001    13.2    2.6    2.9    2.6    2.3    3.5
2    1969    13.1    2.5    2.8    2.5    2.2    3.4
3    2005    13    2.4    2.7    2.4    2.1    3.3
4    2006    12.9    2.3    2.6    2.3    2    3.2
5    2022    12.8    2.2    2.5    2.2    1.9    3.1
6    1921    12.8    2.2    2.5    2.2    1.9    3.1
7    1995    12.7    2.1    2.4    2.1    1.8    3
8    1959    12.6    2    2.3    2    1.7    2.9
9    1968    12.5    1.9    2.2    1.9    1.6    2.8
10    2011    12.5    1.9    2.2    1.9    1.6    2.8
11    2013    12.4    1.8    2.1    1.8    1.5    2.7
12    2014    12.3    1.7    2    1.7    1.4    2.6
13    2017    12.2    1.6    1.9    1.6    1.3    2.5
14    2021    12    1.4    1.7    1.4    1.1    2.3
15    1945    11.9    1.3    1.6    1.3    1    2.2

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Brian Gaze
02 October 2023 20:11:17

Suprising Oct 78 isnt among them...i always think of that period of weather before North Winds laden with snow showers arrived in mid November 78..

Originally Posted by: CField 



11.7C which is currently the 26th warmest October CET since 1659.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Bolty
02 October 2023 20:14:34

I expect the warm October cold winter theory will be doing the rounds soon. Here are the top 15 warmest Octobers between 1900 and 2022.

Place    Year    Value    1961-90    1971-00    1981-10    1991-20    1659-2020
1    2001    13.2    2.6    2.9    2.6    2.3    3.5
2    1969    13.1    2.5    2.8    2.5    2.2    3.4
3    2005    13    2.4    2.7    2.4    2.1    3.3
4    2006    12.9    2.3    2.6    2.3    2    3.2
5    2022    12.8    2.2    2.5    2.2    1.9    3.1
6    1921    12.8    2.2    2.5    2.2    1.9    3.1
7    1995    12.7    2.1    2.4    2.1    1.8    3
8    1959    12.6    2    2.3    2    1.7    2.9
9    1968    12.5    1.9    2.2    1.9    1.6    2.8
10    2011    12.5    1.9    2.2    1.9    1.6    2.8
11    2013    12.4    1.8    2.1    1.8    1.5    2.7
12    2014    12.3    1.7    2    1.7    1.4    2.6
13    2017    12.2    1.6    1.9    1.6    1.3    2.5
14    2021    12    1.4    1.7    1.4    1.1    2.3
15    1945    11.9    1.3    1.6    1.3    1    2.2

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



It is a strange theory, I must admit, because there are only about three Octobers in that list that were followed by cold and snowy winters. I wonder where the origin of it comes from?

* Winter 2005-06 was quite chilly and anticyclonic. I think there were decent snowy spells in late November and early March.
* Winter 1995-96 was of course, a notably easterly winter with an exceptional cold spell in late December and then a few cold easterlies between January and March.
* Winter 1968-69 was also cold, with a cold spell in December that brought quite a widespread White Christmas. January was then mild, but February was cold and notoriously snowy.
* You cold also perhaps throw in 2017-18 too. Not overly cold, but it did have a few cold and snowy moments - particularly a chilly December and the BFTE in late February and early March.

Other than those four, nothing else really stand out, unless I'm missing something. 2006-07, 1921-22, 2011-12, 2013-14 and 2021-22 were very mild winters in fact. Given that, I'd say there really isn't much connection...
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Chunky Pea
02 October 2023 21:32:58

As I do every year, I'm hoping for a front-loaded winter.

Snow & cold in December, and especially before & over the festive period, is the holy grail.

I'd obviously love 3 months of cold and snow but, failing that immensely unlikely scenario, I'd be happy for Jan & Feb to be 'meh' if I got 3 weeks of cold & snow from mid-December.

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Nothing like a pre Christmas frosty/snowy spell. Such weather is acceptable during the first half of January as well. But after that, when the days start becoming noticeably longer, it just doesn't quite have the same punch.
​​​​
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Retron
03 October 2023 17:42:21

It is a strange theory, I must admit, because there are only about three Octobers in that list that were followed by cold and snowy winters. I wonder where the origin of it comes from?

Originally Posted by: Bolty 


It's a ******isation of the theory that Paul Bartlett quoted - warm dry October followed by a cold wet November.

On one hand, he'd forgotten more about the weather than I'll ever know.
On the other, the climate has changed so much in the past 30 years, who knows what the correlations (if any) are these days!
Leysdown, north Kent
Gavin D
08 October 2023 11:49:50
Sixth winter update from Gavin P



some faraway beach
08 October 2023 13:39:14

Suprising Oct 78 isnt among them...i always think of that period of weather before North Winds laden with snow showers arrived in mid November 78..

Originally Posted by: CField 



Interestingly 1978 has been miles clear in the analogue charts for the last four days. I can't remember a year being so far clear in those tables for so long.

It looks to me that the principal similarities are the huge area of low pressure currently over NW Russia and Scandinavia, plus low pressure over Greenland and in the north Atlantic. Perhaps those are all indications of the Polar Vortex not getting organized. Just got to keep it up for the next ten weeks and we'll be in business!
2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Brian Gaze
08 October 2023 13:40:28
1978 is currently No 1 in the weekly analogue tracker. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
polarwind
13 October 2023 12:24:52

Interestingly 1978 has been miles clear in the analogue charts for the last four days. I can't remember a year being so far clear in those tables for so long.

It looks to me that the principal similarities are the huge area of low pressure currently over NW Russia and Scandinavia, plus low pressure over Greenland and in the north Atlantic. Perhaps those are all indications of the Polar Vortex not getting organized. Just got to keep it up for the next ten weeks and we'll be in business!

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach 


The synoptics over the North Atlantic has for many weeks now, been more reminiscent of the 60s-70s rather than the more recent decades and which I posted about, what?- six weeks ago?
November could be very interesting!
 
"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
White Meadows
18 October 2023 12:12:39
If the latest extended Met office forecast is anything to go by then winds from an Easterly quarter are expected to be more prevalent. 
johncs2016
18 October 2023 12:42:12

If the latest extended Met office forecast is anything to go by then winds from an Easterly quarter are expected to be more prevalent. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



The one big caveat with that is the currently warm SSTs over the North Sea, but I note that this has been cooling down slightly just recently, especially further north and if we can maintain enough cold winds from off an increasingly cold continent over a long enough period, we might well see those SSTs over the North Sea cooling down even further.

If that happens, things could become very interesting indeed.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
White Meadows
26 October 2023 20:26:35
The colder prospects for late November have vanished from Met office extended narrative.
Not such a bad thing if you believe in the old folklore ‘…slush and muck’ saying. 
 
Saint Snow
10 November 2023 16:40:15
What's people's latest thoughts?

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Retron
10 November 2023 18:12:36

What's people's latest thoughts?

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Expect nothing of interest snow wise and you won't be disappointed.

That said, I can't help but look forward to another winter - and with all these southerly-tracking lows, it certainly feels different this year. Even the long term Met Office contingency forecast is colder than for a long while, albeit only normal rather than actually cold!

And for the first time I can remember, the Baltic is icing up well ahead of schedule.

(I've been using that chart for over a decade, and usually there's no ice to be seen for quite a while)

https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ice-conditions 
https://cdn.fmi.fi/marine-observations/products/ice-charts/latest-full-color-ice-chart.pdf 

 
Leysdown, north Kent
+2
polarwind
12 November 2023 09:24:58

Expect nothing of interest snow wise and you won't be disappointed.

That said, I can't help but look forward to another winter - and with all these southerly-tracking lows, it certainly feels different this year. Even the long term Met Office contingency forecast is colder than for a long while, albeit only normal rather than actually cold!

And for the first time I can remember, the Baltic is icing up well ahead of schedule.

(I've been using that chart for over a decade, and usually there's no ice to be seen for quite a while)

https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ice-conditions 
https://cdn.fmi.fi/marine-observations/products/ice-charts/latest-full-color-ice-chart.pdf 

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Yes, the 'southerly tracking lows'. In other words, 'lows not traveling NE to the north of Scandinavia - with their attendant warm and rainy winds over GB.
As I said earlier - much more akin to the weather systems of decades ago.
"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
+1
polarwind
12 November 2023 09:28:35

Expect nothing of interest snow wise and you won't be disappointed.

That said, I can't help but look forward to another winter - and with all these southerly-tracking lows, it certainly feels different this year. Even the long term Met Office contingency forecast is colder than for a long while, albeit only normal rather than actually cold!

And for the first time I can remember, the Baltic is icing up well ahead of schedule.

(I've been using that chart for over a decade, and usually there's no ice to be seen for quite a while)

https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ice-conditions 
https://cdn.fmi.fi/marine-observations/products/ice-charts/latest-full-color-ice-chart.pdf 

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Consider also, the early heavy snow and cold over parts of China.
I'm going to keep my eye on this thread!
 
"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
+1
Gandalf The White
14 November 2023 13:36:10

What's people's latest thoughts?

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



The El Niño is strengthening steadily and forecast to peak during the NH winter before starting to subside slowly into the spring and summer.  The classic El Niño signature for Western Europe is a mild wet start trending drier and colder. How it plays out is another matter, but it’s something to keep in mind. If that’s right we should see more high pressure at higher latitudes as we move through the winter months.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
ballamar
15 November 2023 08:03:59
For the last 6 weeks the squirrels in my garden have been going crazy. Certainty of a cold winter! 
+1
tallyho_83
18 November 2023 22:48:10
Well it's an El Nino winter - so first things first! It will be much wetter in comparison to the boring and benign winters we have had over previous winters. Usually wetter means milder and El Nino winters favour a backloaded winters. La Nina winters tend to be drier as winter 21/22 and 22/23 has proved but strangely they have been milder as well as drier with dirty high pressure systems giving the majority of the UK an overcast gloomy borefest.

Past two winters have been relatively dry due to la Nina and last winter we did have a front loaded winter - a good 2 week colder spell in early December. I expect this winter will be mild and wet especially at first - then we will have a SSW in mid winter (Most likely in January) - thanks to the Easterly QBO and then come the 2nd half of the winter we will see some colder snowier spells to the winter with February being the coldest month of the winter - so typical El Nino winter I guess. - Anyway, just a guess haha!
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


+2
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 November 2023 08:40:22
CFS model forecasting cold anomalies for Britain of -10C (Dec) and -5C (Jan), and then average until May when at least the SE is a lot warmer (+10C).

But CFS being what it is, if you don't like the above, just re-visit it in a week's time!
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
#climate #Ukwinters #snow #coldwinter #QBO #NAO #AO #gulfstream #globalwarming #jetstream #enso #El-Nino

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