Deriving from the diminishing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)?

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Thanks to Darren (see earlier post) I've now added in GEFS wind gust speed charts using the 0.25 degree data sets. They go out to 10 days and are currently available on the ensemble forecast page:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx 

The 00Z London plot below is an example. I've not scheduled and automated the downloads yet but will do by the end of tday.

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It has been wet of course, an impact of the "Storms".  But not been any significant wind in this part of the UK.   Nothing wind wise that you wouldn't get in Summer and not had to tie anything down yet. 

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Same here, we’ve had a few breezy days but also calm and foggy.  Although we’ve had days with phenomenal amounts of rain that’s caused floods. 

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We, too, had mostly light winds and spells of torrential downpours, and it has frequently been very dull and misty/foggy.

If this was between April and August, it would instead be bands or clusters of very slow moving, very heavy showers with thunder and, especially in spring, hail. However, there may also be occasional dry days with spells of warm sunshine.

It certainly hasn't usually been the case in recent times that any mention has been made of snow in any forecasts during the early days of November, even for high ground in Scotland. We seem to have had more exceptionally mild spells at the end of October & start of November in recent years than any where there was any possibility of any snow at any level anywhere in the UK.

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WX - most of W & NW Europe near normal  temps for the next 2 weeks; SE Europe warm for the time of year but cooler in week 2; NE Europe sees the freezing area retreat a little. Rainfall in week 1 for Atlantic coastal countries with extensions in the N to the Baltic and in the S past the Alps to Greece. In week 2 this splits with one part in the N Atlantic and the other in the central Mediterranean; Britain in the marginally less wet gap between the two. Very dry for the Black Sea and NE-wards from there.

GFS Op - storm Ciaran showing the two-pronged attack (from NW and SW) as yesterday  to consolidate 955mb Pennines Thu midday - a little further N than previous and isobars not quite as tight. This moves N-wards before being incorporated into the next storm from the Atlantic 955mb Wales midday Sat 4th. This promises to retreat N-wards but in the end ends up in the N Sea 980mb Wed 8th with NE-lies for Britain. HP then extends from the SW across Britain  until displaced by a broad trough extending from 970mb centre W of Iceland Thu 16th.

ECM - places Ciaran early Thu 960mb Cornwall crossing Britain to N Sea by Friday and absorbing smaller LPs west of the Hebrides. Ciaran in turn is swallowed by an incoming LP to form a large area of LP 965mb E Anglia early Sun 5th with the worst of any gales on the fringes of Britain. As yesterday, and as per GFS, there is then a period of N/NW-lies BUT a sharp difference thereafter; no ridge of HP but new LP from the NW reaching Irish Sea 985mb Fri 10th.

GEFS - temps as previously forecast, near or a degree or two below norm for the next two weeks. Wettest generally in the S, around 2nd/4th/12th; The NW misses out on the 4th and there are fewer ens members suggesting rain in the N around Tue 12th. 

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perhaps a reflection of the weather. Significant ‘eastern promise’ and it will rebound. 
Even Ciarán will be a ‘damp’ albeit windy squibb i suspect (or no worse than standard storm)

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Perhaps a tad IMBY-ish?  It will be a notable and likely damaging storm for those in the path of the strongest winds and heaviest rain, but that has always looked like being the southernmost part of the country.  To be honest I’d rather it missed everyone, given the likely consequences.

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It won't, though. Not to the level it was. I remember 15-20 years ago and, even with the sniff of a cold spell, there'd be dozens of posts every GFS run, with a running commentary at it trundled out.

We can't even totally blame Matty for driving them all away.

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I've just removed a number of OT posts. The FA can be used for discussion of other topics.

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Nothing special in the WX temp charts for Europe - a general cooling which should bring temps down to norm for most of Europe. Spain is the exception, currently cool but due to warm slightly and ath the other end of the Med, week 2 looks like the end of the rather warm weather they've been having. Some growth in the freezing weather over W Russia compared to yesterday when it was indicated to shrink. Rain more persistent over the Atlantic coastal areas than shown yesterday, esp for week 2; the extension to the Baltic dies away and that to Italy detaches and moves to Greece.

GFS Op- Storm Ciaran is extensively covered in its own thread - just to note that in addition to the main centre early tomorrow (Thu) at 955mb Isle of Wight (other models put it a little further north) there are additional centres in its circulation 960mb W of Hebrides and 975mb E Atlantic. These all consolidate to one centre 960mb NE England by early Fri with winds switching from S-ly severe gales to strong N-lies. Only briefly, though; the next LP steams in off the Atlantic and merges with Ciaran. Although the nominal centre is 965mb Devon Sat Midday, the LP encompasses all of Britain so likely wet everywhere but any strong winds circulating around the outer fringes of Britain e.g. affecting France. 

This fills and the weather calms down to a normal November scenario of LP near  N Scotland, HP near S of France with brisk W/NW-lies to Wed 8th when they turn more n-ly. The next LP 960mb S of Iceland Sun 12th switches winds back to the SW, probably gales over W Britain esp as it moves to NW Scotland 980mb Tue 14th, filling. Last chart, for Fri 17th has large LP 975mb mid-Atlantic with long-fetch S-lies ofr Britain.

Fax - places Ciaran 954mb Cornwall early Thu and 957mb E Anglia late Thu. Then LP for Sat 959mb SW Ireland but again affecting Britain at large.

ECM - agrees well with GFS (a relief not to have to type all that again!)

GEFS - temps continue close to or a little below norm, though with a suggestion of an uptick at the end (Fri 17th). Rain in quantity for the S esp Thu 2nd and Sun 5th Nov, short dry spell then a fair amount around Sun 12th. The episode on the 5th is suppressed as you go further N, and there is also less rain in the following week though by no means dry.

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Storm Ciaran - see dedicated thread. 

For the longer term, WX temps show Europe still above norm (except Spain) in week 1 but cooling slowly into week 2 with colder weather steadily extending from the NE (Scandinavia definitely cold) and and any remaining warmth retreating to the far SE. The rainfall forecast keeps changing - today week 1 shows rain extending from the Atlantic across virtually all of Europe, narrowing somewhat to exclude Scandinavia and Spain in week 2.

GFS Op - Ciaran quickly tracking out into the N Sea being taken over by new LP 960mb Sat 4th  in SW approaches, larger but flabbier than Ciaran  so less windy but still much rain esp in S. This moves N and ushers in a week of a standard W-ly pattern with LP near Iceland and HP in S Europe. At the end of the week and for the following week, shallow areas of LP move SE-wards across Britain: Fri 10th 980 mb Orkney, Mon 12th 990mb E Anglia, Sat 18th 995mb E Scotland, with intervals of HP between.

ECM - similar to GFS though Saturday's LP is centred further N.

GEFS -  mean temps continuing to be near or a little below norm though op & control suggest brief warm spells Thu 9th and Wed 14th in the S. Heavy rain Sun 5th but not further N, more generally around Fri 10th, but never really dry. 

 

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ECM looks fairly chilly at the end of the run this morning. GFS 6Z not looking overly mild either.

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Despite the low dominated weather...I feel the key to this forthcoming winter is that high in mid Atlantic.....latest 6z GFS 384hr run shows it migrating to Iberia...could be game over if it stubbornly roots there, but aside the negativity there is a hell of a lot of potential in the models for a snowfest winter for the UK if the cards all fall into place.....

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Interesting throw away line from Kirsty McCabe SKY News weather presenter this morning she said this winter is looking interesting cold wise. 
 

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Well said that man.
meanwhile, following Sky Weather’s ice age prediction for this winter, here’s a cheeky look at CFS overall November picture for Europe:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euT2mMonInd1.gif 

where’s Francis Wilson when you need him? 

Quite refreshing to see average temperatures forecast for the UK. After recent autumns average will feel quite chilly. 

Certainly the phone app doesn’t paint a mild picture here for next week, with maxima around 10C and minima down to low single figures. That shouldn’t be unusual for November but it kind of is these days!

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I was wondering what had happened to her. And Laura Tobin  as well.  I think she went to ITV
 

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WX temp charts continue the trend of the last few days. In week 1 most of Europe is slightly above norm but cools down a bit in week 2 while cold weather over W Russia expands - all quite usual for the time of year. Rainfall on Atlantic coasts in week 1, with much of Europe getting some as well (esp Italy/Balkans); persisting on the Atlantic including Britain in week 2 though Spain becomes dry and there are separate wet areas in the S Med and E Turkey.

GFS Op - Storm Ciaran off to the N Sea soon being incorporated into new LP from Atlantic 960mb Sat midday in SW approaches, this is a large area covering all of Britain so expect rain but the windiest parts are held offshore. This fills and moves NE and the weather through to Thu 16th is dominated by LP to W or SW of Iceland often down to 950mb with a broad and quite strong wind field, W-ly at beginning of week becoming Sw-ly and back to W-ly again. A short change on Thu 16th as a small LP 980mb breaks off and runs across Scotland then back to W-lies. Any HP is somewhere down by the Pyrenees. 

ECM - much the same as GFS at first though the LP near Iceland not as deep. Then on Sun 12th that LP moves SE-wards to Ireland 975mb and to Scotland the day after.

GEFS - temps a degree or two below norm to Sun 12th (short pulse of warmth ca Wed 8th) then much less certainty than shown yesterday. A little milder at first, then the mean returns to norm but this conceals big disagreements between ens members, and individual members rise and fall but not in sync with each other! Fairly dry in the NE to Sun 12th after which some rain though not much in NE Scotland; elsewhere the rain sets in about Thu 9th, and the S has a heavy fall late Sat  4th.

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Seem to be signs of a reversion to default Eurohigh blandness on the way. Hope not!

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I think that something drier and less windy would be welcomed by most. At the moment it looks to be trending towards more rain in the north and west rather than dry overall. 

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If it means something drier, then I'll welcome it with open arms. Yet another miserable, grey wet day amongst many around here today, and I'm sick of it.

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We had some sunny spells between showers.

It's what I expect for November - but something dry and crisp would be lovely (whereas something mild would be *ugh*)

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Not much let up from the Atlantic over the next 10 days according to GFS. That’s x2 fireworks events I had in diary abruptly cancelled.