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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
10 November 2023 15:06:12

Im hoping something like this becomes stubborn to shift

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



The WX temp charts over the last few days have kept advancing cold air from Russia only to have second thoughts and draw back in the next iteration. So fingers especially firmly crossed!
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
10 November 2023 18:01:41

The WX temp charts over the last few days have kept advancing cold air from Russia only to have second thoughts and draw back in the next iteration. So fingers especially firmly crossed!

Originally Posted by: DEW 



GFS is certainly showing colder air pushing south later in the month, to the east of anticyclones and not being keen to move off. Potential for the first cold v mild battle of the season
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
dagspot
10 November 2023 18:59:28
Tripole… was he in RentaGhost? 
Neilston 600ft ASL
icecoldstevet
10 November 2023 19:01:00
I'm hoping the models continue to show a stream of fronts dropping rain over the SW as even with all the rain we've had earlier in the year and recently the two main reservoirs in Devon and Cornwall are still less than 60% full. 
Cornwall - 50 Metres Above Sea Level - 1 Mile From The Atlantic Coast
BJBlake
11 November 2023 00:58:29
Gosh, That’s unexpected. I’d have assumed that the mixed summer would have brought relief to the drought stricken summer of 2022, which certainly took it’s toll of the aquifers here in the east of England. It’s been so wet too, so I’d have thought the reservoirs would have been full and aquifers re-filled.  In that case - as you say - keep the fronts coming in. From the models, whilst I can see little consistency run by run, the one central theme is the relentless strong jet and west to east flow. I wonder if the aurora boreal display is indicative of a very active sun, and there are those that would suggest this has a direct influence in enhancing the jet stream strength. Not sure of the mechanism by which this is supposed to work though. The models certainly would suggest plenty more is on the way to replenish our reservoirs and aquifers.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
11 November 2023 06:22:59

Gosh, That’s unexpected. I’d have assumed that the mixed summer would have brought relief to the drought stricken summer of 2022, which certainly took its toll of the aquifers here in the east of England. It’s been so wet too, so I’d have thought the reservoirs would have been full and aquifers re-filled.  In that case - as you say - keep the fronts coming in. From the models, whilst I can see little consistency run by run, the one central theme is the relentless strong jet and west to east flow. I wonder if the aurora boreal display is indicative of a very active sun, and there are those that would suggest this has a direct influence in enhancing the jet stream strength. Not sure of the mechanism by which this is supposed to work though. The models certainly would suggest plenty more is on the way to replenish our reservoirs and aquifers.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 

Although we’ve had a lot of rain, when it’s heavy most of it runs straight into drains, rivers and away to the sea.  For it to recharge aquifers, it needs to be steady and sustained enough to soak into the ground.  Once the ground’s dry and hard, it takes longer to soak down.
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
11 November 2023 07:30:41

Although we’ve had a lot of rain, when it’s heavy most of it runs straight into drains, rivers and away to the sea.  For it to recharge aquifers, it needs to be steady and sustained enough to soak into the ground.  Once the ground’s dry and hard, it takes longer to soak down.

Originally Posted by: Caz 



And, as I've pointed out before, until about now, vegetation can soak up maybe as much as a couple of cm of rain in a given fall by way of being used for growth and on the surfaces of leaves. You wouldn't expect any serious recharge until now.

Southern reservoirs are variously from 60 to 90% but all above average for the end of October, and we've had a lot more rain since then.
https://www.southernwater.co.uk/water-for-life/reservoir-levels 
And the groundwater levels have gone mad since their annual low point at that time
https://sites.google.com/view/groundwatergraphs/home/groundwater-data/sussex/chilgrove-west-dean-to-east-dean-chilgrove 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
11 November 2023 07:56:06
But back to the models ...

WX charts show temps still a little above norm for week 1 in NW Europe but there is a marked cooling in week 2 with cold air from Russia moving SW, some very cold air in the far N, and though not freezing, much of Europe is down to the 2-4C level, and unlike yesterday, Britain is cooling too. Rain, much as yesterday, week 1 from the Atlantic through Britain and the Alps to Greece; week 2 more widespread than shown yesterday, for W Britain (the E is almost dry), the Baltic, Alps, Balkans, Black Sea.

GFS Op - LP on Atlantic pushing a forward trough across (esp N) Britain this week but HP ridging from the S next weekend. After Tue 21st when a shallow low runs across Scotland, Britain is on the fringe of HP mostly to the NW and LP over Norway, with the air source uncertainly varying between the N Atlantic and the Arctic, quite a change from yesterday's chart.

ECM - the HP never really develops and from Sat 18th a big contrast with GFS, deep LP on the Atlantic getting closer and strong SW-lies for Britain. HP rather than LP for the N Baltic.

GEFS - milder at least in the S this week, and again around Sun 19th. Mean temp back to norm between and after these dates but with both op & control runs very cold after Sun 26th, Ens members agree on rain for this week, most prolonged in S, and rain also appears in small amounts in many runs after that but some stay dry.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
Matty H
11 November 2023 11:20:32

This does seem to be firming up quite quickly now, if this keeps up expect warnings to be issued tomorrow.

The 12z MetO, like GFS, is stormy - an awful run. Here's the composite max gust map, comprised of no fewer than three systems.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/39/22099/ukmohd_uk1_52_168_0uzn9.png 
UserPostedImage


Sunday night, the Channel coasts and the Westcountry:

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/67/20031/ukmohd_11_75_0zot9.png
UserPostedImage 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/28/4281/ukmohd_11_78_0pko4.png
UserPostedImage 

Monday, Wales and the Midlands:

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/78/1059/ukmohd_11_102_0qob0.png 
UserPostedImage

And then severe gales over much of the south on Wednesday.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/21/1801/ukmohd_11_132_0vya0.png
UserPostedImage 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



I thought this post was from today, initially. Looks blustery now. Nothing worse than wind storms 
Yate, Nr Bristol
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White Meadows
11 November 2023 23:20:19
Rather windy Monday morning along south west coasts but nothing of concern as per recent storms. 

The Polar Vortex getting very organised over the next week or so. Very little in the way of colder or settled weather for any of the UK. 
perhaps December will be different.
Quantum
12 November 2023 08:42:38
Models are definitely playing with the idea of some potentially wintry weather in the final week of November. One to watch.
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
12 November 2023 09:00:33
BBC forecast showing 70-100mm rain this week widely for S & W, with West Wales having the highest totals, and suggesting that a named storm may be declared soon, mainly affecting Irish Sea areas tomorrow.

WX temp chart shows most of Europe slightly above norm; warm spots over Spain and S Russia, cold even very cold over N Baltic. In week 2 the cold air over N Russia consolidates and moves SW-ward; not freezing yet but much of NW Europe incl Scotland looking distinctly cooler. Rain fro Britain, Germany and (separately) Turkey & Ukraine in week 1; week 2 unlike yesterday when it dried up somewhat over Britain now has heavy rain here extending into France with a trail continuing down to the Adriatic (early snow for the Alps?).

GFS Op - LP mid Atlantic generating spin-off LPs 980mb S Scotland Mon 13th and 985 mb SW Ireland Wed 15th before filling itself but the spin-offs linking to LP in S Baltic. New LP moving from Atlantic to Faeroes 990mb Sun 19th with Sw-lies for Britain until then after which it drops Sw-wards to form an extended trough from SW Britain to N Norway with NE-lies on the northern flank. This drifts SE-wards into the continent with a very brief window of HP Thu 23rd before yet more LP from the N Atlantic moves in 1000mb covering all of Britain Sat 25th and 995mb N Sea Tue 28th. A much wetter outlook than yesterday.

ECM - also an LP dominated outlook; one trough across Britain Tue 14th instead of two separate ones as per GFS, then shallow LP persists until reinforced from from Atlantic Sun 19th but that stays further S with W-lies rather than SW-lies; and instead of an extended trough there is a twin-centre LP Finland 990mb with junior partner 1000mb E Anglia Tue 21st and N-lies developing. Not really a lot of difference from GFS.

GEFS - milder now in the S and again widely around Sun 19th, near norm in between; then later much less agreement between ens members but suggestions of something cooler. Rain from time to time in most areas in most runs, no marked break in the sequence anywhere but particularly wet in the west.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
ballamar
12 November 2023 12:17:50
Potential growing for a foggy end to November - give a nice seasonal feel
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 November 2023 07:46:07
WX temp charts continue their showing of the last few days; Europe generally starting a little above average but with colder weather spreading from the NE where there are some very cold patches, the cooling affecting mainly SE Europe and Turkey. The rainfall charts however keep changing; week 1 as yesterday with rain from the Atlantic across Britain and into W Europe but the wet forecast for week 2 has gone - Britain and W Europe are basically dry with any rain/snow confined to Norway and E Russia.

GFS Op - Storm Debi zipping across S Scotland 985mb midday today; the main LP on the Atlantic fills but settles over Britain on Thu 16th. New LP moves from the SW grazing Scotland to Norway 985mb Sun 19th with strong SW-lies (frontal rain forecast for Thu) veering N-ly. The new feature in today's forecast is HP becoming rapidly established for Britain (1040mb for all England and Ireland) Wed 22nd slowly declining over the following week to a N-S ridge while LP often near the E Baltic brings in persistent N-lies to cool continental Europe.

ECM - at first keeping pressure higher over Britain with LP on Thu 16th in the N Sea. Later on the HP is further from Britain, off SW Ireland with NW-lies rather than settled HP on Wed 22nd.

GEFS - milder than norm for a day or two at a time, now, around Sat 18th and Wed 22nd with near norm or just below for most of the time. Rain in heavy bursts for the first week, declining in intensity and occurring in fewer and fewer runs later.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
ballamar
13 November 2023 10:30:37
Hopefully the high can cut off the jet and get us on the cold side ready for last week November. Also to dry things out a bit
Gusty
13 November 2023 11:06:29
We appear to be moving towards a drier, cooler and more settled period of weather with more of an anomolous NNW'ly flow circa 7-10 days as  the Azores ridge amplifies towards Iceland with some quite cold air to the NE. Winter chart watching season officially begins. 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



+2
Tractor Boy
13 November 2023 11:38:03
Quite. A cheeky toppler in the 06z GFS FI at day 11.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_264_1.png 

 
Dave
Farndale, North York Moors
+1
overland
13 November 2023 12:38:22

Quite. A cheeky toppler in the 06z GFS FI at day 11.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_264_1.png 

 

Originally Posted by: Tractor Boy 



Again signs of colder weather towards the end of November on the 06z

As for the need for more rain, this part of the south west has had more than enough as the water table has barely dropped below the surface for several weeks. So much so that the dog and the kids are not allowed on the lawn as they'd get too muddy!
Mumbles, Swansea. 80m asl
polarwind
13 November 2023 12:38:53

We appear to be moving towards a drier, cooler and more settled period of weather with more of an anomalous NNW'ly flow circa 7-10 days as  the Azores ridge amplifies towards Iceland with some quite cold air to the NE. Winter chart watching season officially begins. 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Yes, interesting stuff. And charts that are much more reminiscent of the 60's and 70/80's than more recent years.
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Dave,Derby
tierradelfuego
13 November 2023 18:45:29
The HP to close out the month is still there on the 12z OP. It's a pretty stable option on the OP for the last day or so now, even if it tends to be top of thereabouts of the GEFS suite most runs...

Still on course to be close to 100mm down here for the month, but the above could stop that in its tracks during the final week.
Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS
Rainfall collector separated at ground level
Anemometer separated above roof level
WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Weather)
Axlbert
13 November 2023 21:03:50
Surprised how little interest on here considering the output, albeit towards the end of the runs... some beautiful fantasy charts to remind us what is still possible this winter if the stars align. Hopefully the Atlantic will blow itself out over the next fortnight and the suggested HP take control.
+1
Saint Snow
13 November 2023 21:27:44

Surprised how little interest on here considering the output, albeit towards the end of the runs... some beautiful fantasy charts to remind us what is still possible this winter if the stars align. Hopefully the Atlantic will blow itself out over the next fortnight and the suggested HP take control.

Originally Posted by: Axlbert 




Looks fun, doesn't it?

😀

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rob K
14 November 2023 00:07:12

Surprised how little interest on here considering the output, albeit towards the end of the runs... some beautiful fantasy charts to remind us what is still possible this winter if the stars align. Hopefully the Atlantic will blow itself out over the next fortnight and the suggested HP take control.

Originally Posted by: Axlbert 



Nothing very exciting, is there? Looks like HP sitting over the UK and giving some hopefully crisp and seasonal, but rather boring weather?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
14 November 2023 07:37:16
Some interesting Ops turning up now. Nothing dramatic yet in the ensembles so far though.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
14 November 2023 08:08:13
WX temp summary for week 1 continues the picture of slightly above average temps for Europe incl Britain, much above in Spain and very much below around the N Baltic. Colder weather spreads from the NE in week 2, this mainly affecting C Europe with the mountain chains (Alps, Carpathians, Julian Alps) nicely picked out as below freezing.  The rainfall pattern has stabilised on yesterday's forecast; week 1 with a broad band of rain Atlantic - Britain - C Europe - Turkey   and in week 2 splitting up into patches around a central dry area over Britain and France.

GFS Op - Storm Debi off to Denmark by tomorrow leaving a trough of LP behind which becomes focused Fri 17th 995mb Belgium. A weakening Atlantic LP then drifts in 995mb Clyde Mon 20th after which HP from the SW asserts itself 1030mb SW approaches Wed 22nd but with brisk NW'lies for E Britain. This drifts N-wards over the following week but still dominates Britain while an LP near Finland continues to draw in Arctic air - could just about graze the E coast. The final chart (Wed 29th, a long way off!) offers the tantalising possibility of a combination of that LP and another over Portugal bringing cold E-lies to England for the start of Dec.

ECM - similar to GFS until Wed 22nd when the HP stays out to the SW and in combination with an LP E of Iceland 960mb which has swallowed up that over Finland then proceeds to cover the whole of Britain with strong and rather cold NW-lies by Fri 24th.

GEFS - mostly on the cool side relative to norm until Sun 19th followed by 2 or 3 days milder, with good ens agreement. This is followed by a wide spread of forecasts; probably mild again around Fri 24th but tendency to colder by Wed 29th. To illustrate the spread, on e.g. Sun 26th on the S Coast, the op run is some 8C below norm and the control a similar amount above! Rain in short but heavy bursts through to Mon 20th followed by a long period in which few runs show any rain and those that do, not very much (with exceptions in the far W)

 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2

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