I'd wager that we'll end up with a dirty high rather than a cold and frosty one.

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Perhaps i should add that GEM treats the HP differently to both GFS and ECM, on Fri 24th it's over Germany with another cell near Portugal and Britain in a brisk SW-ly.

There's little agreement between the major models, all of which however put Britain on the fringe of any high pressure, albeit a different fringe, unlike yesterday when it was going to be centralised over Britain. So watch this space - my bet is on dry but breezy weather.

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I'll take that all day long especially going into December.. bit of frost and fog if the High pressure sits over us, but if it shifts west and up to Greenland (as per the last 3 GFS ops)😂... who knows?!

Decent GFS op run for colder weather as we head towards Dec. Let’s see if the PV ramps up to scupper any promise

Indeed. Slight late November 2010 vibes about the models just lately. Let's see if it's a trend that will grow.
 

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Im going with the opposite with the PV of doom setting up shop for the start of Winter.

Something like p5 on the 06z GEFS 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=5&ech=324&mode=0&carte=1&ext=0 

I saw a tweet from someone in the climate field saying that the latest ECM seasonal run showed a higher likelihood of a SSW in December.  Still a long way short of it being likely, but something to bear in mind.

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Nice to get some early interest. This is roughly the time of year when a severe wintry spell starts to be possible so tasty charts become more than a interest record bookeeping exercise. Anyway more and more members becoming interested in a northerly. Nothing desparately exciting yet, but its nice to be back in model watching mode.

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I think we could get to 200m.  Already 180 ! 

IIRC, it was around this time in November 2010 that the operational runs first began to pick up on the developments over Greenland which led to the freeze at the end of that month which then dominated almost all of December. I'm not expecting a repeat of 2010 this year, but what is presently being modelled for the latter part of this month is interesting to see nevertheless.

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That would be impressive 😁

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Seasonally appropriate cold snap end of next week?
Serious chance of bringing this in.

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Or a  Northerly Toppler with temps no lower then the coming 3-4 days, followed by a more flatter zonal pattern?
Place your bets 👍
 

00Z GFS isn’t far away from something rather interesting. ECM and GEM are, however. 

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WX charts holding the temp pattern relative to norm of cool NW Europe, very warm Spain and Caspian, a little above norm elsewhere, and in week2 less bullish about expanding the cold area though Britain esp Scotland does get cooler. The rainfall pattern continues to be unstable; week 1 much the same , dry in the Baltic and Spain and a broad band of rain between, but week 2 quite different from yesterday's dry prospect for Britain and France which  is replaced by heavy rain on Atlantic coastal areas with a tongue extending across NW Europe.

GFS Op - LP 1005mb running the Channel tomorrow with another off NW Scotland, the synoptics simplified as a larger depression tracks from mid Atlantic (980 mb Sat 18th) around the N of Britain and S-wards to Germany (1010mb Tue 21st). This is matched by a rise in pressure behind, up to 1035mb W of Ireland by Thu 23rd, not lasting, as the deep LP which has been a persistent feature of Scandinavian weather recently ramps up, 970 mb Sat 25th, introducing strong N-lies. These are boosted by a smaller LP from the Atlantic which gets caught up in the main flow 980mb N England Wed 29th, promising the first cold weather of the winter (but never pin your hopes on a GFS N-ly!). The final chart, Fri 1st, looks set for a repeat of Wed 29th.

ECM - like GFS to Tue 21st but then less extreme with the HP Thu 23rd further SW and then the Scandinavian LP less extensive, so more of a W/NW influence on the weather, cool but not Arctic.

GEM takes this a step further with the HP on the 23rd centred over Britain, slipping slowly E-wards but with enough influence to bring in air from the W/SW.

GEFS - temps mostly near norm, milder episodes possible Sun 19th and Fri 24th and trending cooler towards Dec, that strongly influenced by v cold op & control. later on A couple of bursts of rain at first for the S (17th & 19th), Scotland missing the first of these,  then mostly dry unlike WX. Snow row figures for Inverness approaching 50% around Wed 29th.

 

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Wonder if the term shortwave spoiler will make a comeback this winter!

GFS 6Z is rather different for the end of the month, with temperatures into the mid teens, 10C higher across the south than the 0Z!

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Laughable isn't it. It won't be the only time in the coming winter that the GFS does an about-turn.
My policy this coming winter is not to believe anything the charts show until its within 72 hours!!
For my sanity, I think that's a good idea.

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The respective 0z and 6z GFS runs have shown a shortwave spoilier (for the south) and a toppler on the 6z after a failed amplification attempt.
In any case all this is happening after 240 hours. 
Nothing to see here just yet. 😀
 

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My policy is to look at the ensembles and to not take any one run as Gospel. On this occasion the mean is not very different to the 0Z. The Ops run is very different and the Control is at the top end too. Is it an indication of the actual outcome? ,  time will tell 🙂

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GFS backs off with spoiler energy then GEM comes in on the 12Z with a Northerly special.

The red lights are out and the silly season has started 🙂

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I miss the Winter Optimism Index pointer.

 

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https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/archives/2023111512/gemnh-0-240.png?12 

I like it!

Its definitely popping up here and there as a scenario but I wouldn't bet my house on anything yet!  Early days though....

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The GFS control run is fairly decent for cold as well

Just like 2 years ago if the charts posted by Squish verifies. Had snow in Sheffield, with severe blizzards in the hills just to the W. Hallam moor recorded a max of -1C on 27 Nov, c.f, 3 C in Sheffield city centre.