Remove ads from site

Retron
19 November 2023 17:17:56
We're starting to see some seriously snowy members popping up in the GEFS now. Here's one, a holy grail Channel Low with widespread heavy snow in the south. And only 8 days away, what could possibly go wrong... 😁

(Silly season is well and truly upon us. It's nice to see it's coinciding with the beginning of winter, for once).

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/21/14838/gens_15_1_192oqc7.png
UserPostedImage 

UserPostedImage
https://images.meteociel.fr/im/2/3077/gensfr_15_2_192nkl6.png 
Leysdown, north Kent
White Meadows
19 November 2023 18:47:08
ECM goes billy big balls for 27th, huge parts of Scotland covered in a blanket of snow. 
 
David M Porter
19 November 2023 19:14:07
Very interesting ECM 12Z op!
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Quantum
19 November 2023 19:16:20
Ensembles are getting colder and colder with alot of options for some snowy features pushing into cold air.

Most interesting late November since 2010?

UserPostedImage

Just one option of course...
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
White Meadows
19 November 2023 19:54:23

Ensembles are getting colder and colder with alot of options for some snowy features pushing into cold air.

Most interesting late November since 2010?

Just one option of course...

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Well, perhaps not as that was a strong La Nina scenario. However we are able to draw comparisons like for like to November 2009 with its moderate El Nino. That was off the back of a VERY wet spell throughout Nov 09 and then the brutal prolonged bitter spell started early-mid December. 

Further details:
https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm 

 
Rob K
19 November 2023 20:41:43

Well, perhaps not as that was a strong La Nina scenario. However we are able to draw comparisons like for like to November 2009 with its moderate El Nino. That was off the back of a VERY wet spell throughout Nov 09 and then the brutal prolonged bitter spell started early-mid December. 

Further details:
https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm 

 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Given what early January 2010 delivered round here (the deepest snow since the 80s, 25cm on the road outside and a good foot or more on the common), I like the comparison. Jan 2010 was one of those rare occasions when absolutely everything came together.

ECM is encouraging at 240hr although any excitement is tempered by the lack of cross-model support (and the block looks a bit less convincing on the ECM than on GFS)
 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
UncleAlbert
19 November 2023 23:15:54

Well, perhaps not as that was a strong La Nina scenario. However we are able to draw comparisons like for like to November 2009 with its moderate El Nino. That was off the back of a VERY wet spell throughout Nov 09 and then the brutal prolonged bitter spell started early-mid December. 

Further details:
https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm 

 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



November 2009 brought the dreadful floods in Cumbria claiming the life of the heroic PC Barker who was patrolling a flood stricken bridge in Workington which tragically collapsed under him.  The weather was already starting to get colder at the end of the month, heralding what was to come.  So yes maybe it will be interesting to compare with this year by the time we get half way through December.
Rob K
19 November 2023 23:16:00
18Z GFS is also "interesting" with two Channel snow events in quick succession, Saturday and Tuesday. Will they still be there in the morning?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
CField
20 November 2023 06:11:47
Still a little way off but looking at GFS models this morning get the feeling we could be in for a December 38 set up or alternatively a Dec 88 one...this coming winter will be either black or white  ....
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
squish
20 November 2023 07:32:23
Dec 2010 more like it ;)

Bit of flip flopping around as to be expected. GEM looks quite tasty this morning and DWD seems to have aligned to a degree

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/run/gemnh-0-168.png?0 

https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/archives/2023112000/iconnh-0-180.png?0 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Rob K
20 November 2023 07:34:48
GFS and ECM both wobbling away from anything 2010-ish. A long way to go before I’m convinced. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
20 November 2023 08:16:16
WX temps show most of Europe changing from temps just above norm to just below norm. In absolute terms, the freezing area moving SW-wards from Russia only makes slow progress, even in week 2 only covering Scandinavia (as has been the case for several weeks) and now E Germany and Alps with a tiny 'blob' over the Highlands. Rain/snow circling Scandinavia in week 1 (N Sea, Alps, Greece, Urals) but back for Britain in week2 with extension to France and Italy.

GFS Op - current Lp moving away slowly SW-wards reaching Turkey Tue 22nd. Hp establishing over SW Britain 1030mb Thu 24th moving first north then south and allowing N-ly winds to graze the East Coast until Tue 28th  but no serious Arctic plunge. LP then drifts in from the Atlantic 1000mb Scotland Fri 1st with some S-ly influence on the rest of Britain. This LP fills slightly but settles as a shallow trough affecting England & Wales (and France) by Wed 6th.

ECM - agrees with GFS until Tue 28th but then that LP stays in mid-Atlantic and HP establishes over England with NW-lies for Scotland by Thu 30th.

GEM - keeps the HP well to the W, bringing in LP off the Atlantic which by Mon 27th combines with Scandinavian LP, hence very cold NE-lies for all continuing for that week though decreasing in strength

GEFS - temp rising to mild Thu 24th then an abrupt drop in virtually all ens members to about 5C below norm with mean rising steadily to norm by Wed 6th, matched by op & control at first though there is quite a lot of disagreement from 1st Dec. Small amounts of rain occurring randomly in only some runs from Sun 26th ( a few days earlier in Scotland). Pptn likely to fall as snow around Sun 26th in N/NE Scotland, but not heavily.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
idj20
20 November 2023 08:42:25

GFS and ECM both wobbling away from anything 2010-ish. A long way to go before I’m convinced. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Anything to give us a break from the Atlantic assault will do me fine. Currently pis . . . pouring down once again as I type this, so an extended period of dry weather will be most welcome. 
Folkestone Harbour. 
ballamar
20 November 2023 10:31:29
Is there a weekend problem with GFS? Seen it before where ii goes a little ott on certain scenarios. 
On topic still looks like long term there is decent wintry weather potential
Rob K
20 November 2023 10:48:25

Is there a weekend problem with GFS? Seen it before where ii goes a little ott on certain scenarios. 
On topic still looks like long term there is decent wintry weather potential

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



For Scotland maybe but all looking rather flat and boring for us down here with a quick return to westerlies. First GFS trip up the garden path of the season?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gusty
20 November 2023 10:55:35

Is there a weekend problem with GFS? Seen it before where ii goes a little ott on certain scenarios. 
On topic still looks like long term there is decent wintry weather potential

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



and that's where it usually stays. 😀
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Taylor1740
20 November 2023 10:58:42
Not so great on the GFS 6z, I think the problem being that pressure is too high to the South so the cold air is staying locked up over Scandinavia.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
White Meadows
Brian Gaze
20 November 2023 13:06:12
ICON-D2 is now running on TWO. I should have it plugged into the chart viewer later today or tomorrow.

UserPostedImage
 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gandalf The White
20 November 2023 13:51:31

GFS Operational was a mild outlier:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=2&bw=1&geoid=49069 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Not according to that graph it wasn’t. It’s a milder option for 2-3 days out of 16, but never beyond the range of possible outcomes shown by the ensemble suite, so never an ‘outlier’ (which means outside the range of the ensemble suite).
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


fairweather
20 November 2023 14:04:03

Its certainly a welcome change to be on the sillycoaster this early on in the winter!

Unfortunately looks like any snow is mostly going to be limited to Scotland at this stage, but 'stuff coming into cold air' could bring something more widespread!
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I'm pretty sure that the middle of December was pretty cold in the S.E last year, probably the coldest spell of last winter which was mild here. Could somebody confirm that because my weather station data got corrupted that month.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Retron
20 November 2023 14:24:10

I'm pretty sure that the middle of December was pretty cold in the S.E last year, probably the coldest spell of last winter which was mild here. Could somebody confirm that because my weather station data got corrupted that month.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


I went to Heathrow in the middle of December last year, for an aborted attempt to go on holiday. (I stayed overnight at the Sofitel, my eye "popped" and I had to cancel the trip early on the morning that I should have flown to Japan.)

I came back the following day, and although I was in agony I do remember seeing some quite snowy scenes out and about. In both cases, going there and coming back, the settled snow didn't make it much beyond the North Downs, and there was nothing on the ground over here, aside from a few bits of slush one morning. There was, however, a fair bit of very cold rain and sleet!

These are the temperatures from my weather station, copied from Wunderground (hence the US date format). It actually looks like quite an impressive cold spell... lack of snow aside. I think I'd have appreciated it much more had I not been in pain throughout (and losing a holiday as a result).

12/7/2022 4.2 °C -0.4 °C
12/8/2022 2.9 °C -2.1 °C
12/9/2022 3.0 °C -2.4 °C
12/10/2022 2.8 °C -4.0 °C
12/11/2022 2.6 °C -0.5 °C
12/12/2022 2.7 °C -2.9 °C
12/13/2022 2.6 °C -4.1 °C
12/14/2022 2.2 °C -1.7 °C
12/15/2022 0.9 °C -4.4 °C
12/16/2022 2.4 °C -4.7 °C
12/17/2022 4.3 °C -4.8 °C
Leysdown, north Kent
Spring Sun Winter Dread
20 November 2023 14:39:29
I will always remember last December as a cold and harsh one because my neighbour's pipes burst after a severe frost,  something which would have been inconceivable as happening over most recent winters.
The period from around 5th-18th was very cold indeed , you would struggle to find much colder in the last decade or so frankly and there were plenty of subzero CET days in there 

It will probably end up somewhat lost to history though as was mostly dry with snowfall totals not coming to much (there was some in my area but nothing historically notable in any way) and the last 2 weeks were very mild which pushed the CET for the whole month into the "below average but not exceptionally so" category. 
The rest of the winter also unremarkable although there were a few more very cold nights at the end of Jan.
White Meadows
20 November 2023 14:59:24

Not according to that graph it wasn’t. It’s a milder option for 2-3 days out of 16, but never beyond the range of possible outcomes shown by the ensemble suite, so never an ‘outlier’ (which means outside the range of the ensemble suite).

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


It never the less rises 8 degrees warmer away from the suite average not once but twice. So not representative of the most likely outcome according to the graph. 
Gusty
20 November 2023 14:59:37
Last December was incredibly frustrating. 

Sunday 11th December here in Folkestone was a day that gave 8mm of solid rain. At 5pm excitement started to escalate as the temperature dropped back to 2.6c and some sleet appeared. It was temporary. By evening the temperature bounced back up to 4c and the rain continued to fall.

10 miles west was a different matter entirely. At Lyminge 8cm of soft powder snow laid as fresh as the day if fell until the thaw 7 days later. In stark contrast to Etchinghill 2 miles east of Lyminge that saw rain. The boundary was that striking! A line could be drawn. No snow in the car park at my work depot. Nearly 1cm of snow in the Stop 24 car park 500 yards away !

I worked 3 days that week at the main office in West Kent where 10cm fell. I enjoyed the seasonal week of Christmas lights, dark days, mince pies and lunchtime walks across the snowfields. Coming back home every evening was depressing watching the festive white landscape suddenly turning mucky brown and grey.

Back to the models, its looking like a colder weekend with frosts and wintry showers across Scotland and some northern and western coasts. We'll probably still manage 7-8c down here in the deep south before it all topples and the atlantic rolls back over early next week.

 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Remove ads from site

Ads