theweatheroutlook

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AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
20 November 2023 15:57:35

I'm pretty sure that the middle of December was pretty cold in the S.E last year, probably the coldest spell of last winter which was mild here. Could somebody confirm that because my weather station data got corrupted that month.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



Yes, it was cold here but not much snow. I don't have the exact figures, but I remember at least 5 ice days (3 of them consecutive), and for more than an a week the temperature didn't rise above 1*C. 
Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
+1
Retron
20 November 2023 16:08:24
I see the disagreements continue even at T+96 this afternoon - GFS has pulled everything back west as compared to the 6z, with cold air plunging south on Friday, MetO has it much further east. ICON is much closer to GFS than MetO.

EDIT: Now that the 850s for MetO are available, the cold air (sub -4 850s) clips eastern areas on Saturday, before moving away on Sunday.

All models now show cold air over Scotland to end the week.

 
Leysdown, north Kent
Quantum
20 November 2023 16:12:01
Main model disagreement seems to be that deep (albeit weak) cold core low that sneaks underneath the block (or perhaps not?). Its an interesting feature and its behaviour could both positively or negitively impact the longevity of the cold spell.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
20 November 2023 17:40:03
Lots of overnight frosts, not least in the south, over the weekend https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhr.aspx 

As for synoptic models, the two left standing which promise serious cold weather for England (as opposed to just Scotland) are ICON and whatever Meteo Group (BBC) use.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Rob K
20 November 2023 18:06:44

Yes, it was cold here but not much snow. I don't have the exact figures, but I remember at least 5 ice days (3 of them consecutive), and for more than an a week the temperature didn't rise above 1*C. 

Originally Posted by: AJ* 


Yes, it coincided with having to have the heating off to have our flooring fitted It was 8C indoors at one stage.

We had a dusting (and I do mean dusting) of snow which stayed on the ground for an entire week. Very frustrating as if we had had a decent covering it would have stuck around all week.

Anyway, not much chance of a repeat if UKMO is on the money. I see it sends "our" northerly all the way to Turkey on the 12Z.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
squish
20 November 2023 18:53:33
Not a bad ECM and distinct similarities in general to the GFS.  Not a dramatic sudden switch but more of a slower evolution into a colder scenario.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2023112012/ECH1-216.GIF 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
20 November 2023 18:56:09
ECM with some significant HLB tonight.  The models are sniffing something quite what yet to be determined. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
20 November 2023 19:00:27

Not a bad ECM and distinct similarities in general to the GFS.  Not a dramatic sudden switch but more of a slower evolution into a colder scenario.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2023112012/ECH1-216.GIF 

Originally Posted by: squish 


Yes it keeps the UK mostly on the cold side of the block throughout, which is nice.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
20 November 2023 19:35:08

Yes, it was cold here but not much snow. I don't have the exact figures, but I remember at least 5 ice days (3 of them consecutive), and for more than an a week the temperature didn't rise above 1*C. 

Originally Posted by: AJ* 

We were building our annexe and had a few days in December when the bricklayer had to cover the walls with sacking to keep the frost off. Then the weekend the roof went on, 10th December, we were forecast snow but didn’t get anything more than a flurry.  That was one time I really didn’t want snow. We did get a good fall of snow on 10th March this year, which was great, as we’d moved in by then and were very toasty warm.  
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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White Meadows
21 November 2023 06:16:47
A series of weakening Atlantic topplers from GFS this morning. Nothing really to write about but at least the soil-sodden southern half of the country sees some prolonged dryness much welcomed. Perhaps one can take to a country walk without sinking. 

 
+1
CField
21 November 2023 06:30:38
Like the GEM this morning ....potential to drag some colder air in from the east and Spain look set for some wet weather. 
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Rob K
21 November 2023 07:36:59
It's looking fairly clear now that the more optimistic modelling of a proper cold blast next weekend was wide of the mark, as it heads east into Europe and the high rapidly sinks.

Still a chance of some kind of amplification bringing an easterly influence but it's looking like the best we can realistically hope for is high pressure settling over the UK which would at least keep us dry.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
Retron
21 November 2023 07:43:01

It's looking fairly clear now that the more optimistic modelling of a proper cold blast next weekend was wide of the mark, as it heads east into Europe and the high rapidly sinks.

Still a chance of some kind of amplification bringing an easterly influence but it's looking like the best we can realistically hope for is high pressure settling over the UK which would at least keep us dry.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Indeed, it seems like a blended solution between the ECM and GFS of a few days ago is what will happen - as has happened many times before, of course.

I'm also mindful of the way that to me at least, any cold seldom arrives with a single event, it's more like the tide coming in rather than a single massive wave.

The good news is that for many of us a drier outlook beckons. It will at least feel seasonal and it'll help the last leaves come off the trees down here.
Leysdown, north Kent
doctormog
21 November 2023 07:44:18
Anything that avoids easterly garbage would be good. We are already at 115% of the long term average November monthly rainfall total here after around 200% last month and that was generally with an easterly influence. Cool and more settled would fine.

Having said that it’s never been overly mild here this month but Wednesday and Thursday May change that before the wintry showers on Friday. The weather can be a funny old thing!

A hint of winter on Friday in some northern parts: 

UserPostedImage 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 November 2023 07:57:35
WX temps for week 1 now below norm for all of Europe, and the freezing weather from the NE becoming entrenched in C Europe and the Balkans. NW coasts of Europe incl Britain not yet down to that level, but forecast at the next least cold level in week 2. Pptn in two main areas, the N Atlantic off Britain & Norway, and SE Europe in week 1, both areas slipping a little SE-wards in week 2 and the really dry weather is in Spain - France - Germany by then. Arpege shows a definite increase in snow cover for SE Europe from about Sun 26th.

GFS Op - HP in the SW approaches 1035mb Wed 22nd translating into a N-S ridge Fri 24th with N-ly winds just grazing the E coast. This ridge 'topples' over the following week to lie along the coast of France and Holland Sun 3rd, weakening as an Atlantic trough crosses Britain Tue 5th but back in place Thu 7th. Strong SW-lies for Scotland whenever the ridge topples (which appears to contradict WX above) 

FAX puts the HP directly over England Fri 24th with a cold front which has come south being pushed to the W of Ireland.

ECM  like GFS to Sun 26th but then holds the N-S ridge over the Atlantic with LP from Iceland slipping SE-wards Wed 29th introducing cold NW/N-ly winds instead of SW-lies.

GEM also holds the HP over the Atlantic but with a centre N of Scotland so by end-of-run Fri 1st pressure is low over Europe and England experience light NE-lies.

GEFS - after increasing mildness this week, a big drop in temp Fri 24th to some 5C below norm. Agreement between ens members begins to break up a couple of days later. The mean gradually recovers to norm by Sun 3rd (recovery more rapid in Scotland, by Wed 29th, and never really cold in the far SW) but with a spread of +/-7C by then (just like the differences developing between the main models). Op and control suggest separate brief milder spells Wed 29th and Mon 4th respectively. Small amounts of rain in a few runs from Sun 26th, but very little expected until towards the end on Thu 7th and that most likely in far NW.

Snow row figures high only for Inverness 24/25th but minimal pptn so perhaps just a dusting.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
21 November 2023 08:45:03

A series of weakening Atlantic topplers from GFS this morning. Nothing really to write about but at least the soil-sodden southern half of the country sees some prolonged dryness much welcomed. Perhaps one can take to a country walk without sinking. 

 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

It’s not just the South that’s sodden. Scotland hasn’t dried out and we in the East Midlands still have ponds in fields from the flooding of Babet. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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White Meadows
21 November 2023 08:56:57
ECM still hinting at something more interesting for cold lovers for the turn of the month. 
 Once the jet realigns after the first ridge collapse we may continue to see sporadic eye candy until then. 
Ally Pally Snowman
21 November 2023 08:57:47
ECM and GEM still very blocked this morning.  GFS losing the signal a little bit. But still plenty of room for optimism this morning for a cold/coldish start to winter.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
21 November 2023 08:59:12

ECM and GEM still very blocked this morning.  GFS losing the signal a little bit. But still plenty of room for optimism this morning for a cold/coldish start to winter.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



hopefully no sinking feeling!
The Beast from the East
21 November 2023 09:39:38

ECM and GEM still very blocked this morning.  GFS losing the signal a little bit. But still plenty of room for optimism this morning for a cold/coldish start to winter.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



I have long given up on the chase for southern sea level snow, but would be grateful for some dry and settled weather, and a frost! When I was a kid, we used to have frosts in October. Now that seems rarer than a non corrupt Tory MP
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Hungry Tiger
21 November 2023 10:18:34

I have long given up on the chase for southern sea level snow, but would be grateful for some dry and settled weather, and a frost! When I was a kid, we used to have frosts in October. Now that seems rarer than a non corrupt Tory MP
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Frosts in October in the 1970s were quite normal.  Incredible how those have gone now.  🙂 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Brian Gaze
21 November 2023 10:39:50
 Temperatures here still haven't dipped below 0C this autumn. It's not a foregone conclusion that it will happen before December.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Retron
21 November 2023 10:48:40

Temperatures here still haven't dipped below 0C this autumn. It's not a foregone conclusion that it will happen before December.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Likewise, although it's not unusual these days to get into December before seeing an air frost. More unusually, there haven't even been any ground frosts this autumn here - no need to scrape the car.

It's no surprise to see that yet again we're in the top 5% warmest days ever recorded at the moment. Such things would have been newsworthy not so many years ago, now it's just taken for granted.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2023/daily_meantemp_cet_2023.png 

UserPostedImage
Leysdown, north Kent
White Meadows
21 November 2023 10:58:49
Lots of ridging becoming a recurring feature in most models. At this rate I think it would be fair to expect some sort of intensity to a half decent Northerly by early December. 

Don’t worry frost lovers, it’ll come. 
Saint Snow
21 November 2023 10:59:24
We've had a few [at least ground] frosts - needing to scrape the car, and a couple with a white frost of grass/leaves.

Did wonders for the leaf colour of my big Norwegian Maple

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

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