theweatheroutlook

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speckledjim
21 November 2023 11:10:22

Temperatures here still haven't dipped below 0C this autumn. It's not a foregone conclusion that it will happen before December.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Likewise here
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
White Meadows
21 November 2023 11:44:26
We’ve had 2 frosts on the south coast, one last month and one this month. Not sure it’s been the big mild affair for everyone. 
Russwirral
21 November 2023 11:56:04

Lots of ridging becoming a recurring feature in most models. At this rate I think it would be fair to expect some sort of intensity to a half decent Northerly by early December. 

Don’t worry frost lovers, it’ll come. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



I agree, but would add more - I think the charts are firming up on a Scandinavian block, early December could be very cold and dry for some.  Given the very low anomalies currently forecast for Scandinavia.

Each of the last few runs, we have seen plenty of stalling systems over the UK.   I wouldnt be surprised if we start to see a few silly runs soon, with a few decent very cold easterly winds in the mix.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 November 2023 11:59:25

I agree, but would add more - I think the charts are firming up on a Scandinavian block, early December could be very cold and dry for some.  Given the very low anomalies currently forecast for Scandinavia.

Each of the last few runs, we have seen plenty of stalling systems over the UK.   I wouldnt be surprised if we start to see a few silly runs soon, with a few decent very cold easterly winds in the mix.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



Never mind the forecast, Scandinavia and particularly Norway has had temps way below average for at least a month by now
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Rob K
21 November 2023 13:10:23

I have long given up on the chase for southern sea level snow, but would be grateful for some dry and settled weather, and a frost! When I was a kid, we used to have frosts in October. Now that seems rarer than a non corrupt Tory MP
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


We had a couple of early frosts this year, 15th and 16th of October both saw air frosts here IIRC. Earliest ones for a while. We've only had a couple more ground frosts since then though.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
Brian Gaze
21 November 2023 13:32:15
Please keep politics out of this thread.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+2
squish
21 November 2023 16:07:38
Seems like a stronger trend for a block to the NE on the 12z’s thus far 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
squish
21 November 2023 16:09:20
https://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2023112112/UN120-21.GIF?21-17 

love this chart! 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
ballamar
21 November 2023 16:25:54
The route the GFS op is taking makes me think there will be a few snowy/cold ENS this evening

definite split from 28th on the GEFS. Main runs siding with warmer 850’s
Russwirral
21 November 2023 17:35:56


GFS this evening has all the ingredients of the makings of a very notable cold spell...  we just havent had our jackpot run yet...

 

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
The Beast from the East
21 November 2023 18:37:56

Seems like a stronger trend for a block to the NE on the 12z’s thus far 

Originally Posted by: squish 



Yes, the famous Murr sausage is back. Shame he doesnt post anymore
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
21 November 2023 18:40:12

GFS this evening has all the ingredients of the makings of a very notable cold spell...  we just havent had our jackpot run yet...

 

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



I'd agree with this assesment. Interesting 500hpa pattern, but the pieces are not quite falling in the right places yet
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
White Meadows
21 November 2023 19:31:58

https://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2023112112/UN120-21.GIF?21-17 

love this chart! 

Originally Posted by: squish 

 

That will surely bring some brutal cold into Eastern Europe and far south into the Balkans. 
Scandinavia has also been way below normal for the time of year. 

El Nino at play maybe. 
any thoughts on the Strat? Is there anyone with a quick link to the strat forecast?
Rob K
21 November 2023 19:58:01
ECM seems to be stuck in loop mode. The 192, 216 and 240 hour charts are virtually identical to the 48, 72 and 96hr ones!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
White Meadows
21 November 2023 20:08:03
ECM wobbles back in course too.
Certainly going to have that shock to the system feel by Sunday:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49909&model=ecm&var=202&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 
Gusty
21 November 2023 20:34:13

ECM wobbles back in course too.
Certainly going to have that shock to the system feel by Sunday:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49909&model=ecm&var=202&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



I think we'll manage down here with temps around 7-8c and sunshine in light breezes. 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Saint Snow
21 November 2023 21:15:54

Yes, the famous Murr sausage is back. Shame he doesnt post anymore
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Another driven off by a certain member (you can guess who, Geoff...)

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
squish
21 November 2023 21:59:31
Its a notable Med storm developing over the weekend ...with copious snowfall for the alps...
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Rob K
21 November 2023 22:20:48
GFS pub run getting all pubby on us again.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Russwirral
21 November 2023 22:28:00

I'd agree with this assesment. Interesting 500hpa pattern, but the pieces are not quite falling in the right places yet

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



The timing of these posts was impeccable

Great run tonight 😄😄

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
White Meadows
21 November 2023 23:00:28
18z been in the Carlsberg tonight. Fun to look at, nothing more than that… fun for now. 
ballamar
21 November 2023 23:05:55

18z been in the Carlsberg tonight. Fun to look at, nothing more than that… fun for now. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



sometimes prefer looking at the potential opposed to thee actual outcome!
David M Porter
21 November 2023 23:43:42
Wasn't really expecting to see what the GFS 18z has produced. One wonders if tomorrow morning's 00z op will show the same or a similar evolution!
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gandalf The White
21 November 2023 23:44:00

The timing of these posts was impeccable

Great run tonight 😄😄

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



Indeed.  Looking at the charts evolving I was reminded of a couple of points that Darren (Retron) made as that famous December 2010 pattern (and yes, I remember his comments absolutely clearly).  

One was that we needed to be looking for WAA that was going due north or even slightly west of north; when the surge has an eastward component it generally means the jet is in control or is going to blast the heights away.

The second point was that the 2010 evolution had a double surge of WAA; it was the combination that locked the pattern in place.

The 18z has that same evolution. Let’s see if it’s repeated over the coming days.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Saint Snow
22 November 2023 00:02:52
Oooh! That's some eye candy there! Just kept getting better.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

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