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BJBlake
22 November 2023 00:41:05

sometimes prefer looking at the potential opposed to thee actual outcome!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Its like the advent period before Christmas - the anticipation is often even more exciting than the day...

which all serves to remind me of the Ian McCaskill forecasts before the notable cold spell of February 1991, which heralded the coming cold for a week before it arrived, but the arrival was just the start - as it got better and better for snow fans in the SE.   

Let’s enjoy some fabulous eye-candy runs - as I for one had all but written off seeing such a winters cold spell as 1991 - well certainly this early, with all the relentless and overt mildness!!
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
UncleAlbert
22 November 2023 00:45:11

Wasn't really expecting to see what the GFS 18z has produced. One wonders if tomorrow morning's 00z op will show the same or a similar evolution!

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



Well the ECM ens and to a certain extent the GEFS have been throwing up a cluster of flat sub -5 snorkelers on recent runs as we go into December so not a total surprise to get some operational manifestations of this type!
Brian Gaze
22 November 2023 06:26:05
GFS 00Z going for a "full fat" easterly next week.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=00&charthour=141&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM 


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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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ballamar
22 November 2023 06:33:13
Well if these runs don’t pique the interest. Chance of a decent easterly - where looking at the 850’s and precipitation is pointless. Will become colder and colder if the pattern stays for a few days. 
Tim A
22 November 2023 06:52:20

Well if these runs don’t pique the interest. Chance of a decent easterly - where looking at the 850’s and precipitation is pointless. Will become colder and colder if the pattern stays for a few days. 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


People always say this and I don't really get it.  It can easily become warmer too as warmer air can get sucked up from the SE too.  Good easterly spells are usually a result of everything being right and getting hit by a cold pool for a short amount of time. 
In November and Early December more often than not Easterlies are just not cold enough as the chances as even less likely that the smaller amount of cold around aligns with the UK.  
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
+1
Zubzero
22 November 2023 07:11:54

People always say this and I don't really get it.  It can easily become warmer too as warmer air can get sucked up from the SE too.  Good easterly spells are usually a result of everything being right and getting hit by a cold pool for a short amount of time. 
In November and Early December more often than not Easterlies are just not cold enough as the chances as even less likely that the smaller amount of cold around aligns with the UK.  

Originally Posted by: Tim A 



The end off the  ECM run is cold as the initial cold shot has dropped down from the North. 

Most easterly spells end up dull and-or dry for most anyways, decent ones with troughs-bands of snow moving east to west are very rare. 
roadrunnerajn
22 November 2023 07:15:36
After watching the met office’s Deep Dive last night, I got the impression that they are leaning towards a wet and windy December with the jet being further north than it was in October.
The reason they gave for this are the global drivers in the Pacific and Indian Ocean.
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
White Meadows
22 November 2023 07:16:13
The continent & Scandy have been well below average already, and are forecast to dip further next week so imported cold pools wouldn’t be an issue. It’s whether we get advection from the necessary quarter. 

some -10’s creeping into the ensembles. The Gfs Op 850’s spike mild at the end but think it’s lost the plot as surface temps continue to plunge. 
 
BJBlake
22 November 2023 07:25:24

People always say this and I don't really get it.  It can easily become warmer too as warmer air can get sucked up from the SE too.  Good easterly spells are usually a result of everything being right and getting hit by a cold pool for a short amount of time. 
In November and Early December more often than not Easterlies are just not cold enough as the chances as even less likely that the smaller amount of cold around aligns with the UK.  

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

There’s some validity in the statement - whilst you are right patterns can vary and spoil the fun with subtle shifts in the wind/ air mass movements, but at this time of the year, cold is cumulative. If the pattern remains constant, the cold embeds and is heavier than warm air, so harder to shift from incoming fronts. Moreover, the ground and sea gets colder, and there is more chance of precipitation falling as snow to ground level. One observation of patterns these days compared to my childhood, which may be more apparent than real, is that patterns are moving faster (perhaps due to increased atmospheric heat), so there seems less frequency of opportunities for cold to pool, and embed - as it used to do in decades past. But it still can and does on occasion. When it does - incoming Chanel lows and eventual pattern shifts can be quite snowy.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
nsrobins
22 November 2023 07:26:30

After watching the met office’s Deep Dive last night, I got the impression that they are leaning towards a wet and windy December with the jet being further north than it was in October.
The reason they gave for this are the global drivers in the Pacific and Indian Ocean.

Originally Posted by: roadrunnerajn 


If that doesn’t ignite full ramp mode nothing will 😂😂
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
22 November 2023 07:28:32
Rob K
22 November 2023 07:30:55

One observation of patterns these days compared to my childhood, which may be more apparent than real, is that patterns are moving faster (perhaps due to increased atmospheric heat), so there seems less frequency of opportunities for cold to pool, and embed - as it used to do in decades past. But it still can and does on occasion. When it does - incoming Chanel lows and eventual pattern shifts can be quite snowy.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 



I’ve frequently seen the opposite observation on here - that patterns last longer and we get “stuck in a rut” for longer periods. That seems more true from my casual observation,  that I have no idea if it is. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
BJBlake
22 November 2023 07:43:00

After watching the met office’s Deep Dive last night, I got the impression that they are leaning towards a wet and windy December with the jet being further north than it was in October.
The reason they gave for this are the global drivers in the Pacific and Indian Ocean.

Originally Posted by: roadrunnerajn 



I presume they are talking about the ENSO (strong El-Nino) and the MJO?  This was widely predicted to cause significant influence over the northern hemisphere winter this year - winter 23/24. This means a stronger jet stream: Whether that’s good or bad depends on its amplification, but settled cold pooling is less likely. Short cold snaps more likely, but a strong west to east flow most likely.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
doctormog
22 November 2023 07:45:58
The (GEFS) ensemble data look interesting this morning I think. 

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/graphe_ens3.php?clim=1&x=&y=&ext=1&run=0&lat=57.2&lon=-2.25&runpara=0 

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Other locations are available!
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
22 November 2023 08:05:43
In the WX charts the cold air from the NE, far from backing off, is expanding, backed up by extreme cold in the far NE, and by week 2 freezing weather covers all continental Europe except Spain (still just about warm) and Britain (nearly there, freezing patches on the hills as far south as mid-Wales). Pptn, some of which will be snow, in week 1 mainly through eastern Med and Black Sea, drifting S in week 2; also some around the N Sea in week 1 replaced by heavy rain trying to move in to the W of Ireland in week 2. Becoming very dry over France and all points NE-wards.

GFS Op - by Sat the current HP to the SW has moved a little N-wards and in combination with LP in E Baltic is streaming Arctic air down into W Europe, just missing Britain; but as the HP then moves to N Norway (with a small depression in Biscay) the gate is open for a persistent easterly from a cold Europe setting up over Britain for a week from Wed 29th. Eventually this switches to the SE and sets the scene for an Atlantic/ Continental battle Fri 8th (it looks as if the Atlantic will win).

GB News says that Scotland will have heavy snow on Sun 3rd, or so the notifications which pop up on my phone tell me.

ECM - the easterly starts a day or two later (after a few days of nondescript HP) and affects S Britain rather than the whole.

GEM - less committed to an E-ly; it appears as a NE-ly  Thu/Fri  30th/1st but then switches back to N-lies grazing the E coast.

GEFS - becoming cold Fri 24th and staying well below norm through to Fri 8th with good ens agreement (lowest in first days of Dec, about 7C below norm), Scotland recovering at end of run. Small amounts of (probably) snow in the few runs which show any pptn, even on the S Coast, (A little rain in only the far SW in most runs for Mon 27th)

JET in various positions to N of Britain to Mon 27th then disappearing for a few days before steadily building up and very strong over France Wed 6th, at which point it starts looping, but looks like regaining its S-ly position.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
squish
22 November 2023 09:29:23
For those in favour of the colder solution the ICON 06z is moving that way more solidly now

 https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/archives/2023112206/iconnh-0-120.png?6 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Quantum
22 November 2023 09:31:32
Keep am eye on the upper level patern. The isobars at the surface rearange to 'fit' to the upper pattern. Northerlies/easterlies at 500hpa rapidly downwell to the surface - it takes days not weeks like the strat.
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Taylor1740
22 November 2023 10:28:05

I’ve frequently seen the opposite observation on here - that patterns last longer and we get “stuck in a rut” for longer periods. That seems more true from my casual observation,  that I have no idea if it is. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


that's my observation also given the long dry periods followed by long wet periods we have seen in recent years suggesting patterns are getting more "stuck in a rut" than before.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
+1
The Beast from the East
22 November 2023 11:14:42
GFS 06z. Cold pool looks pitiful. I am guessing cloudy and cold drizzle. Awful
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
idj20
22 November 2023 11:16:44

For those in favour of the colder solution the ICON 06z is moving that way more solidly now

 https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/archives/2023112206/iconnh-0-120.png?6 

Originally Posted by: squish 



That looks pretty wet with yet more rain as well as feeling colder to add to the misery. I was hoping for an extended break from the rain but that seems to be fading away. 
Folkestone Harbour. 
Taylor1740
22 November 2023 11:43:55

GFS 06z. Cold pool looks pitiful. I am guessing cloudy and cold drizzle. Awful

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


agreed, I don't think it will amount to much even if the synoptics play out as GFZ suggests which I highly doubt anyway. It's either just too early in the season or the deep cold air simply isn't there anymore even though Scandinavia has been very cold recently. If we at least get a dry spell with some seasonal frosts that will be something at least.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
White Meadows
22 November 2023 11:45:27
Still looks game on for a huge improvement on recent conditions for huge swathes of the country. Not sure what all the misery is about. 
The Atlantic can go to sleep for a couple of weeks that’s fine by me! 
 
+1
moomin75
22 November 2023 12:33:31
Just a brief post from me (the new, more sedate and considered Moomin compared to previous years).

My thoughts? Well, beggars can't be choosers in my view. We seem to be approaching a drying and cooling period, with some seasonable conditions looking likely. 
Be that a wintry Nirvana or just some dry, calm and cold early winter conditions is anyone's guess, but at least a temporary end to the Atlantic onslaught looks most likely, and as far as I'm concerned, that'll do just fine for early December.
Whatever the winter brings will be for future threads, of course, but I get a sneaky feeling we may have some periods of interest this coming winter, and that will also do just fine!
 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
+1
Rob K
22 November 2023 12:43:40
Snow rows are ticking upwards on the GEFS 6Z but still never more than a 1 in 6 chance for London, barring a brief 26% chance next Wednesday.

Nothing too cold at the moment, but a chance of maxima around 3C which aren't seen too often these days and are low enough for some wintry surprises.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
Quantum
22 November 2023 13:51:57

Just a brief post from me (the new, more sedate and considered Moomin compared to previous years).

My thoughts? Well, beggars can't be choosers in my view. We seem to be approaching a drying and cooling period, with some seasonable conditions looking likely. 
Be that a wintry Nirvana or just some dry, calm and cold early winter conditions is anyone's guess, but at least a temporary end to the Atlantic onslaught looks most likely, and as far as I'm concerned, that'll do just fine for early December.
Whatever the winter brings will be for future threads, of course, but I get a sneaky feeling we may have some periods of interest this coming winter, and that will also do just fine!
 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Its legitimately very cold for the time of year. Models have 3-5C on most days in my area for potentially weeks. That's an extended cold spell albeit not a severe one. And I suspect the temps will fall lower than that as cold air gets entrenched into Europe. While this doesn't look particularly snowy yet (things can quickly change) it will be definitely seasonal with cold days and frosty nights.

 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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