theweatheroutlook

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four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
22 November 2023 21:08:38
   Averages\Extremes for the month of December 2010
 
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Average temperature     = -0.4°C
 Average humidity        = 91%
 Average dewpoint        = -1.7°C
 Average barometer       = 1014.8 mb
 Average windspeed       = 5.7 mph
 Average gustspeed       = 8.0 mph
 Average direction       = 274° ( W )
 Rainfall for month      = 33.4 mm
 Rainfall for year       = 861.5 mm
 Maximum rain per minute = 0.6 mm on day 16 at time 07:42
 Maximum temperature     = 7.2°C on day 10 at time 18:39
 Minimum temperature     = -12.3°C on day 21 at time 04:18
 Maximum humidity        = 99% on day 31 at time 09:12
 Minimum humidity        = 67% on day 06 at time 06:07
 Maximum dewpoint        = 6.5°C on day 29 at time 13:41
 Minimum dewpoint        = -13.8°C on day 21 at time 019:44
 Maximum pressure        = 1038.1 mb on day 14 at time 22:27
 Minimum pressure        = 991.6 mb on day 18 at time 00:28
 Maximum windspeed       = 29.9 mph from 270°( W ) on day 10 at time 22:55
 Maximum gust speed      = 36.8 mph from 270°( W ) on day 10 at time 22:54
 Maximum heat index      = 7.2°C on day 10 at time 18:39
 Avg daily max temp :2.0°C
 Avg daily min temp :-3.5°C
 Growing degrees days :0.0 GDD
 Total windrun = 4193.5miles
 Frost days= 22
 Ice days= 9
 Very cold days= 4
North York Moors weather 
+2
CField
22 November 2023 22:18:13
All very 95 to me....could be a very interesting season ahead
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Crepuscular Ray
22 November 2023 22:27:28
I was in Edinburgh in 2010 and will never forget late November and December. Deep cold from the NE with repeated intense snow showers streaming down the Forth. I've never seen such intensity to snow with almost day darkness as they swept through. 

It was Edinburgh's deepest ever snow in the city and at the Botanic Gardens and reached 12" level depth in some places.

We were marooned a few times and most folk couldn't use their cars for 4 weeks. The drifting up on the hill was immense!
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
+1
ballamar
22 November 2023 22:29:56
Since it became a hobby, not seen charts like this in December (not there yet!) but the potential has been gaining over the last few runs for some seriously cold weather. Could a blocking high induce a strat warming event to strengthen possibility of cold?
+1
Gusty
22 November 2023 22:34:59
I'm focussing on the continuation of the incredibly wet spell down here on the SE coast.

We've gone from a very wet and unstable SW'ly to potentially a very wet and showery E or NE'ly next week. 

This will ensure we pass the 200mm mark for November. 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



+1
White Meadows
22 November 2023 23:00:45

I'm focussing on the continuation of the incredibly wet spell down here on the SE coast.

We've gone from a very wet and unstable SW'ly to potentially a very wet and showery E or NE'ly next week. 

This will ensure we pass the 200mm mark for November. 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 


?? ..looks pretty dry to me

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=202&run=18&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 
Gandalf The White
23 November 2023 00:36:54

?? ..looks pretty dry to me

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=202&run=18&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



It doesn’t look that dry on the cumulative rainfall chart

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=346&y=164&run=18&runpara=0&type=10&ext=1 
 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Arbroath 1320
23 November 2023 02:39:05
Will be interesting to see how the models develop in the next few days. The potential is there for a fairly lengthy cold spell which could buck the typical trend of an El Nino Winter.

Met office backing ECM tonight in their forecast into next week but even the ECM model provides decent cold in FI. 

A great start to Winter from a model perspective. 
GGTTH
White Meadows
23 November 2023 06:19:08
GEM is particularly interesting this morning. It brings a potential snow event/s to the south next weekend. 

GFS ensembles looked like trending milder last night but have adjusted colder again on 00z 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 November 2023 07:57:14
WX temp charts keep the freezing area over Europe, with all areas being below the longterm average, except Spain and E of the Urals. Some rearrangement in week 2, less extensive over France but more influence over Britain; and intensifying over N Russia and Scandinavia (the latter have had a persistently very cold autumn). Rain/snow in most places at some time for both weeks; drier patches around the Baltic and, for week 1 only in Spain.

GFS Op - certainly on the cold side but reluctant to show a sustained commitment to really cold weather. Until Mon 27th the deep LP in the Baltic brings N-lies down the N Sea. Then shallow LP over France brings in a weak E-ly for a couple of days, dropping away before a new LP moves up from the SW forming a cold core 995mb Channel Sun 3rd before being brushed aside by a strengthened LP in Scandinavia and N-lies in the N Sea again Wed 6th.

ECM - similar to GFS but has a milder day or two around Fri 1st with some S-ly influence between the E-ly and the Channel low above.

GEM - Britain more under Atlantic influence at first, so perhaps a little milder; but the LP Sun 3rd is larger in area and brings in a NE-ly with a better connection to the cold pool over Scandinavia, specially affecting N England N-wards.

GEFS - some rain and milder briefly mostly affecting the S Mon 27th but otherwise consistently quite cold, up to 7C below norm with good ens agreement, recovering slightly towards the end of the first week in Dec. Small amounts of pptn showing up intermittently in some runs and when it does occur, probably as snow even in the south.  
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+6
Brian Gaze
23 November 2023 08:21:39
Next week is starting to look messy. Wet conditions look very possible, with snow more likely over high ground in the north. I think Darren mentioned recently how as the lead time reduces the computer models spin up small features in the flow. Looks very much like that to me. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
23 November 2023 08:22:54
Looks like a generally messier picture from the models this morning. It often seems to be the case that when they first pick up on a pattern they give us an extreme, simplified version of it - eg a straight easterly.

Then over the following days they give us a messier version of it, and sometimes drop it altogether, but sometimes go back to something closer to the original!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
23 November 2023 08:29:39
Just seen my iPhone app has the first snow symbol of the season for next Friday. Max of 2C, apparently. Yeah right…
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gandalf The White
23 November 2023 08:31:18

Next week is starting to look messy. Wet conditions look very possible, with snow more likely over high ground in the north. I think Darren mentioned recently how as the lead time reduces the computer models spin up small features in the flow. Looks very much like that to me. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



You will remember the discussions here in past winters about short wave features popping in the models and critically changing the broad long wave pattern..  it’s all pretty normal in all synoptic patterns but, of course, we don’t pay microscopic attention to such developments when the charts show standard mobility.

🤔🙂
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


squish
23 November 2023 09:40:48
Nice steady NE flow at +120 on the 06z ICON
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Whiteout
23 November 2023 11:18:27
Great to be back in the silly season again, some early interest after some pretty wet weather down here is much welcome!
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
+1
ballamar
23 November 2023 11:25:06
Bit of elevation and bit further North and it could get fun next week - cold rain looks widespread. It is only November so the chances are the pattern could repeat and get colder each time. Not a stable Easterly to be seen yet 
Gusty
23 November 2023 11:54:54
Interesting isn't it. 😀

A cold and frosty weekend, wet and cold Monday, wintry showers for some Tuesday, Frosty ridge Wednesday then an approaching low from the SW next Thursday that if it decides to slide further south it would open up the door to lashings of -10c 850Hpa desserts waiting in the wings in the eastern North Sea.

A pretty solid background signal from the ensembles for an extended cool/cold period.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49909&model=gfs&var=2&run=6&lid=ENS&bw= 

Get the cold in and all that. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49909&model=gfs&var=26&run=6&lid=ENS&bw= 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



+1
Quantum
23 November 2023 12:01:37
I think its fair to say many of us might be a little dissapointed with this output, if it was all that was on offer on the 23rd February after a mild winter. And let's be honest, that has happened many times before.

As it is, to have this output on the 23rd November is an absolute gift. We might not get widespread snow or severe cold out of it, but firstly we still might (!!), and even if we don't this is such a refreshing change from the muk of most years. Enjoy it!
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Timmytour
23 November 2023 12:22:39
Wondering if the first half of December can return us an average mean daily CET of under 1C as some models have suggested might be possible.

If it happened it would only be the 8th time in 146 years of records and the first time we had two years in a row since 1878/79 

It would be remarkable to see something of this nature occur for the third time this century which only occured once in the 20th century! (1981) 
Broxbourne, Herts 133ft ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
23 November 2023 12:37:41

Wondering if the first half of December can return us an average mean daily CET of under 1C as some models have suggested might be possible.

If it happened it would only be the 8th time in 146 years of records and the first time we had two years in a row since 1878/79 

It would be remarkable to see something of this nature occur for the third time this century which only occured once in the 20th century! (1981) 

Originally Posted by: Timmytour 



Yes would be a real statistical quirk especially when the 20th Century had plenty of cold winters.
The spell last December between about 10th and 18th is up there with any cold spell  in recent times. Something like a -2c cet i believe. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gandalf The White
23 November 2023 12:42:24

Interesting isn't it. 😀

A cold and frosty weekend, wet and cold Monday, wintry showers for some Tuesday, Frosty ridge Wednesday then an approaching low from the SW next Thursday that if it decides to slide further south it would open up the door to lashings of -10c 850Hpa desserts waiting in the wings in the eastern North Sea.

A pretty solid background signal from the ensembles for an extended cool/cold period.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49909&model=gfs&var=2&run=6&lid=ENS&bw= 

Get the cold in and all that. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49909&model=gfs&var=26&run=6&lid=ENS&bw= 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 



That mild blip on the Op is that rarity, a genuine outlier with no support across the ensemble suite for 36 hours and up in the top 10% either side of that.

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=313&y=111&run=6&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1&dmode=1 
 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


warrenb
23 November 2023 12:48:31

That mild blip on the Op is that rarity, a genuine outlier with no support across the ensemble suite for 36 hours and up in the top 10% either side of that.

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=313&y=111&run=6&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1&dmode=1 
 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Yes a clear outlier in the mid term, but then it is clearly leading the pack in the long term 😉
Tonbridge 45m 
Rob K
23 November 2023 13:48:28
Both GEM and GFS show an interesting feature dropping south from Iceland on around the 29th and joining a larger area of LP. If it aligns properly then it could give quite a decent snowfall to some. If it doesn't then it will just help to spin up a load of milder gunk across the south.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
23 November 2023 14:00:06
The upper level pattern is excellent. Here are some height anomolies from the GFS mean.

192h

UserPostedImage
Exactly what you want to see, with high anomolies to the NW and low to the SE.

The singal remains right until around the 6th December before becoming lost to noise:
UserPostedImage
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
+1

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