WX shows freezing weather continuing a retreat NE-wards with France and to a lesser extent Britain becoming milder in week 2. At the same time, by week 2 there is a large injection of extremely cold air in N Russia getting to half way between Moscow and St Petersburg. Pptn in week 1 across France into C Europe, some in Russia; week 2 covering most of NW Europe, esp heavy for England, also some around Turkey.
GFS Op - the storm which caused severe damage in Ukraine (it made the BBC News) has dispersed and merged with the LP still present around the Baltic. By Thu 30th the N-lies on the N Sea flank of this have combined with the Atlantic for a very intense LP 970mb Brittany with E-lies for Britain (snow/rain on a knife-edge). This moves E-wards and fills; a modest LP takes its place 995mb N Ireland Mon 4th and then a deep LP mid Atlantic 960mb Thu 7th produces long-fetch SW-lies for all of W Europe implying very mild. By Tue 12th this has travelled around N of Scotland and is positioned 980mb N Sea with cool NW-lies.
ECM - has the Baltic LP in place until Tue 5th with minor LP centres in a weak N-ly flow over Britain; that on Thu 30th is merely a trough 1000mb enhancing NE-lies for a day or two, By Wed 6th HP has moved up from the SW over Ireland and continues despite a small LP crossing NE Scotland Thu 7th.
GEM - similar to GFS but less extreme on Thu 30th
BBC Meteo Group last night was promising cold weather to persist beyond Mon 4th.
GEFS - temps dipping to very cold (ca 7C below norm) Sat 2nd, recovering to norm Tue 5th with good ens agreement. Then a wide spread develops, from v mild to v cold by Sat 9th, up to 10C either side of mean which sticks to the norm; op run is amongst the mildest. Pptn for the S around Fri 1st, drier for a day or two, then wet generally, heaviest in SW.
Snow row figures imply a 50% chance for the south Thu 1st which could be heavy, near certainty for the NE but only a very small quantity of snow there, minimal chance at other times.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl