Well the 12s have ramped up the snow potential next week.  ❄❄❄

ICON and UKMO look particularly snowy.

---

I'll have a '12' please Carol...

---

Yes, I think a lot left when the more sensible balanced views came on here and were actually allowed to say if a chart was showing milder air when it was!

---

I would have thought you would have preferred option 8? 

On a different note I see that the GFS op run once again drops the heights over Greenland much sooner that the rest of this evening’s models so far. It will be interesting to see which way the ECM goes.

---

Lol just the 15cm for me on the latest UKMO. 
early Christmas present yes please. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmohd.php?ech=168&mode=45&map=0 
 

---

UKM models are known to under-forecast light precipitation and over-forecast heavy precipitation. That could be something to bear in mind later this week, especially as parameters for snow look quite marginal.

---

ECM 12z also look snowy for many 30th/1st.
 

---

Very cold ECM 12z. Ending with this beauty.😍

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 
 

---

when charts like this roll out shows the futility of believing charts past a certain timeframe. Even the ENS can flip quickly. That chart would lead to serious cold. As ever more runs needed!

Re the point in bold, that has happened in the past. I recall early 2009 as one instance of this (early February I think) when the month opened with a wintry easterly spell and for a while, the ensemble runs were in pretty solid agreement that the cold would continue for quite a while. IIRC, it was around the middle of the month when they all flipped from cold to mild in the space of about 24 hours.

---

One low centred over the Azores and another over Tunisia. That'll do.

---

Proper Beast on the 12z ECM Control. A stunner.
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwfens_cartes.php?ech=192&mode=1&code=0&ext=0 


 

---

Well I'm really none the wiser what to expect. Even this coming week could be anything from a wet non-event to a snowy surprise, and after that it could be anything from a quick return to westerlies to a proper easterly.

---

indeed it is however the GEFS are now looking very confident of it turning milder, let's see if that changes on the 18z.

---

Yep basically anything could happen. We could do with a GFS upgrade soon though. 
 

---

ECM ENS seems to contain a cluster ~15% to 20% (??) which extend the cold period.

---

18z another party pooper for coldies. Chilly and wet is the name of the game, before that Azores HP sets up its usual Dec-Feb position. 

12Z Arpege had a decent snow event in the south on Thursday. 18Z has removed it entirely.

---

Increasingly looks BAU from the second week of December. 

---

In the meantime i notice in NW most posts are panic about the cold spell to end next week, in my view they should focus the snow events on Thursday to Friday should matter most than worrying about returning to normal pattern.  I am more focused and excited this coming snow events that all.  

Agreed GFS is a quick return to rubbish.

But ECM looks cold to day 9. HLB still there at the end.

UKMO still has significant snow for many this morning. By 168h

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmohd.php?ech=1&mode=45&map=0 
 

---

The longer term outlook of the default westerly regime has been signalled by GFS for some days now, but the second half of this week is very interesting and a challenge for forecasters.

---

That what i am after for this week as i am off to see the snow before i start my new job next Monday so not bothered about next week weather.  

UKV still offering a crumb of hope for some snowfall for the south on Friday morning. (Although the bulk of it passes too far south for me.)

Other than that it’s all pretty cruddy. 

The iPhone app (yes I know) summed it up for Thursday with a low of 1C and a high of 2C, and 14mm of rain!

---

WX shows freezing weather continuing a retreat NE-wards with France and to a lesser extent Britain becoming milder in week 2. At the same time, by week 2 there is a large injection of extremely cold air in N Russia getting to half way between Moscow and St Petersburg. Pptn in week 1 across France into C Europe, some in Russia; week 2 covering most of NW Europe, esp heavy for England, also some around Turkey.

GFS Op - the storm which caused severe damage in Ukraine (it made the BBC News) has dispersed and merged with the LP still present around the Baltic. By Thu 30th the N-lies on the N Sea flank of this have combined with the Atlantic for a very intense LP 970mb Brittany with E-lies for Britain (snow/rain on a knife-edge). This moves E-wards and fills; a modest LP takes its place 995mb N Ireland Mon 4th and then a deep LP mid Atlantic 960mb Thu 7th produces long-fetch SW-lies for all of W Europe implying very mild. By Tue 12th this has travelled around N of Scotland and is positioned 980mb N Sea with cool NW-lies.

ECM - has the Baltic LP in place until Tue 5th with minor LP centres in a weak N-ly flow over Britain; that on Thu 30th is merely a trough 1000mb enhancing NE-lies for a day or two, By Wed 6th HP has moved up from the SW over Ireland and continues despite a small LP crossing NE Scotland Thu 7th.

GEM - similar to GFS but less extreme on Thu 30th

BBC Meteo Group last night was promising cold weather to persist beyond Mon 4th.

GEFS - temps dipping to very cold (ca 7C below norm) Sat 2nd, recovering to norm Tue 5th with good ens agreement. Then a wide spread develops, from v mild to v cold by Sat 9th, up to 10C either side of mean which sticks to the norm; op run is amongst the mildest. Pptn for the S around Fri 1st, drier for a day or two, then wet generally, heaviest in SW.

Snow row figures imply a 50% chance for the south Thu 1st which could be heavy, near certainty for the NE but only a very small quantity of snow there, minimal chance at other times.

---