theweatheroutlook

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Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
01 December 2023 21:54:13
The behaviour of this pattern is all over the place.
UserPostedImage
We now have the two lows threatening to merge; the precip and temp distribution changes wildly from run to run. FI is less than 24 hours for snowfall.
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Saint Snow
01 December 2023 22:02:50


UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Quantum 




Looks like Svalbard is about to get shafted

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
02 December 2023 08:00:37
Tonight/Tommorow's snow situation remains wildly different depending on the model.

The short term uncertainty is insane at the moment.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Jiries
02 December 2023 08:17:29

Tonight/Tommorow's snow situation remains wildly different depending on the model.

The short term uncertainty is insane at the moment.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Best to ignore  those and look outside and work out.  Right now nasty fog i been completely dreading it are here that for sure keep sun and snow chances out of the picture.  I rather see this end quickly to 10C fast enough so next cold spell to be proper fog free subzero days with snow than continuing fog and cold rain days.
Tim A
02 December 2023 08:27:56
Met Office symbols show only very light snow here for an hour overnight, Met Office text says slight accumulations in places,  WRF shows significant accumulations , GFS and ECM show some  moderate snow amounts, UKV not interested at all. Which if any will be right. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Joe Bloggs
02 December 2023 09:33:48
The consensus amongst the boffins on Net Weather is that NW England could do unusually well tonight. 

Hopefully I’ll get to join the snow reports thread later. Not counting my chickens.

I haven’t done any analysis but it is still -4C outside which bodes well! 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Gavin D
02 December 2023 10:00:21
Snow and ice warnings out for parts of Central/Northern England and Wales tonight into tomorrow

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2023-12-03&id=e9484499-adc7-49bf-a161-b4a770c5beb6 
Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2023 10:04:27

The consensus amongst the boffins on Net Weather is that NW England could do unusually well tonight. 

Hopefully I’ll get to join the snow reports thread later. Not counting my chickens.

I haven’t done any analysis but it is still -4C outside which bodes well! 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Well GFS 6z gives you a decent covering tonight.  I think Manchester could get 5cm ish hills 10 to 15cm with a bit of luck.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&run=6&time=21&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Tim A
02 December 2023 10:13:28
Harmoinie 6z is a thing of beauty . Suggests significant snowfall North Wales,  Greater Manchester to West Yorkshire up to the Vale of York and NYMs.  
https://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/harmonie/runs/2023120206/harmonieeur40-26-25-3.png?02-10 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
+1
Gusty
02 December 2023 10:16:13

The consensus amongst the boffins on Net Weather is that NW England could do unusually well tonight. 

Hopefully I’ll get to join the snow reports thread later. Not counting my chickens.

I haven’t done any analysis but it is still -4C outside which bodes well! 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Good luck Joe. Hope to see you posting in the snow reports thread tomorrow morning.😀

Last nights yellow warning including East Kent was pretty much spot on by the Met Office. I've been quite pleased with their performances of late.

 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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+1
Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2023 10:19:58

Harmoinie 6z is a thing of beauty . Suggests significant snowfall North Wales,  Greater Manchester to West Yorkshire up to the Vale of York and NYMs.  
https://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/harmonie/runs/2023120206/harmonieeur40-26-25-3.png?02-10

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

 

Yep finally the models firming up on exactly what might happen snow wise this weekend.  Up till now they have been all over the place. Looks like a very good event for the NW . I'm even hopeful some snow might even make it all the way to me. Not much though.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
02 December 2023 10:22:30

Snow and ice warnings out for parts of Central/Northern England and Wales tonight into tomorrow

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2023-12-03&id=e9484499-adc7-49bf-a161-b4a770c5beb6 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



Birmingham are inside the zone so I see of that true or not the fog need to sod off to allow snow to enter.
Tim A
02 December 2023 10:25:48
Think the hills of the peak district are the prime location at the moment.  
But the main worry is that the freezing level looks to be around 200m, sure it can come down in heavy precipitation but looks marginal and/or may start melting straight after the event. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2023 10:42:20

Birmingham are inside the zone so I see of that true or not the fog need to sod off to allow snow to enter.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



You have some decent altitude now so could be a good event for you. 

Lots of uncertainty but could be memorable.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Joe Bloggs
02 December 2023 10:51:49

Think the hills of the peak district are the prime location at the moment.  
But the main worry is that the freezing level looks to be around 200m, sure it can come down in heavy precipitation but looks marginal and/or may start melting straight after the event. 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 



Yeah I’m not overly excited - there is too much risk of marginality. Some models look very good, but the UKV shows sleet at 2C here so I’d be surprised to see a winter wonderland scenario. Altitude will be key. 

Would be good to see some falling snow at least - I think there is a good chance of that if nothing else. 

I keep my expectations very low these days. @Gusty always good to hear from you also! 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Joe Bloggs
02 December 2023 10:53:12

Well GFS 6z gives you a decent covering tonight.  I think Manchester could get 5cm ish hills 10 to 15cm with a bit of luck.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&run=6&time=21&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



yea some of the models show really decent snow cover for here, its very unusual.

UKV not really interested though. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Jiries
02 December 2023 10:58:19

You have some decent altitude now so could be a good event for you. 

Lots of uncertainty but could be memorable.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Agreed all the charts that restrict and choosy to put which area will get will never be right. I just check outside the windows as past times like 2021 the charts were very wrong and end up getting decent 8cm depth of snow here.  Wrong meaning they put snow here never turn up but no snow on the charts it snowed here so that happen all the time, waste of space those snow prediction and depths.  Last year ECM put very high totals but fog killed that off and the snow end up unexpected further East where no fog blocked it.
Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2023 11:04:10

yea some of the models show really decent snow cover for here, its very unusual.

UKV not really interested though. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



I think the UKV is quite poor when it comes to snow . I rate Arpege which gives you 5cm ish.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2023 11:07:39

Agreed all the charts that restrict and choosy to put which area will get will never be right. I just check outside the windows as past times like 2021 the charts were very wrong and end up getting decent 8cm depth of snow here.  Wrong meaning they put snow here never turn up but no snow on the charts it snowed here so that happen all the time, waste of space those snow prediction and depths.  Last year ECM put very high totals but fog killed that off and the snow end up unexpected further East where no fog blocked it.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Snow is pretty much always a nowcast event for England.
Will be interesting when we can actually see the precipitation on the radar , how much and how far north or south.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Joe Bloggs
02 December 2023 11:19:03

I think the UKV is quite poor when it comes to snow . I rate Arpege which gives you 5cm ish.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Yes I’d be very happy with Arpege and Harmonie. 

Latest 06z WRF not quite so good with the main action further north. South Cumbria gets clobbered. 

Lots of uncertainty even at this close range. Fascinating though.

Saturday evenings are brilliant for events like this. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Gavin D
02 December 2023 12:20:22
Meanwhile. In Bavaria’s capital of Munich they've had their heaviest snow fall in around 20 years with the entire city closed along with its main airport

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
02 December 2023 12:30:41
Metoffice have issued a 1-3cm warning.

Its kinda just an average of the nearly 0cm from the UKV and the 5-10cm from the WRF,HARMONIE e.c.t.

Kinda feel like they should give a bigger range; 0-15cm seems more appropiate given the exceptional uncertainty.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
02 December 2023 12:56:07
Regarding Sunday's lack of snow. A very small chage could make a big difference.

The reason we are not getting snow on that northern edge is the import of some warm dew points up the E side of the north sea and then advected over land.

If the land is a bit frostier, or the rain arrives later in the day; the temp differential between the land and the sea will be stronger; causing the wind to be more westerly; that could make a massive difference. Stay tuned.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Joe Bloggs
02 December 2023 13:22:44
An amber weather warning has just been issued for Cumbria.

I think the amount of snow around the Furness peninsula has really taken the forecasters by surprise today. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Retron
02 December 2023 13:39:54

An amber weather warning has just been issued for Cumbria.

I think the amount of snow around the Furness peninsula has really taken the forecasters by surprise today. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Interesting, looks like "lake effect" snow isn't just something found on the east coasts of the UK!
Leysdown, north Kent
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