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Joe Bloggs
02 December 2023 13:45:10

Interesting, looks like "lake effect" snow isn't just something found on the east coasts of the UK!

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Good to see South Cumbria (including the coast) getting so much snow, it very often misses out. 

https://www.windermere-lakecruises.co.uk/ambleside-webcam 

https://www.windermere-lakecruises.co.uk/lakeside-webcam 


Looking beautiful. 
 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
02 December 2023 13:51:18

Interesting, looks like "lake effect" snow isn't just something found on the east coasts of the UK!

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Double whammy, clearly there is a feature there which is providing a lifting mechanism to add to the lake effect already there.
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
+1
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
02 December 2023 13:52:24

An amber weather warning has just been issued for Cumbria.

I think the amount of snow around the Furness peninsula has really taken the forecasters by surprise today. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Which tells me they have a huge bias towards their own model. It shouldn't have been a surprise if they had looked through the other high res models.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
+1
Tim A
02 December 2023 14:18:08
Forgot about this early Icon view. Here is the 12z
https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icond2/runs/2023120212/icond2-46-20-0.png?02-14 
Snow over a wide area with Peaks and Eastern Yorkshire best here. Awaiting the other 12z with much interest. Hopefully there will be a widespread event with decent snow for many.  
​​​​​​
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
02 December 2023 15:57:13

Forgot about this early Icon view. Here is the 12z
https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icond2/runs/2023120212/icond2-46-20-0.png?02-14 
Snow over a wide area with Peaks and Eastern Yorkshire best here. Awaiting the other 12z with much interest. Hopefully there will be a widespread event with decent snow for many.  
​​​​​​

Originally Posted by: Tim A 


The models seem to finally agree on the fact the broad area will see snow. They are still completely divergent on how much and the hot spots.

Its essentially because you have two features, the showers over the NW right now are asociated with the slack LP to the north, and also the leading warm front to the south. These features will merge about half way through the event and its very complex dynamically so they are really struggling with it.

I wouldn't want to comit to anything. Expect dissapointment, hope for a covering.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Brian Gaze
02 December 2023 16:15:48
ICON-D2 15Z snow depths are quite interesting.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/icon-d2.aspx?run=15&charthour=14&chartname=snowdepth&chartregion=europe&charttag=Snow%20depth 

 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Saint Snow
02 December 2023 16:21:08

ICON-D2 15Z snow depths are quite interesting.

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 




Oh no they're not!

🤬

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2023 16:22:15

ICON-D2 15Z snow depths are quite interesting.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/icon-d2.aspx?run=15&charthour=14&chartname=snowdepth&chartregion=europe&charttag=Snow%20depth 

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Completly missed the foot of snow in the Lake District.  Anything could happen tonight most models have been very poor.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
02 December 2023 16:22:34

Oh no they're not!

🤬

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



😁 I think Quantum rates ICON-D2 very highly. I don't have a view at the moment because I've only started looking at it recently, but I do rate the ICON-G grid.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
02 December 2023 16:24:09

Completly missed the foot of snow in the Lake District.  Anything could happen tonight most models have been very poor.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



I thought that myself but I think that view doesn’t actually go as far west as the parts of the Lakes affected by the heavy snow. Having said that, the view that does underestimates the snow depth of the webcams are anything to go by.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Brian Gaze
02 December 2023 16:24:24

Completly missed the foot of snow in the Lake District.  Anything could happen tonight most models have been very poor.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



I don't think so. Most of the Lake District is outside of the ICON-D2 grid.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
02 December 2023 16:28:31
Places in central Britain which miss out tonight could have another bite of the cherry on Monday if Arpege is right.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2023 16:30:57

I don't think so. Most of the Lake District is outside of the ICON-D2 grid.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



It has 1cm for the east of the region which is way off. For whatever reason every model missed it.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
02 December 2023 16:32:36

It has 1cm for the east of the region which is way off. For whatever reason every model missed it.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Do you know what time the snow fell? The ICON-D2 is a 15Z rather than 12Z update, therefore, the forecast accumulations would be from that time. It updates a lot earlier than the other models and we're only 90 minutes past the start time.

PS: I don't have a view on whether it is right or wrong - just giving a possible explanation
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2023 16:36:19

Do you know what time the snow fell? The ICON-D2 is a 15Z rather than 12Z update, therefore, the forecast accumulations would be from that time. It updates a lot earlier than the other models and we're only 90 minutes past the start time.

PS: I don't have a view on whether it is right or wrong - just giving a possible explanation

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



I think it really started about 11am but still going strong now.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gandalf The White
02 December 2023 17:31:27
Alaro has been consistent and the 12z continues to show snow falling in the early hours of tomorrow morning in the east, several hours worth before it peters out from the west.  Shows as rain initially as far north as the northern Home Counties, but as the intensity picks up it becomes snow for all, away from southern coastal counties.

Across the other high res output, Arome and Arpege show snow north of The Wash, rain to the south, WRF shows patchy rain, ICON light snow north of London, with a rain/sleet/snow mix for the northern Home Counties.

The proverbial knife edge.

 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


ozone_aurora
02 December 2023 17:37:28
Over the Irish Sea, thunderstorms are or were raging, with perhaps thundersnow, or probably more of rain and hail.
Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2023 17:42:14

Alaro has been consistent and the 12z continues to show snow falling in the early hours of tomorrow morning in the east, several hours worth before it peters out from the west.  Shows as rain initially as far north as the northern Home Counties, but as the intensity picks up it becomes snow for all, away from southern coastal counties.

Across the other high res output, Arome and Arpege show snow north of The Wash, rain to the south, WRF shows patchy rain, ICON light snow north of London, with a rain/sleet/snow mix for the northern Home Counties.

The proverbial knife edge.

 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Alaro does look good for here. Outside bet though.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
02 December 2023 18:14:49

Alaro does look good for here. Outside bet though.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I think it's a bit too enthusiastic! Not only does it have snow (or sleet) here for a couple of hours tomorrow, it has more on Monday.

Everything else is just showing rain, rain and more rain!

 
Leysdown, north Kent
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
02 December 2023 19:26:13
Can I just say, do the metoffice even look at their radar?

Look I get it, there might have been reasons they plumped for the UKV over the other models with regards to Cumbria; I get that, and can understand the complexities. But what is their excuse for not looking at their radar? The central part of that warning area is snow dry while the heaviest snow extended out the southern part of the amber region (which tbh you could even have argued for red)
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
+1
Gandalf The White
02 December 2023 20:15:47

Can I just say, do the metoffice even look at their radar?

Look I get it, there might have been reasons they plumped for the UKV over the other models with regards to Cumbria; I get that, and can understand the complexities. But what is their excuse for not looking at their radar? The central part of that warning area is snow dry while the heaviest snow extended out the southern part of the amber region (which tbh you could even have argued for red)

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



What’s the lead time for issuing a warning, by the time it’s been determined that one is needed through to getting it signed off and then issued?  Plus, there’s little point in playing catch-up: if it’s already snowing hard then what’s the point of a belated warning?  My point is that a warning based on the radar echoes is pretty much pointless.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Jiries
02 December 2023 21:07:27

I think it's a bit too enthusiastic! Not only does it have snow (or sleet) here for a couple of hours tomorrow, it has more on Monday.

Everything else is just showing rain, rain and more rain!

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Cold rain of 3-4C day and night no thanks and rather see thie sorry cold rainy spell out of the way much sooner and replace with 10C days if there no snow prospects.
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
02 December 2023 22:31:41

What’s the lead time for issuing a warning, by the time it’s been determined that one is needed through to getting it signed off and then issued?  Plus, there’s little point in playing catch-up: if it’s already snowing hard then what’s the point of a belated warning?  My point is that a warning based on the radar echoes is pretty much pointless.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



I mean we all use radar for very short range nowcasting. If a big streamer has developed 10 miles to the south of your warning area you could update the warning before it hits, or at least modify the area southward after it hits but hasn't had chance to accumulate much yet.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Joe Bloggs
03 December 2023 08:43:02

Good luck Joe. Hope to see you posting in the snow reports thread tomorrow morning.😀

Last nights yellow warning including East Kent was pretty much spot on by the Met Office. I've been quite pleased with their performances of late.

 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 



Alas, no winter wonderland this morning.

It’s much less stressful now I don’t care so much. 🤣 

It did snow quite heavily last night but no real settling. I should have realised that living in such a notable UHI - if snow is forecast to fall when the temps are above freezing, we just won’t get the accumulations you’d see in outlying areas. 

WRF and Harmonie were over-zealous and I think people were too quick to dismiss the UKV’s conservative snow totals and the MetO’s view.

Other areas of the NW (including parts of G Man) have lying snow which is great to see. 

However what happened in Cumbria yesterday is definitely a learning curve. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Rob K
03 December 2023 11:27:47

Alaro does look good for here. Outside bet though.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Alaro still insists it will be snowing across the southeast this lunchtime! It's currently 6 degrees.

https://modeles3.meteociel.fr/modeles/alaro/runs/2023120306/alaro-1-7-0.png?03-10 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
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