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Ally Pally Snowman
11 December 2023 19:42:45
Didn't expect to see that from the GFS 12z. Refuses to let the dream die lol. And just a hint that the ECM might want to join the party. 

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
David M Porter
11 December 2023 20:07:26
I wasn't expecting the ECM 12z op to end as it does! Interesting.

As others have alluded to above, it seems things could still go either way as we head closer to the start of the festive season which with 14 days still to go is eons away in model forecasting terms.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Arbroath 1320
11 December 2023 20:08:14
What I find interesting in the current set up, is that when the High slips East into the European continent ~15th, it's not been predicted in any of the model output to stay there very long. By the 19th its migrated off to the mid-Atlantic, South of Greenland.

How many times in Winters past have we seen such a High form a Euroslug over the near continent which would stay there for weeks on end? 



 
GGTTH
marcus72
11 December 2023 20:18:57
Yep, for the 23rd December there was just a 20° swing in 850 temps for London between the 6z and the 12z GFS Op runs. It's all nailed on then 😆  That green line on Brian's charts looks like a skipping rope at the moment after around the 19th! 

Should keep the interest in Christmas going a tad longer.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Langstone, SE Hampshire
Gandalf The White
11 December 2023 21:02:46

Yep, for the 23rd December there was just a 20° swing in 850 temps for London between the 6z and the 12z GFS Op runs. It's all nailed on then 😆  That green line on Brian's charts looks like a skipping rope at the moment after around the 19th! 

Originally Posted by: marcus72 



As the joke goes, the only consistent thing at the moment is the inconsistency…
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Saint Snow
11 December 2023 21:23:12
Hadn't had chance to glance at the models since this morning and, after reading the last half dozen or so posts, was a little excited.

I'm a bit underwhelmed, though.

Hopefully it's a trend back to the more wintry charts, but if it played out like either the GFS, ECM or GEM, it would be disappointing.

Think it's very likely now that the high that, up to a few days ago, was being forecast to sit over us (lovely, seasonal frosts and mist/fog), will temporarily set up camp too far south, allowing mild (even warmish) air over the top - along with rain for the NW of the UK.

Then the retrogression doesn't get anything like far enough north.

And it all collapses around Xmas anyway.

Like I say, this is hopefully the start of a trend. I'm already counting down how many Xmas's I have left alive.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+2
Russwirral
11 December 2023 22:53:11
CField
12 December 2023 05:39:41

Yep, for the 23rd December there was just a 20° swing in 850 temps for London between the 6z and the 12z GFS Op runs. It's all nailed on then 😆  That green line on Brian's charts looks like a skipping rope at the moment after around the 19th! 

Originally Posted by: marcus72 

🤣
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
White Meadows
12 December 2023 07:15:34
All looking rather flat and uninspiring for coldies again this morning. 
With the AO going (and staying) as positive as predicted, the UK winter will have to remain on hold perhaps indefinitely once again.. or perhaps until February or March. 

Wet and windy is the general theme, good for the heating bills and local wind surfers!


 
+1
Heavy Weather 2013
12 December 2023 07:40:55
Christmas could end up being one of those technical white Christmas’s. 

US will be going into the cooker the next few weeks. Of course at some point they will go into the freezer, and of course we will get the dregs.

Really want to see some cheer, there are still runs that do snow some interest, so let’s see. Long way to go.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
doctormog
12 December 2023 07:48:48

Hello xmas 2004

 

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



Yes, and this morning the chance of a White Christmas for much of the northern half of the UK is still clearly signalled on this morning’s GFS run (as well as the cold incursion from the northern quarter at some point between the 21st and 23rd). All a long way off but still quite consistent in terms of trends if not specifics.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Brian Gaze
12 December 2023 07:53:15

Christmas could end up being one of those technical white Christmas’s. 

US will be going into the cooker the next few weeks. Of course at some point they will go into the freezer, and of course we will get the dregs.

Really want to see some cheer, there are still runs that do snow some interest, so let’s see. Long way to go.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 



I wonder if we could end up with something similar to the amazing Christmas of 1999? A very steep pressure gradient leading to strong winds could reduce the amount of lower level warming on a westerly flow. On the other hand, I expect SSTs are higher now than then.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
12 December 2023 07:54:44

Yes, and this morning the chance of a White Christmas for much of the northern half of the UK is still clearly signalled on this morning’s GFS run (as well as the cold incursion from the northern quarter at some point between the 21st and 23rd). All a long way off but still quite consistent in terms of trends if not specifics.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


signals remain for some sort of Northerly type weather but I am shocked pressure over Europe seems to scupper chances for the South 😂. Fingers crossed somewhere gets lucky unlikely to be southern regions!
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
12 December 2023 08:17:30
WX temp charts - the retreat eastwards of freezing weather from NW Europe to Russia appears to have slowed, leaving a few cool patches while the rest of Europe is mild. In week 2, colder weather appears in the far north (Iceland, N Scandinavia - even the Highlands get a tiny 'blue blob'). Rain/snow in week 1 mainly  over the mountains of S Europe, plus Russia with some in the N Atlantic affecting NW Scotland; in week 2, more widespread and quite heavy pptn all the way from the Atlantic across NW Europe and on into Russia. Throughout all this Spain and Italy stay dry.

GFS Op - current LP centred on Britain moving steadily E-wards to Russia. Pressure builds 1040mb  N France Sat 16th with mild SW-lies at first before the HP retrogresses 1050mb C Atlantic Wed 20th with winds going round to the NW. The HP stays there or a little further S until collapsing Mon 25th when LP dips down from Iceland 985mb Hebrides with an Arctic feed - not really reaching the south but if that scenario verifies, the Highlands would be in for a memorable blizzard. The cold air soon retreats E-wards and by Thu 28th HP is building from the SW again.

ECM and GEM - not very different from GFS up to Fri 22nd

GEFS -  after rain is out of the way today, dry and becoming very mild around Sat 16th. A sudden drop in temp Tue 19th with increasing amounts of rain (good chance of snow in Scotland) through to Thu 28th. After the drop, there's some agreement between ens members on a rebound before something cooler around Sat 23rd, op and control leading the pack here, but little confidence given the amount of variation.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Heavy Weather 2013
12 December 2023 08:43:46

I wonder if we could end up with something similar to the amazing Christmas of 1999? A very steep pressure gradient leading to strong winds could reduce the amount of lower level warming on a westerly flow. On the other hand, I expect SSTs are higher now than then.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Was that the year the MetOffice press team said there was more chance of Aliens landing on the Millenium dome
than their being a white Christmas? And then in the AM there we’re a few flakes mixed in?
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Weathermac
12 December 2023 09:37:27
Xmas day 1999 was quite stormy for a time as a very active cold front swept through with 60mph gusts and heavy rain which turned to snow as the temp dropped quickly it didn’t settle but was snow falling.
nsrobins
12 December 2023 11:11:40
The Atlantic really firing up in the latest GFS OP. That scenario is one of many being recently shown in the GEFS so no surprise.
Xmas Day gale anyone?
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
ballamar
12 December 2023 11:16:03

The Atlantic really firing up in the latest GFS OP. That scenario is one of many being recently shown in the GEFS so no surprise.
Xmas Day gale anyone?

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



looking pretty much a certainty at the moment and the southerly tracking trend seems to have disappeared! Not looking great for the south for Xmas day - still a chance in northern areas
Brian Gaze
12 December 2023 11:26:59

Was that the year the MetOffice press team said there was more chance of Aliens landing on the Millenium dome
than their being a white Christmas? And then in the AM there we’re a few flakes mixed in?

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 



Apparently so. I think it was the last time a white Christmas was recorded in London. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
DPower
12 December 2023 16:28:20
Following on from a very encouraging 12z Icon run. The 12z Gfs run looks like its going to be an absolute cracker of a run.
ballamar
12 December 2023 16:41:37
Could GFS give hope again?!
David M Porter
12 December 2023 16:49:02

Could GFS give hope again?!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



The last few GFS op runs have been mildly encouraging, IMHO.

A long way to go until we reach the festive season, but there does seem to be a little more hope at the moment for those seeking cold at the start of the festive season that seemed to be the case in the weekend's runs.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Russwirral
12 December 2023 16:51:08
Big Run incoming

Best of the bunch so far I reckon

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
warrenb
12 December 2023 16:51:13
GFS serving up a christmas cracker
Tonbridge 45m 
Ally Pally Snowman
12 December 2023 16:55:17

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