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Saint Snow
13 December 2023 08:38:35
GFS 0z isn't anything like as good as the previous few runs.

Much messier, never brings in that long-fetch cold NW'ly/NNW'ly/N'ly, then gets very progressive from the 26th 

The route to any Xmas cold & snow is very precarious!
​​​​​

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Ally Pally Snowman
13 December 2023 08:40:43
Looking like a cold zonal set up now before Christmas.  Could be good for the NW. Snow rows on the GEFS give approx 20% chance for London, 50% Manchester and 70% for Glasgow in the run up to The big day.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
13 December 2023 08:47:08
Significant HLB looks an outside bet atm. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 December 2023 09:12:14
Wx temp charts showing a shift from cold in the east ( week 1, the 0C isotherm running N-S roughly from Norway to Crimea) to cold in the north (week 2, the 0C isotherm running W-E roughly from Scotland to the southern Baltic and on eastwards). Pptn in week 1 mainly N Atlantic (Scotland & Norway plus a bit in Finland), in week 2 much heavier and concentrated over Britain generally, France and Germany.

GFS Op - current Lp being slower to clear E-wards than previously thought but by the weekend well out of the way and HP from the SW established 1040mb N France with SW-lies for Scotland, quiet weather for England. From Mon 18ththe HP moves W-wards to the Atlantic, meaning at first winds round to the NW for all Mon 18th, later deep LP swings down from Iceland 965mb Shetland Thu 21st with Arctic air on a mixture of NE-lies (Scotland) and NW-lies (England). By Sat 23rd all Britain under an Arctic trough, filling but leaving a remnant cold-looking LP 985mb Malin Christmas Day. There must be a reasonable chance of a white Christmas anywhere if this set-up holds, but especially in the north. It doesn't last as an Atlantic LP skirts round the N of Scotland introducing zonal W-lies by Fri 29th.

ECM - similar to GFS at first, but slower to bring LP down from the north, still 940mb Iceland on Thu 23rd and by Sat (final chart) only really cold for N Britain on a NW-ly flow.

GEFS - becoming very mild around Mon 18th, cooling suddenly on the 19th and remaining below norm until 25th when with the usual caveat about variability, mean resumes norm. Rain/snow starts for most places from Tue 19th and becomes increasingly heavy especially in the west with snow row figures suggesting about 50% chance of snow for Scotland in the run-up to Christmas Day.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
ballamar
13 December 2023 10:34:41
Ideally that low would be pushed down the North Sea but looks like it could get positioned wrong for decent cold and being in som milder air into the mix
Heavy Weather 2013
13 December 2023 10:35:39
Remember if the heights are as low as being suggested - expected parameters for snowfall could be more in our favour. 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Saint Snow
13 December 2023 11:16:34
6z also isn't as good as those good runs yesterday for the 24th-26th period - and afterwards is positively poor, with pressure inflating over France/Italy/Germany, then the mid-Atlantic high moving first over the Azores, then ridging into western Europe.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
warrenb
13 December 2023 11:29:09
The difference is over the pole, in the 0z, the PV split allowing the cold air south, in the 6z, after the initial drop of the PV a large chunk is left over the pole. This basically resets the pattern to it's normal routine.
Tonbridge 45m 
+1
White Meadows
13 December 2023 13:01:54
Unfortunately the largely flat pattern looks set to continue across the more reliable output. Dartboard lows over Iceland, massive high pressure to our south or south west. 
met office has modified their possible cold ‘snap’ to a short lived low key affair at best. 

Maybe January will be different this winter but it feels like we need something unique to deliver for coldies while we get stuck in a westerly regime til spring 2024. 
 
CField
13 December 2023 14:17:29

Unfortunately the largely flat pattern looks set to continue across the more reliable output. Dartboard lows over Iceland, massive high pressure to our south or south west. 
met office has modified their possible cold ‘snap’ to a short lived low key affair at best. 

Maybe January will be different this winter but it feels like we need something unique to deliver for coldies while we get stuck in a westerly regime til spring 2024. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

with a bit of a polar vortex running down the NE States this will add further fuel to the flatness....does feel like "that's it" for this godforsaken  winter...
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Martybhoy
13 December 2023 15:36:04
Say it isn’t so 🤦🏻‍♂️ 
200m above sea level
Rural East Ayrshire
Near to the village of Sorn
ballamar
13 December 2023 16:08:49

with a bit of a polar vortex running down the NE States this will add further fuel to the flatness....does feel like "that's it" for this godforsaken  winter...

Originally Posted by: CField 


ridiculous
johncs2016
13 December 2023 16:24:06

with a bit of a polar vortex running down the NE States this will add further fuel to the flatness....does feel like "that's it" for this godforsaken  winter...

Originally Posted by: CField 



I think it's far too early for anyone to claiming that winter is over. It is still only December after all, which means that we're still only really at the beginning of the meteorological winter with astronomical winter not even starting until the winter solstice (which for this year is at 3:27am GMT (03:27 UTC) on Friday 22 December 2023).

I do agree though, that the omens are not exactly looking too good at the moment as regards to the rest of this winter.

Given that this winter got off to such a promising start, that is a real shame but this so-called "winter" is now turning into a very big disappointment, I fear.

Having said that though, I was never expecting a cold winter on this occasion anyway, especially given the situation with the SSTs in the Indian Ocean and the fact that we had an exceptionally warm September this year (to date, such a warm September has never been followed by a cold winter according to the various analogues which have been borne out by many such as Gavin P. in his winter update videos over the years).

Because of that, I'm not surprised in any way that this now appears to be how it is all turning out, but the first few days of this month did then give us a glimmer of hope that all of this might somehow be turned on its head on this occasion. Sadly though, those are now very quickly appearing to be turning into very false hopes indeed with all of those hopes becoming more of a false dawn over time.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
+1
ballamar
13 December 2023 16:28:59
Big difference to 6z could be a cold run
Brian Gaze
13 December 2023 16:29:00
Obviously way too early to call time at the bar. However, I was never very "hopeful" about this winter for several reasons. We simply can't put the climatological baggage in the boot and forget it is there. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Retron
13 December 2023 16:29:03

I think it's far too early for anyone to claiming that winter is over. It is still only December after all, which means that we're still only really at the beginning of the meteorological winter
 

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


We're around a sixth of the way through winter (this being a weather forum, the meteorological definition is the one that makes the most sense)... the next 8 days are a write-off for most, which takes us to roughly the quarter-way mark.

That leaves three-quarters of winter, or down here around 6 weeks of the heart of winter remaining (where the sun is weak and the dreaded drip-drip is less likely given the right conditions). And before anyone mentions 2018, bear in mind that was record cold for the time of year!

That said, it could be a lot worse. Just look at the charts for 2015 as a reminder of what we could be facing, and at least those up north (like yourself) are in with a decent shout in the 10 day or so timeframe.

I'm still hopeful that with the vortex continuing to weaken we may well see that most elusive of things, a cold January. In theory that would see the main chunk of the vortex being to our NE or far to the ENE, over Scandinavia or Russia, rather than its usual home of the Canadian arctic. We'll see, anyway...

 
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
13 December 2023 16:34:28
GFS 12z looks to setting up a stunning northerly.  North could have a  very special Christmas if this comes off.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
13 December 2023 16:38:22

Obviously way too early to call time at the bar. However, I was never very "hopeful" about this winter for several reasons. We simply can't put the climatological baggage in the boot and forget it is there. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



but that was there in 2009 and 2010 to write off a winter based on a relatively small increase in temperature is a little neurotic. 
Brian Gaze
13 December 2023 16:43:11

but that was there in 2009 and 2010 to write off a winter based on a relatively small increase in temperature is a little neurotic. 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



I'm not talking about global temperature changes. I'm talking about the fact that we are currently struggling to record months below the 61-90 CET. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Russwirral
13 December 2023 17:02:04
The slightest Hint  of a Greenland High 

Back into a slightly white christmas for some

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
doctormog
13 December 2023 17:03:52

GFS 12z looks to setting up a stunning northerly.  North could have a  very special Christmas if this comes off.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Yes that trend has been there for about 5 days now. The details have however varied from being a coolish NWly all the way to a snowy cold northerly. The 12z op GFS is closer to the latter option,
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Martybhoy
13 December 2023 17:09:00
I’ll take this at this point.

UserPostedImage 
pic see app 
200m above sea level
Rural East Ayrshire
Near to the village of Sorn
David M Porter
13 December 2023 17:12:21

I'm not talking about global temperature changes. I'm talking about the fact that we are currently struggling to record months below the 61-90 CET. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



IIRC, when I first visited this forum in late 2004 and when I finally joined a couple of years later, we went through quite a long period at that time when we were struggling to record months at any time of the year which returned a CET that was even close to average, let alone below. I also recall many discussions in this forum during the first couple of winters I was posting here when a number of people questioned whether a colder than average winter or even a relatively long cold spell in the winter was still possible in the UK in view of the warming that had occured up to that point. That question was answered fairly decisively at the end of the 2000s/start of the 2010s.

The one thing I took from what happened in 2009 & 2010 is that even in these times of seemingly endless warming, we can still be surprised. The first two winters that I was a member here, 2006/07 and 2007/08 were both very poor for those of the cold preference. Furthermore, I imagine that very few at that time would have thought it possible that less that five years later, we would see month-long severe freezes in two successive winters.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+1
scillydave
13 December 2023 17:17:32

I'm not talking about global temperature changes. I'm talking about the fact that we are currently struggling to record months below the 61-90 CET. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



The trouble is as well that with every passing month and year the climate is of course warming. As time passes it will become increasingly difficult to get the kind of winter conditions that many of us crave. 
They obviously can and will happen for many decades to come but just with decreasing frequency over time. 
Unless of course the NA current shuts down of course!😅
 
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
Retron
13 December 2023 17:33:17

IIRC, when I first visited this forum in late 2004 and when I finally joined a couple of years later, we went through quite a long period at that time when we were struggling to record months at any time of the year which returned a CET that was even close to average, let alone below. .

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


It was bad, but not as bad as it is now. The period of mid 21 to late 22 is quite unique in recent times in terms of its warmth.

Here's my CET sheet (which may be a bit out of date, the MetO do like to tinker with the figures) - below 61-90 months are highlighted in blue.

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/6190.jpg 

UserPostedImage
Leysdown, north Kent

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