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Jiries
14 December 2023 19:58:57

Now that would be a real 'day after tomorrow' scenario ! 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 



It would be nice just to experence something extreme and on the extreme side is cold side for a change.   For sure Kent will be 1m deep if heavy snow from the east under near 100mph easterly gales.  I remember the ENE gales of 40-50mph in 2nd Feb 2009 gave us nearly a foot of snow in Epsom, Surrey.
White Meadows
14 December 2023 22:29:36
Disturbing developments on some of today’s output, re enforcing the chance of a Christmas storm, life threatening gales for the north, flooding and chaos on the roads.
The only crumb of comfort is the hope of a settled period after 28th with our old friend, big bad Uncle Barty. 

 
Russwirral
14 December 2023 23:02:55
Gfs pretty much drops the northerly now in lieu of a strong hp to the south

Not sure its completely dropped the cold air signal though as something different begins to manifest but doesnt quiet get there.

I dont think this is game over, more a change of game.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Russwirral
14 December 2023 23:06:54
Big inversion for portugal, very warm uppers (summer like almost) 

Surface temps much lower though, single figures

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
CField
15 December 2023 06:25:26
February 2019 revisited....amazing summer model.....
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
White Meadows
15 December 2023 06:55:08

February 2019 revisited....amazing summer model.....

Originally Posted by: CField 



More like December 1988 unfolding. 
If you like crisp and seasonal for the festive season, don’t look now 🤢

The wait goes on. Quite possibly til mid January as it stands. 

 
Retron
15 December 2023 06:59:17
It just goes to show - you can have an easterly QBO, the MJO in the right phase, a weak and displaced vortex and still end up with relentless zonal dross. I would advise those of us in the south making the most of the next few days, before the wet and windy weather resumes.

There is still a low chance of some decent cold for a brief time down here (rather higher "up north"), but I have to admit it's damned hard not to write off the rest of December at the moment.

This 216 chart from the ECM sums it up well, I feel. It's been a long time since the vortex has upped sticks in winter from its normal home, and seeing a flat jet and mild conditions across the States is also rare these days.

The only consolation I can offer this morning for coldies down here (aside from the small chance of a notable cold shot around Christmas) is that the ECM 10hPa charts continue to trend down each day; the mean for the end of the month is now below the 10th percentile, and there's a good chance of an SSW by mid January. (That would be perfectly timed to mess up my flight to Japan in early February - odds on, perhaps? 😀)

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/25/25649/ECH1_216ezp0.GIF.png 
UserPostedImage
Leysdown, north Kent
doctormog
15 December 2023 07:02:08
In a very unlikely scenario the GFS 00z op run offers a period of settling snow across a large swathe of Scotland on Christmas Eve night and maximum temperatures on Christmas Day up to 12°C as far north as Edinburgh. Probability- low.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Ally Pally Snowman
15 December 2023 07:04:58
Yes almost a complete climbdown from the GFS now. It does like to lead us up the garden path. Good chance of a 6c + CET December now I reckon. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
15 December 2023 07:07:41

It just goes to show - you can have an easterly QBO, the MJO in the right phase, a weak and displaced vortex and still end up with relentless zonal dross. I would advise those of us in the south making the most of the next few days, before the wet and windy weather resumes.

There is still a low chance of some decent cold for a brief time down here (rather higher "up north"), but I have to admit it's damned hard not to write off the rest of December at the moment.

This 216 chart from the ECM sums it up well, I feel. It's been a long time since the vortex has upped sticks in winter from its normal home, and seeing a flat jet and mild conditions across the States is also rare these days.

The only consolation I can offer this morning for coldies down here (aside from the small chance of a notable cold shot around Christmas) is that the ECM 10hPa charts continue to trend down each day; the mean for the end of the month is now below the 10th percentile, and there's a good chance of an SSW by mid January. (That would be perfectly timed to mess up my flight to Japan in early February - odds on, perhaps? 😀)

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/25/25649/ECH1_216ezp0.GIF.png 
UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Retron 



It’s depressing isn’t it. We only have a small ‘magical’ snow window in the south during winter and to see potentially the first month pass by is infuriating considering the background signals. Of course, we can say we have January - but more often than not it’s a busted flush. 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
15 December 2023 08:52:17
WX temp summary - not much change for the next two weeks; freezing weather (0C day-night isotherm) in Scandinavia and Russia plus a few small patches in mountainous areas, most of W Europe near or a little above norm. Pptn in week 1 on N Atlantic and in a band running S of the Baltic; these two areas expand in week 2 and join up to include Britain and W France.

GFS Op - yesterday's excesses of a violent N-ly have gone to be replaced with a succession of LPs from the N (NW-lies) and HPs from the south (SW-lies) rolling past i.e. a rather 'lumpy' zonal setup with dominant influences thus; Sat 16th 1040mb Channel, Wed 20th 995mb S Norway, Sun 24th 1025 mb Brittany, Wed 27th 960mb Fair Isle, Fri 29th 1025mb C England.

ECM - agrees though more of a true persistent zonal W-ly with HPs a little further S and lower pressure gradients

GEFS - very mild and dry until a sudden temp drop on Tue 19th, after which rain starts and becomes heavier and more persistent in the week after Christmas. The temp profiles mean little as op & control oscillate to match the above but in the S they are surrounded by a mass of 'spaghetti' which keeps the mean near norm. (on Tue 26th, for example, you can find ens members for any value between 8C above norm and 10C below)For Scotland there is somewhat better agreement between ens members with temps a little below norm.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Russwirral
15 December 2023 09:36:59
GFS playing games with us.. such a rapid climb down for a cold approach to Xmas.

However, from experience I have seen GFS and others do this, then suddenly restart the motor at the 11th hour

The GEFS shows all options are pretty much still on the table, including even colder ones.  Agreement is only good for 3-4 days at most

UserPostedImage

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
15 December 2023 10:28:29
GFS 6z lol 😆.  Its back on

Cold blasted away quickly though.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
15 December 2023 10:37:31

GFS 6z lol 😆.  Its back on

Cold blasted away quickly though.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



another small delay Xmas day could feel cold with outside chance wintry showers. Perhaps pressure over the pole not resolved yet
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
15 December 2023 10:42:28
GFS, my fav'rite toy
Is good at showing freezes
It only does so to annoy
Because it knows it teases.

[as Lewis Carroll might have said]
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Saint Snow
15 December 2023 11:21:47
Icon still offers hope! ☺

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Brian Gaze
15 December 2023 11:34:52
Here's some encouragement. If the trend of the 2020s so far continues there is a 4.3% chance of 2 or 3 of the winter months being colder than the 61-90 CET. 😂

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
CField
15 December 2023 11:51:06
The major rise of heights to the south west south have been a concern for a fair while now...the glimmer of hope is that trends have been in spells since March 2022....wet cold early spring, dry May, wet maritime June July 1st part of August, usual humid late August September, wet maritime October to mid November, the late autumn kerfuffle so hopefully a decent pattern change by February....

 
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Saint Snow
15 December 2023 12:05:23

The major rise of heights to the south west south have been a concern for a fair while now...the glimmer of hope is that trends have been in spells since March 2022....wet cold early spring, dry May, wet maritime June July 1st part of August, usual humid late August September, wet maritime October to mid November, the late autumn kerfuffle so hopefully a decent pattern change by February....

 

Originally Posted by: CField 




Whilst I'll always welcome snow, I find snow in February and especially March to be most disappointing.

They just never seem to have the longevity, given the increasingly stronger sun and longer days.

To me, you can't beat a late-December snowfall, with cold and cloudy/misty/foggy day to follow, where it never really gets light.


And with the above in mind, the GFS 6z, whilst opening a very small window for a very brief time, is still bloody depressing.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+2
Martybhoy
15 December 2023 14:07:19

Whilst I'll always welcome snow, I find snow in February and especially March to be most disappointing.

They just never seem to have the longevity, given the increasingly stronger sun and longer days.

To me, you can't beat a late-December snowfall, with cold and cloudy/misty/foggy day to follow, where it never really gets light.


And with the above in mind, the GFS 6z, whilst opening a very small window for a very brief time, is still bloody depressing.

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


agreed. It’s hard to get quite as excited by snow in January and especially February compared to December.
200m above sea level
Rural East Ayrshire
Near to the village of Sorn
overland
15 December 2023 14:24:13



To me, you can't beat a late-December snowfall, with cold and cloudy/misty/foggy day to follow, where it never really gets light.

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Absolutely this - someone on Twitter regularly posts images from the Ladybird books and recently they've included winter scenes and they are so evocative of how you've described the perfect winter's day!
Mumbles, Swansea. 80m asl
nsrobins
15 December 2023 15:43:38
ICON 12Z now looks like its smelt the new paint and goes the flatter route. It is probable that the potential xmas cold snap has dissolved into the ether and we look towards New Year. 
Still time for change as 9 days is stretching the limit of NWP.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
nsrobins
15 December 2023 16:39:14

ICON 12Z now looks like its smelt the new paint and goes the flatter route. It is probable that the potential xmas cold snap has dissolved into the ether and we look towards New Year. 
Still time for change as 9 days is stretching the limit of NWP.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Have a look at the 12Z GFS - see what I did? 😂
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Ally Pally Snowman
15 December 2023 16:41:57
Another plot twist you can't make it up. Sustained northerly again starting Christmas Eve now.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
15 December 2023 16:51:25
Could there be a significant trend change on the way? 
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