theweatheroutlook

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doctormog
15 December 2023 16:54:12
I think it’s all variations on a NWly theme to be honest. The (GEFS) ensemble data have been relatively consistent for a few days now. The White Christmas chance is there but so are the milder and stormier options. 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
Martybhoy
15 December 2023 20:16:27
IBM has brought back the cold for me on Christmas Eve. It was looking very different this afternoon.

UserPostedImage 
200m above sea level
Rural East Ayrshire
Near to the village of Sorn
+1
Saint Snow
15 December 2023 21:23:47
GEM not dissimilar to GFS on the 24th/25th

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
David M Porter
15 December 2023 22:24:22
Maybe the cold NW at or just before Xmas can't be ruled out just yet. GFS 18z seems to be toying with it again.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gandalf The White
15 December 2023 22:55:59

Maybe the cold NW at or just before Xmas can't be ruled out just yet. GFS 18z seems to be toying with it again.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



Hi David, the output is so inconsistent for later next week that I think we need to see the ensembles rather than the Op, to see whether this is a trend or yet another outlier or low-probability solution.  All I see in the 18z Op is the pattern flattening out again, and moving at a faster pace.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
15 December 2023 23:08:08
GFS18Z is a bit of a downgrade, but the ensemble set looks like an upgrade.

This is not resolved.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
15 December 2023 23:25:26

GFS18Z is a bit of a downgrade, but the ensemble set looks like an upgrade.

This is not resolved.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Yes, looking at Christmas Eve there’s a majority delivering cold north-westerlies, but still a handful showing a flat pattern with high pressure closer to the south. Pert 5 delivers snow moving south during the day. Pert 2 is quite similar.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


BJBlake
16 December 2023 00:10:41

Yes, looking at Christmas Eve there’s a majority delivering cold north-westerlies, but still a handful showing a flat pattern with high pressure closer to the south. Pert 5 delivers snow moving south during the day. Pert 2 is quite similar.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Yes - I think this is one of those situations where the average chart is useful, because this is definitely what others call an upgrade (for cold weather fans), compared to the Op - which is the counterweight - downgrade. Christmas Eve is looking interesting, but more runs needed to resolve.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
BJBlake
16 December 2023 00:16:50
The end of the run is also of interest, whilst deep into FI, there seems to be an emerging trend to a cold start to 2024. be interesting to see if this verifies. The jet is more amplified, although this run shows a northerly, the last few hinted of something more polar maritime, but still showed a more amplified jet pattern. 
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
CField
16 December 2023 03:04:15
Like the end of the GEM run....possibility of a disturbance running along the channel? with this set up could get the channel lake effect snow... this happened in Dec 95 the temperature plummeted from 6 to 0 on a matter of minutes followed bt a good 10 inches of snow before turning to drizzle at the end.Unlkkely   but a very outside chance of an unexpected Xmas while out.
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Retron
16 December 2023 06:28:02
Today's "crazy run" is member 27 of the 0z GEFS. Gales, blizzards, -12C 850s from the west...

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=228&code=27&mode=0&carte=0&ext=0 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/11/8795/gens_27_0_252czj8.png
UserPostedImage 

...and again a couple of days later:
https://images.meteociel.fr/im/46/12082/gens_27_0_288uhl4.png
UserPostedImage 
Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
16 December 2023 06:30:21
White Christmas back on for many, remarkable turnaround in the models . GFS has the cold spell starting Christmas Eve and last a good few days. GEM similar. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&run=0&time=234&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
16 December 2023 06:49:41
ECM still the Christmas Grinch though, very flat and mild for England.  
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
nsrobins
16 December 2023 06:53:24
Isolating one feature to compare EC and GFS and its about the development of the low off the eastern seaboard, now at 144. Simply, if this is too rapid and robust (EC) the pattern here goes flat. Slow and weak (GFS) and the ridge develops and we get our Northerly. Simple yes but easy to track in the next day or so as this latest saga continues.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Ally Pally Snowman
16 December 2023 06:55:56
Decent cold cluster now even for London Christmas Eve to about 27th. 

UserPostedImage
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
16 December 2023 06:59:45
ECM is awful once again though and has never really bought into this Christmas cold spell. So a  big festive battle between the big 2 models.  
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
16 December 2023 07:46:35
WX temps show cold weather making a steady return to Europe in week 2, though not much colder if at all for the norm for this time of year. Freezing weather, well back in Russia in week 1, reaches Poland plus  forward thrusts to the Alps and the Scottish Highlands. Pptn in week 1 in N Atlantic incl Britain (Scotland not exceptional despite this weekend's weather warning) and in a band aligned along the Baltic; in week 2 the Atlantic area hangs on but the band slips S-wards to the Alps.

GFS Op - HP close to S England now with strong SW-lies for the N being incorporated into a new cell in the C Atlantic 1050mb Wed 20th with winds going round to NW. The HP then collapses and a 2-day N-ly blast starts on Christmas Eve with a hint of small LP entrained in the flow 1000mb Cornwall Christmas Day. It doesn't last - new ridge of HP from the S by Thu 28th which in turn topples and lets in a cold NW-ly for Jan 1st.

ECM - the N-ly outburst for Christmas is replaced by a NW-ly soon turning W-ly on Boxing Dayra as the controlling LP is placed further east.

GEFS - sudden drop from mild to cool Wed 20th and after a short rebound Fri 22nd, goes cool through to Thu 28th, admittedly with poor agreement but with op and control leading the cool pack

 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Ally Pally Snowman
16 December 2023 08:57:59
ECM ensembles look better about half seem to follow the GFS Op. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
16 December 2023 09:03:04
Hopefully this will go down to the wire. A rerun of the 1999 Christmas debacle would be awesome. Although, I'm sure most would prefer snow on the ground. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Saint Snow
16 December 2023 09:26:20

Hopefully this will go down to the wire. A rerun of the 1999 Christmas debacle would be awesome. Although, I'm sure most would prefer snow on the ground. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



You are such a miserable git, mate 
😂
 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
David M Porter
16 December 2023 09:45:02

Hopefully this will go down to the wire. A rerun of the 1999 Christmas debacle would be awesome. Although, I'm sure most would prefer snow on the ground. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Personally, I've always considered a white Christmas to only happen when there is any real amount of snow lying on the ground on 25th Dec, no matter whether or not any snow actually falls on that day.

IIRC we didn't have any snow falling here on Xmas Day in either 2009 or 2010, but there was still a great deal of snow on the ground on both occasions so both were white Christmases as far as I was concerned.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+1
UncleAlbert
16 December 2023 09:45:26

ECM ensembles look better about half seem to follow the GFS Op. 

And significantly, some support from the GEM.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

The Beast from the East
16 December 2023 09:50:00

Hopefully this will go down to the wire. A rerun of the 1999 Christmas debacle would be awesome. Although, I'm sure most would prefer snow on the ground. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Yes, very concerning to see ECM op stick to its guns and the dreaded high from the south, if the op doesnt change this evening then I think you may need to start publishing links to the Samaritans. The netweather crowd likely to commit collective meltdown
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
+1
Joe Bloggs
16 December 2023 09:53:28
NIMBY POST

I think, today, I have seen my favourite ever chart for snow here. Ever.

P27 of the 00z GFS. It has absolutely gone off on one. Don’t think I’ve ever seen one better. It almost looks impossible - atmospheric physics will not have allowed this scenario to play out many times in the past. Absolutely copious amounts of snow for large parts of the country - a genuine blizzard. Shame it’s so theoretical !  

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP27EU00_258_2.png 
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP27EU00_258_1.png 




 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
+2
Brian Gaze
16 December 2023 09:54:26

You are such a miserable git, mate 
😂
 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



😂 It's the uncertainty of the weather in the UK which keeps the website going! 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+2

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