theweatheroutlook

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Downpour
16 December 2023 18:27:39

Maybe a Geography lesson then………as Cairngorm is not in the NW Quadrant 👍🏻

Originally Posted by: fullybhoy 



yes, it is. As is Edinburgh, and indeed most/all of Scotland. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
doctormog
16 December 2023 18:47:22

Nothing in my post was wrong. Some models imply snow on the top of Cairngorm. Less so elsewhere, and certainly not for the vast majority of UK population. Mild is the form horse. Let’s see who is right. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



Okay back up your post with data from this morning that suggest that the snow level is restricted to over 4000ft (top of Cairngorm) and your point will have more credibility. I can disprove it at the drop of a hat. Respecting an untruth ad naseum doesn’t make it right. Stating that you are wrong is neither patronising or wishcasting, just factual I’m afraid. I don’t really want to embarrass you by posting a whole load of charts from this morning’s runs showing snow well below 4000ft as it will drag this thread off topic and there are far more interesting things to talk about. 

I frankly have little interest in the weather in Chingford but I do have issues with you posting blatantly misleading information and doubling down on it or trying to shift the goalposts to insinuate you were right. I understand if you don’t care about the weather outside your locality, that’s not unusual nor unfair.

Let’s start with the GFS data which is largely similar to this morning, bearing in mind Aberdeen is well over 3500 feet lower than the top of Cairngorm: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/weather/will-it-snow/aberdeen 

Or perhaps you want to tell Brian his data are wrong? Remember when you reply stick to your original point that you didn’t like me picking you up on and don’t shift the goalposts.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
doctormog
16 December 2023 18:52:08
On a different note, and albeit with a lot of scatter, nice to see the Christmas Day period is looking seasonal at least on the 12z GEFS data.

London

UserPostedImage

Aberdeen

UserPostedImage

And of course the Cairngorms 😇

UserPostedImage

 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
squish
16 December 2023 19:06:26
ECM waivers and then sets things up nicely 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
David M Porter
16 December 2023 19:17:53

As sure as eggs are eggs and as certain as David Porter “recalling” something in a post. 

 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



😁😉

Good to see you posting here again, Matty. 👍
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
The Beast from the East
16 December 2023 19:27:31

ECM waivers and then sets things up nicely 

Originally Posted by: squish 



The Day 10 mean should be more interesting. Lets see if the high to the south is weaker than the morning. Still cant get that clean blast, like a constipated northerly this one.
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Downpour
16 December 2023 19:33:40

Okay back up your post with data from this morning that suggest that the snow level is restricted to over 4000ft (top of Cairngorm) and your point will have more credibility. I can disprove it at the drop of a hat. Respecting an untruth ad naseum doesn’t make it right. Stating that you are wrong is neither patronising or wishcasting, just factual I’m afraid. I don’t really want to embarrass you by posting a whole load of charts from this morning’s runs showing snow well below 4000ft as it will drag this thread off topic and there are far more interesting things to talk about. 

I frankly have little interest in the weather in Chingford but I do have issues with you posting blatantly misleading information and doubling down on it or trying to shift the goalposts to insinuate you were right. I understand if you don’t care about the weather outside your locality, that’s not unusual nor unfair.

Let’s start with the GFS data which is largely similar to this morning, bearing in mind Aberdeen is well over 3500 feet lower than the top of Cairngorm: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/weather/will-it-snow/aberdeen 

Or perhaps you want to tell Brian his data are wrong? Remember when you reply stick to your original point that you didn’t like me picking you up on and don’t shift the goalposts.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



where did I say restricted to it? Those are your words not mine. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
+1
Gandalf The White
16 December 2023 19:55:22

where did I say restricted to it? Those are your words not mine. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



The words from your post this morning which triggered this protracted exchange:

“Looks mild if not very mild for the populous areas of the UK on and around Christmas Day. Some modelling implies snowfall on the top of Cairngorm, where nobody lives.”

Those words clearly imply that snow will be restricted to the highest ground in Scotland. Indeed your words suggest that some modelling doesn’t even imply snow for the highest ground even in Scotland.

As for ‘mild or very mild’, as of this morning there was little to no support for ‘mild if not very mild’ weather for populous areas. For some days the output has signalled average to cool.

As this thread is for discussion of the model output I am somewhat surprised that someone of your experience should be misinterpreting the charts.

🙂
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
doctormog
16 December 2023 20:00:06

where did I say restricted to it? Those are your words not mine. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

You suggested or implied that and even pointed out that no one lived there. This falls in to the shifting the goalposts category. Almost like going from the “top of Cairngorm” to “the NW quadrant” to then suggesting the latter is in fact all of Scotland.  🤣
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
16 December 2023 21:17:36
This morning's charts had GFS with a strong northerly for Xmas Day/Boxing day with a real chance of widespread snow in Britain, while ECM was a tame pussycat with W-lies; this evening they've swapped over and ECM looks like the one with snow (at least for the north) on Boxing Day while GFS 12z Op has shunted the whole northerly thing to the other side of the N Sea
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gusty
16 December 2023 22:59:06
I think there are some crossed wires here. Downpour was obviously referring to NS Robins forecast/ suggestion of snow being restricted to Ben Nevis. Lesson learned here is that updated model runs need to be crossed referenced and checked before making wildly inaccurate statements on a public forum.

Back to the NWP and it appears that the models are still struggling with the jet alignment circa 8-10 days, understandable given the timescales but obviously its receiving a lot of scrutiny at the moment for obvious reasons.

IMO the NW cold spell has been a fairly consistent feature for a few days now. Variations on a theme of course in terms of intensity and duration.

More runs needed.

 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Retron
17 December 2023 05:20:22
At first glance, not very exciting this morning (at least down here). However, the ensembles, as usual, show it's far from settled. I particularly like this one, which would end 53 years of waiting...

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/50/20427/gensfr_5_2_192ljm2.png 
UserPostedImage
Leysdown, north Kent
+3
CField
17 December 2023 05:21:14
Looking at latest 0z run this morning out to 384hrs as much as it will not verify like that it does still show those strong heights to the sw s of uk.This factor I feel will be the major player driver in the cold elusive UK having a mild winter despite occasional close proximities of cold air....and will always be the scupperer to cold chances in the closer time frame...
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Ally Pally Snowman
17 December 2023 07:00:52

At first glance, not very exciting this morning (at least down here). However, the ensembles, as usual, show it's far from settled. I particularly like this one, which would end 53 years of waiting...

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/50/20427/gensfr_5_2_192ljm2.png 
UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Yes please I'm in West Dorset for Christmas. 

But as you say its slim pickings this morning a big step back from anything interesting especially down here. The 6c CET is back on!
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
17 December 2023 07:07:43

Yes please I'm in West Dorset for Christmas. 

But as you say it’s slim pickings this morning a big step back from anything interesting especially down here. The 6c CET is back on!

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



And severe boring weather to come.  
+2
ballamar
17 December 2023 07:16:58
Almost looks like in the blink of an eye it has favoured a milder outcome for the south! Still a couple of teasing ENS members but would need a big shift back to feel the potential excitement. But small changes can create big outcomes
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 December 2023 08:09:44
WX temps summary changes again - instead of yesterday's advance of cold weather westwards, it shows more of a concentration to the north. Week1 has W Europe milder than norm and Russia even more so (though Scandinavia is still cold); in week 2 the freezing boundary covers Russia (as indeed it should in December!), N Scandinavia (v cold) and Iceland with Scotland on the edge. Pptn in week 1 on N Atlantic incl Britain (not much in the SE) and across to the Baltic; much the same in week 2 but heavier in the W.

GFS Op (with a caveat that other ens members are rather different - see Retron's post above) - HP to the S being absorbed into a new cell in C Atlantic with winds going round to the NW and staying there to Xmas Day when HP moves to Spain and LPs run E-wards from the Atlantic with a general W-trend for Britain's weather through to New Year (955mb Fair Isle Thu 28th, 980mb Dogger Sun 31st, 960mb developing in mid-Atlantic Tue 2nd)

ECM - similar to GFS but winds a bit more W-ly than GEFS and HP closer, over France rather than Spain.

JET - directly W-E and strong over Scotland in the week before Christmas, another burst on Thu 28th over England, at other times irregular but with streaks not far from Britain.

GEFS - temp dips sharply to below norm Wed 20th, brief rebound before a long period with mean near norm (in S) or a bit below (in N) but with absolutely no consistency from Fri 22nd onwards.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Retron
17 December 2023 08:16:12

Almost looks like in the blink of an eye it has favoured a milder outcome for the south! Still a couple of teasing ENS members but would need a big shift back to feel the potential excitement. But small changes can create big outcomes

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Don't look at the long range ECM ensembles then, they're even worse - a well above average January to come.

Even the short range ECM ensembles this morning paint a pretty bleak picture: for here, for Christmas Day, there's an 80% chance of a high in double figures... i.e. the usual Christmas dross.

If you were further north, say in Aberdeen, it's still pretty rubbish - the median is a high of 7C.

I'd love to think ECM has got it wrong, but you'd be a brave man to bet against it!

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202312170000&epsgram=classical_15d&lat=57.1333&lon=-2.1&station_name=Aberdeen 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_extended_meteogram?base_time=202312160000&lat=51.4333&lon=-1.0&station_name=Reading 

(Link to ECM ensembles, you can search for your own town by typing it in).

The mildly irritating thing is that it couldn't be more atypical aloft - the vortex remains weak, and continues to be forecast to be in the bottom decile in the coming weeks...

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202312160000 
 
Leysdown, north Kent
doctormog
17 December 2023 08:25:03
I guess one positive is that if it has changed so much over the past 12/24 hours (and it certainly has!) then it coukd in theory shift back again. I think this evening will give a better indication if this is a wobble or a stronger trend away from cold.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 December 2023 08:30:55
BBC forecaster with a map for Christmas Day showing a cold/mild boundary from NW Scotland to the Wash and not very helpfully saying that the boundary could easily move north or south from there.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
Heavy Weather 2013
17 December 2023 08:39:58

I guess one positive is that if it has changed so much over the past 12/24 hours (and it certainly has!) then it coukd in theory shift back again. I think this evening will give a better indication if this is a wobble or a stronger trend away from cold.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Agreed, while there are a few options in the ensembles you have to remain hopeful. Crucial 12z todays. Imagine if the op had been P17
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
BJBlake
17 December 2023 08:44:52

I guess one positive is that if it has changed so much over the past 12/24 hours (and it certainly has!) then it coukd in theory shift back again. I think this evening will give a better indication if this is a wobble or a stronger trend away from cold.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Te average chart still showing a consistent cooling trend - albeit the -5 850 Hpa has shifted north a hundred and fifty miles in this latest run.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
BJBlake
17 December 2023 08:48:50
GFS and ECM jet pattern into late FI has flattened in this latest run against the previous trend. This is not a great sign. The Jet also remains strong, which is mostly hopeless for any blocking patterns.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Gandalf The White
17 December 2023 09:24:00

BBC forecaster with a map for Christmas Day showing a cold/mild boundary from NW Scotland to the Wash and not very helpfully saying that the boundary could easily move north or south from there.

Originally Posted by: DEW 



That was the message last night as well. The GFS 00z ensembles show a 15-20c spread in 850 hPa temperature for Xmas Eve, a week from now.  Some variants bring the cold south 2 days earlier, some seem not to bring it south at all.

When we seem to be bang in the battleground I don’t think any firm conclusions are possible, and probably not until the end of this week, unless much stronger signals emerge, one way or the other.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
The Beast from the East
17 December 2023 09:25:30
ECM has been consistently woeful, ICON follows it as usual. Oh dear, another year to strike off, sadly I dont remember 1981, was hoping for one white xmas before I die, looks like it will never happen
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

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