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Brian Gaze
17 December 2023 16:51:41

I'm sure I read something recently that said the current El Nino was in rapid decline to neutrality?

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 



NOAA:
Synopsis:  El Niño is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (60% chance).

The most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 [Fig. 6]. Based on the latest forecasts, there is now a 54% chance of a "historically strong" El Niño during the November-January season


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gandalf The White
17 December 2023 17:13:28

My interpretation was indeed based on the modelling, it was just different to that of others. To my eye, on the balance of modelling, snowfall was always a very limited affair, likely only away from the vast majority of the UK population. That was my reading. It does seem that I will be proved right, sadly. Where I might be proved wrong was forecasting a dry day on Christmas Day. Sadly it now looks like rain is likely, for the fourth or fifth year running.

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



But you also said ‘mild or very mild’ when that was barely even being shown in a minority of the ensemble members. 🙂

As for snowfall, ‘… a very limited affair …. Away from the vast majority of the population’ is materially different to yesterday’s’on the top of the Cairngorms where nobody lives’….. 🙂

I do understand the desire to try to defend what you said; I just think an acknowledgement that you were making a forecast based on something besides the models would be helpful.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
17 December 2023 17:15:50

NOAA:
Synopsis:  El Niño is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (60% chance).

The most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 [Fig. 6]. Based on the latest forecasts, there is now a 54% chance of a "historically strong" El Niño during the November-January season


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Yes, that’s what I have been reading; it’s what I based my prediction that 2024 could touch 1.6c or 1.7c above pre-industrial levels on. But of course that doesn’t preclude a cold spell in January and/or February since El Niños favour that pattern.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Brian Gaze
17 December 2023 17:24:14
UKM Global looks quite interesting for Christmas.

UserPostedImage 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Snow Hoper
17 December 2023 17:27:01

NOAA:
Synopsis:  El Niño is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (60% chance).

The most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 [Fig. 6]. Based on the latest forecasts, there is now a 54% chance of a "historically strong" El Niño during the November-January season


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Found it....

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/when-will-el-nino-end-answer-forecast 

It does appear to suggest what you've quoted. I just wish I'd read it properly rather that focusing on the headline and skimming the rest.
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
Brian Gaze
17 December 2023 17:27:03

Yes, that’s what I have been reading; it’s what I based my prediction that 2024 could touch 1.6c or 1.7c above pre-industrial levels on. But of course that doesn’t preclude a cold spell in January and/or February since El Niños favour that pattern.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



It's worth noting the UK Met Office specifically make that correlation with "not strong events" El Nino events. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Jiries
17 December 2023 18:12:28

UKM Global looks quite interesting for Christmas.

UserPostedImage 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



990mb over the Midlands so should be snow bands from the north not dry sunny frosty northerly type.  Same set-up over Greece gave deep snow cover so why not in here too with reasonable snow cover by Xmas day.
Gandalf The White
17 December 2023 19:50:23

It's worth noting the UK Met Office specifically make that correlation with "not strong events" El Nino events. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Yes, I was pondering the difference between different strength El Niños.  Strong ones are rare, of course, so the sample size will be limited.  I guess the issue is what the extra heat does to the jet stream pattern.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


David M Porter
17 December 2023 20:22:01

Yes, I was pondering the difference between different strength El Niños.  Strong ones are rare, of course, so the sample size will be limited.  I guess the issue is what the extra heat does to the jet stream pattern.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Hi Peter 🙂

Re El Ninos, I seem to recall there was a particularly strong one back in late 2015/early 2016 and another strong one back in 1997/98. Do you know if the current one as strong as those two were?

 
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gandalf The White
17 December 2023 22:19:41

Hi Peter 🙂

Re El Ninos, I seem to recall there was a particularly strong one back in late 2015/early 2016 and another strong one back in 1997/98. Do you know if the current one as strong as those two were?

 

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



Hi David,  the 1997/98 one reached 2.4c, 2015/6 was around 2.4-2.6c depending on which source you use. The current one is now at 2.0c and is forecast to climb a little further.

Our 1997/98 winter was mild, notably so in Jan and Feb.  Winter 2015/16 was also mild and wet with more storms than usual https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wea.2823 


I wish I hadn’t looked this up……. Roll on spring…..🤔😉
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


tallyho_83
17 December 2023 23:51:13
@384z the temp@ 10hpa - gives us something to talk about I guess....

UserPostedImage


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/18_384_arctic10.png 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


CField
18 December 2023 02:20:29
UserPostedImage
I don't think gfs have handled the run up to Xmas too bad...tbh it was always going to turn out the way it did....I expect the next mini ice age NYE will go the same way...the headlines will be flooding
Favourite snowstorm
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Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
White Meadows
18 December 2023 03:14:16
Unmistakably bland pain and misery this Christmas for true coldies of the past, written all over the main 3 models.

Instead the UK is heading for a prolonged period of strong south westerly winds, rainy periods and often windy, dull weather. Very late 80’s 

Hopefully by late Jan the frosts will return but only in relief of torrid flooding, especially in the north west. 
doctormog
18 December 2023 06:21:01
Given that the last two consecutive GFS op runs had the t850 hPa values differing by around 10 to 14°C for next Monday I doubt we can still come to many form conclusions this morning re. Christmas Day’s weather.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 December 2023 07:50:01
WX temp summary shows mild for W Europe in week 1, and Russia, esp E Russia way above norm though this still means below freezing. In week 2 something rather colder appears across the north, extreme in N Norway and N Russia  extending across the ocean to Iceland, even a touch on the Highlands. Pptn widely N of the Alps in week 1 (though England and France less than most), Spain and Italy very dry. In week 2 Scandinavia becomes drier but Britain and France wetter.

GFS Op - current HP over France being absorbed by  new cell in mid-Atlantic generating not-very-cold NW-lies for Britain (a glancing blow of cold for NE Scotland) until Christmas Day, when LP appears off W Scotland and moves to the N Sea 980mb Wed 27th with brief N-ly shot (not affecting the SW). Then there's a rapid alternation between HP from the S with mild conditions (Fri 29th, Mon 1st) and LP from the NW with cold blasts (Sun 31st, Wed 3rd).

ECM - similar to GFS but the LP Wed 27th runs further N across to Norway

GEFS - rain for the S tomorrow, else mainly dry up to Christmas Eve, then rain frequent and occasionally heavy; dry to start with in the N but rain starting 21st and very heavy in the NW, not so much in the NE, snow row figures ca 70% in Inverness. Temps soon dropping off to cool, then a couple of mild bursts Thu 21st and Sun 24th, after which mean close to norm in the N while continuing to oscillate in the S - and the scramble of ens members increases as time goes by.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gusty
18 December 2023 08:02:02
Looks pretty much the same as it has done for a few days now.

Cold air arrives in the north on Sat 23rd behind a cold front that moves south through the day.
-5's never really arrive across the south.
Wintry showers follow for favoured northern areas on the 24th.
Weak ridge moves over the UK early in Christmas Day, wintry showers become confined to the far NE.
Milder air arrives in the SW late on Xmas day with a band of rain moving in, possibly preceded by a short spell of sleet/snow for high ground of NE England, Scotland late in the day, early boxing day.
Milder air back in by 26th, except possibly for northern Scotland.

Westerly returns thereafter as we search for a new rainbow to chase.
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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BJBlake
18 December 2023 08:28:56

Looks pretty much the same as it has done for a few days now.

Cold air arrives in the north on Sat 23rd behind a cold front that moves south through the day.
-5's never really arrive across the south.
Wintry showers follow for favoured northern areas on the 24th.
Weak ridge moves over the UK early in Christmas Day, wintry showers become confined to the far NE.
Milder air arrives in the SW late on Xmas day with a band of rain moving in, possibly preceded by a short spell of sleet/snow for high ground of NE England, Scotland late in the day, early boxing day.
Milder air back in by 26th, except possibly for northern Scotland.

Westerly returns thereafter as we search for a new rainbow to chase.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Just about sums it up. The average chart is slightly downgraded but maintains a polar maritime cool, wet and windy theme, but the Control run is not without interest for the south. Let’s hope for that, and a sort of messy set up that can produce local snow from embedded slow moving showers near the centre of troughs that can produce unexpected snow events in ones back yard. I remember one in the mid 90s locally in Suffolk - 3” deep in the epicentre, and one I drove through in norfolk around this time. It was 6 degrees, and a very showery northerly, and we drove into a heavy shower in Thetford Forest, rain turned to sleet, then heavy snow, and by the time I reached Lynford, it was settling well, zero degrees and like a Christmas card scene. By the time I reached Mundford, it was just wet again, no sign of any snow. 
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
18 December 2023 08:41:17
As has been said looks like a complete fail now for anything wintry down here at least over the Christmas period. 

UserPostedImage


Still some hope for our Scottish friends.  But the snow rows lower than they have been. 

UserPostedImage



 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
18 December 2023 08:44:00
ECM ensembles even more dire than the GEFS. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
18 December 2023 08:51:37
Not much Christmas cheer on offer this morning, is there?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
18 December 2023 08:53:48
Still interesting to see how things develop in the coming weeks. At the moment I would say the chance of a notably mild (as opposed to mild or quite mild) winter is very much on the table. A cold one is still possible, but I know where I'd be placing the majority of my chips right now.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gandalf The White
18 December 2023 08:56:58

ECM ensembles even more dire than the GEFS. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



I would agree that there’s not much support for a cold Xmas, but surely the only conclusion you can draw from that ensemble chart is that there’s still massive uncertainty even at 4-5 days: a 15c spread by Xmas Eve.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Brian Gaze
18 December 2023 09:12:47
MOGREPS-G favours quite a cold Christmas Day in most of the UK.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/mogreps.aspx?run=na&pschartname=1_5m_temp&charthour=183 

 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
18 December 2023 09:42:50

MOGREPS-G favours quite a cold Christmas Day in most of the UK.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/mogreps.aspx?run=na&pschartname=1_5m_temp&charthour=183 

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


pert 17 will probably be correct!
nsrobins
18 December 2023 10:04:18
It hasn't escaped my notice that what we are looking at in the next few weeks - mostly average to mild with a few cold shots - is what the UKM have been forecasting in their shorter range extended for days now.
I admit that occasionally it goes wrong in the three week range, but generally they are pretty decent at trends. You can get cross-model agreement and have the teleconnections synchronizing, El Nino's waving and glamm CODs swimming all you like, but if the experts in Exeter do not latch on to it then be wary.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO

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