WX temp summary shows mild for W Europe in week 1, and Russia, esp E Russia way above norm though this still means below freezing. In week 2 something rather colder appears across the north, extreme in N Norway and N Russia extending across the ocean to Iceland, even a touch on the Highlands. Pptn widely N of the Alps in week 1 (though England and France less than most), Spain and Italy very dry. In week 2 Scandinavia becomes drier but Britain and France wetter.
GFS Op - current HP over France being absorbed by new cell in mid-Atlantic generating not-very-cold NW-lies for Britain (a glancing blow of cold for NE Scotland) until Christmas Day, when LP appears off W Scotland and moves to the N Sea 980mb Wed 27th with brief N-ly shot (not affecting the SW). Then there's a rapid alternation between HP from the S with mild conditions (Fri 29th, Mon 1st) and LP from the NW with cold blasts (Sun 31st, Wed 3rd).
ECM - similar to GFS but the LP Wed 27th runs further N across to Norway
GEFS - rain for the S tomorrow, else mainly dry up to Christmas Eve, then rain frequent and occasionally heavy; dry to start with in the N but rain starting 21st and very heavy in the NW, not so much in the NE, snow row figures ca 70% in Inverness. Temps soon dropping off to cool, then a couple of mild bursts Thu 21st and Sun 24th, after which mean close to norm in the N while continuing to oscillate in the S - and the scramble of ens members increases as time goes by.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl