Is there going to be a 2014 CET comp?

If so, who's going to be running it?

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Is there going to be a 2014 CET comp?

If so, who's going to be running it?

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Hadley

5.6c to the 18th

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

I might be being dense here but...

Isn't a top 5 or 10 per cent of all time day, something we would expect to see a few times even in an average December ??
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Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 

We've already had the expected quota of 5% days, with plenty more to come. I would still have expected something in the news, even just a "look how mild it is, here's a look at some snowy Christmases instead" type of light piece.

You can see the stats for previous years by fiddling with the URL here:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2019/daily_meantemp_cet_2019.png 

Change the 2019 in both places to see another year - it goes back to 2013.

I've done the counting for you, though. The two numbers are days in the top 5% and then days in the bottom 5% per December

2023 (so far - more to come): 2, 1
2022: 0, 5 (a snowy spell for some)
2021: 4, 0
2020: 1, 0
2019: 0, 0
2018: 3, 0
2017: 1, 0
2016: 4, 0
2015: 18, 0
2014: 2, 0
2013: 0, 0

Originally Posted by: Retron 

I bet if you extended the analysis back a few years you would find 2009 and 2010 stacked to the nines with them , with 2010 a reverse 2015 more or less .
 

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 

I'm fiddling around to try and generate the data via Excel. It's interesting, though, as I can't get the data to match.

The Met Office provide data for daily CETs and that's easy enough to import and play with.

As an example, look at the 1st January. For the 61-90 reference period, you have (from 1961 to 1990):

9.3,7.9,7.5,7.5,7.3,7.1,6.8,6.7,6.4,6.2,6,4.8,4.3,4.1,4,3.8,3.8,3.5,2.8,2.5,2.3,2.1,1.7,1.1,-0.8,-0.9,-1.3,-1.6,-3.8,-4.9

30 data points, and easy enough to work out the mean (3.54).

That matches the black mean line on the MetO's own chart:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2023/daily_meantemp_cet_2023.png 

However, for the percentiles it gets more awkward, as 30 doesn't go into 20 - you have to interpolate. Excel does that for you, and using the appropriate formula you get:

5th percentile: -2.8
95th percentile: 7.7

However, the Met Office graph instead has about -2.6 and 9.0 - quite different, and clearly wrong.

Perhaps the data is actually for the whole range of daily data, which goes back to 1772... but guess what, Excel borks on any dates before 1900!

Let's see what happens if I add 400 years to all the dates...

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

but not sure you need to do any date handling. This is 252 data points per day so just need the 12th and 240th entries in the group sorted by temperature for each day of the month don't you ?

Originally Posted by: lanky 

The date handling comes from having to pull a specific day out of what is a very, very long list!

All you get from the Met Office is a text file, like this:

Date        Value
1772-01-01    3.2
1772-01-02    2.0
1772-01-03    2.7

So to process it in Excel, you have to (for example) pull out all the first of January dates, then you can do the maths from there. You can also do it by doing a lookup for anything ending in -01-01, but as those text labels convert to a date easily (so I thought!) I did it that way...
 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

But the date is just a text string in those files so you pull out year as left(xx,4),  month as left(right(xx,5),2) and day as right(xx,2) and then do all the  sorting and processing on them

Originally Posted by: lanky