WX summary consistent in showing a cooling for W Europe from mild in week 1 to something near norm in week 2, maybe not as much cooling as in yesterday's 00z; but the major change this morning is the expansion of extreme cold weather all the way from Norway through Finland to C Europe. This is the first time this year that such an extensive area has appeared; previously there were only patches and only in the far N. Pptn much as yesterday, week 1 for Britain, Atlantic coasts and across the S Baltic; this whole area moving S-wards into, N Spain, S France and across to the Balkans, plus some separately hanging around in the Norwegian and North Seas.
GFS Op - Storm Gerrit is multi-centred 975mb Hebrides and two more centres on the Atlantic, coalescing and passing across Scotland (more slowly than shown yesterday) to 980mb off S Norway Fri 29th with N/NW-lies for Britain. Next LP, also looking stormy, 965mb Donegal Sat 30th crossing N England to N Sea the following day with more N-lies. Then there is another 970mb Kerry Tue 2nd but this first moving N-wards before in conjunction with a drop in pressure off Spain producing a shallow trough N-S Sat 6th covering Britain. Eventually this makes contact with the semi-permanent LP in the Baltic (which has been absent for a spell further E bringing in the colder weather referred to above) and brings in NE-lies Thu 11th.
ECM - similar to GFS until Thu 4th when the N-S trough referred to above makes an early appearance, making way for a new Lp from the Atlantic 980mb off NW Ireland threatening to bring E/NE winds at least for Scotland.
GEFS - A decline in the mean temp from near normal temp to cool/cold by Fri 12th with a couple of interruptions. By Fri 12th the majority of ens members incl op & control are cooler than mean which is only being held up by just a few rather mild members. Heaviest pptn week beginning Sun 30th in S or from today in N; Scotland looking drier and indeed snowier later but rain persisting to some extent in the S.
Snow row figures suggest a moderate chance of snow at sea level in N Scotland. the synoptics above suggest that hills further S will get more.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl