theweatheroutlook

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nsrobins
28 December 2023 11:08:03

“Rumours of my death have been greatly exaggerated” – the polar vortex

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


The direction of travel over the last day or so has not been a good one if we are looking for HLB in our vicinity. A shame because momentum was gathering.
Having said that I’d keep the ensemble watch going for a few runs yet as it’s too soon to jump to conclusions.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Brian Gaze
28 December 2023 11:10:55
ECM ENS is trending colder still, but the stamps are very mixed by days 15 and 16. Not very many bring in a genuine "cold spell".

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx 

 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Joe Bloggs
28 December 2023 11:12:31

The direction of travel over the last day or so has not been a good one if we are looking for HLB in our vicinity. A shame because momentum was gathering.
Having said that I’d keep the ensemble watch going for a few runs yet as it’s too soon to jump to conclusions.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



GEFS vs EPS , place your bets. 

I often think too much focus is placed on the former - I understand why though given the sheer amount of data on offer, and how frequently it is published. 

I think Saint once called it the “FFS” and I can understand why. 🤣

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
28 December 2023 12:05:34

GEFS vs EPS , place your bets. 

I often think too much focus is placed on the former - I understand why though given the sheer amount of data on offer, and how frequently it is published. 

I think Saint once called it the “FFS” and I can understand why. 🤣

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



The GEFS 6z are even worse than the 0z . We appear to be losing the battle today very quickly.  
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
tallyho_83
28 December 2023 12:08:36

The GEFS 6z are even worse than the 0z . We appear to be losing the battle today very quickly.  

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Yes - I saw that as well, just when some interest was beginning to gather. Still not had one ground/air frost this winter so far (December). Well we did on 1st December that was it. 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Joe Bloggs
28 December 2023 12:11:36

The GEFS 6z are even worse than the 0z . We appear to be losing the battle today very quickly.  

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



If this does fall apart and we end up with continued zonality , it’s yet another lesson that teleconnections are only a very loose guide as to what may be to come. 

You don’t go far wrong if you just stick to what’s actually showing amongst the NWP (especially the ensemble data) rather than you what think may start appearing in the charts as a result of “x”. 

However I have a great deal of respect for anyone who shares their thoughts on these matters as I find it very interesting - sadly way beyond my field of understanding though! 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
+2
doctormog
28 December 2023 12:14:28

If this does fall apart and we end up with continued zonality , it’s yet another lesson that teleconnections are only a very loose guide as to what may be to come. 

You don’t go far wrong if you just stick to what’s actually showing amongst the NWP (especially the ensemble data) rather than you what think may start appearing in the charts as a result of “x”. 

However I have a great deal of respect for anyone who shares their thoughts on these matters as I find it very interesting - sadly way beyond my field of understanding though! 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



I would say it is well beyond most people's understanding (myself included) and boils down to an ever-changing range of possibilities with two scenarios rarely the same. Both fascinating and frequently frustrating.
​​​
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
fairweather
28 December 2023 12:16:52

GEFS vs EPS , place your bets. 

I often think too much focus is placed on the former - I understand why though given the sheer amount of data on offer, and how frequently it is published. 

I think Saint once called it the “FFS” and I can understand why. 🤣

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



GFS is FFS because it goes way past it's reliable timeframe. In my experience the trends for something better first appear at one week, not two or even 10 days. In reality past a week there is always a big spread with just a hint of a change. If we get a decent cold spell I bet it shows as a sudden flip around 7 days then will either get better or attenuate as it approaches.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
28 December 2023 12:26:29
There's a few people on NW who obviously have a lot of knowledge when it comes to the various teleconnections . But there is a bit of A + B = C and that is rarely the case when it comes to cold spells and the UK. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gandalf The White
28 December 2023 12:45:13

There's a few people on NW who obviously have a lot of knowledge when it comes to the various teleconnections . But there is a bit of A + B = C and that is rarely the case when it comes to cold spells and the UK. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Exactly, especially when in reality it’s more like A + B + C + D + E + [random factor] + [Sod’s Law factor] = ??
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+6
CField
28 December 2023 12:48:42
UserPostedImage
fully expecting these lines to start rising in the coming days....can't rule out a Feb 91 event but am thinking of putting the stumps away for this winter ...
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
+1
Retron
28 December 2023 13:02:28

The GEFS 6z are even worse than the 0z . We appear to be losing the battle today very quickly.  

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


4 members in the 6z vs 5 in the 0z have -10 runs for London, compared with 2 for yesterday's 6z.

Nothing compares to the 12 in yesterday's 0z run though!

 
Leysdown, north Kent
Saint Snow
28 December 2023 13:24:29
Another garden path...

Heights to our south continue to be our nemesis. They block Atlantic lows moving over mainland Europe, stopping the Greenland High from exerting it's influence far south enough. Instead they follow a more well-trodden route that brings utter shite to the UK.

A sort of Scandinavian high builds in FI, but it looks fragile with energy riding over the top of it, putting the majority of the UK under SWlies and only a small chunk of the SE in any sort of easterly feed (that's not even cold)

Move along, nothing to see.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Polar Low
28 December 2023 13:50:44
Hmmm very interesting ecm no  36 bitter easterly control very cold northerly taking a few members with it so cant be ignored.
cold signal remains around the 8th
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwfens_table.php?ext=1&x=&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&ville=Londres 
 
dagspot
28 December 2023 13:58:54
steadily turning into quite a depressing thread. Glasses consistently half empty.  I’ll stick to Current Conditions..
Neilston 600ft ASL
+1
White Meadows
28 December 2023 14:29:55

The US has so far had a benign start to the winter. But that looks set to change 2nd week of Jan as frigid artic air sweeps south down as far as the Gulf states..From past experience this usually puts the jet into overdrive

Originally Posted by: marco 79 



Cannot agree more. Constant weather reports on TV here all Christmas about lack of snow this year… falling and laying. Once the freezer kicks in it’s usually curtains for blocking over the UK. 

06z ensembles reverting to more of the same westerly dross:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=2&bw=1&geoid=49069 
 
Gandalf The White
28 December 2023 15:11:34

Cannot agree more. Constant weather reports on TV here all Christmas about lack of snow this year… falling and laying. Once the freezer kicks in it’s usually curtains for blocking over the UK. 

06z ensembles reverting to more of the same westerly dross:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=2&bw=1&geoid=49069 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



You must know that simply isn’t true. It is the behaviour of the jet stream that determines whether and where a block will form, not the existence or otherwise of a cold plunge in the US.  A frigid eastern seaboard often drives cyclogenesis but it is where the jet directs the LP system that matters: if it’s driven north towards Canada or Baffin Bay it can drive WAA north with it and induce high pressure to build; it’s simply not a case of cyclogenesis=unsettled and mild for the British Isles.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
28 December 2023 15:32:50
When we lived in Kent, in the 80s and 90s, I acquired the reputation of a weather prophet by forecasting that snow would fall in Kent about 3 weeks after the first reports of a heavy fall in the eastern USA. 

It seemed to work very well as a forecast method at that time but has certainly not worked in the last two decades. Any explanations as to the difference between then and now gratefully received.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
White Meadows
28 December 2023 15:35:41

You must know that simply isn’t true. It is the behaviour of the jet stream that determines whether and where a block will form, not the existence or otherwise of a cold plunge in the US.  A frigid eastern seaboard often drives cyclogenesis but it is where the jet directs the LP system that matters: if it’s driven north towards Canada or Baffin Bay it can drive WAA north with it and induce high pressure to build; it’s simply not a case of cyclogenesis=unsettled and mild for the British Isles.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


That’s why I said usually, not always 😉
Gusty
28 December 2023 15:42:24

Another garden path...

Heights to our south continue to be our nemesis. They block Atlantic lows moving over mainland Europe, stopping the Greenland High from exerting it's influence far south enough. Instead they follow a more well-trodden route that brings utter shite to the UK.

A sort of Scandinavian high builds in FI, but it looks fragile with energy riding over the top of it, putting the majority of the UK under SWlies and only a small chunk of the SE in any sort of easterly feed (that's not even cold)

Move along, nothing to see.

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



in fairness though Saint it was barely a dirt track at 288 yesterday. Yes, there were a fair few cold options but very few offered a similar synoptic set up and fewer still any longevity. The excitement surrounding an iffy major SSW, a hangover from the usual Xmas lack of information and a fussy head from too much Christmas sherry sent a few posters into premature extrapolation yesterday. 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



+1
tallyho_83
28 December 2023 15:59:02
What is evident and ongoing is the consistent below average temperatures for Scandinavia ...! I know I am clutching onto straws here but any NE or E winds will really help bring in the colder airmass so there is hope if we do get an easterly that it will come from a cold NE Europe/Scandinavia when previous winters have been mild for NE Europe and Scandinavia. - here's to hoping anyway...

Just wondering if this SSW fails as well??? Could be 2 months without a single ground frost...!?
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


warrenb
28 December 2023 16:29:48
GFS has the look of a model that wants to, but just can't bring itself to do it. GEM looking good, I think UKMO looks good.

Edit: GFS finally says alright then lets give it a go.
Tonbridge 45m 
Gandalf The White
28 December 2023 16:55:26

That’s why I said usually, not always 😉

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



LOL, hedging your bets. 

 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Roger Parsons
28 December 2023 16:58:18

LOL, hedging your bets. 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

A mate describes this choice of words as a "Zen Exercise". i.e. Sitting on a fence that isn't there. 😁
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+2
Retron
28 December 2023 17:03:54
Judging by the looks of the 12z GEFS, it looks like we're at another one of a long series of "a little change at the start makes a massive difference down the line" events.

Good to see, anyway, that this is as uncertain as ever. Shannon entropy is high, to use another buzzword from a previous winter!
Leysdown, north Kent
+2

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